委內瑞拉的反面教訓

“Venezuela shows that socialism always fails” is perhaps one of the most common and least interesting reactions to the collapse of that country into economic and political chaos.

有人說，“委內瑞拉的例子表明社會主義總是會失敗”，這或許是對該國陷入經濟和政治混亂最常見且最無趣的反應之一。

Without doubt, radical leftism accompanied by massive state intervention in the economy has a terrible record in Latin America, and indeed elsewhere — though whether that constitutes the entirety of “socialism”, given the prevalence of successful centre-left, self-styled socialist parties in western Europe, is highly tendentious.

毫無疑問，與政府大規模干預經濟相伴隨的激進左傾主義在拉美（實際上還有其他地方）有着糟糕的記錄——儘管鑑於西歐有很多取得成功的、自稱爲社會主義政黨的中左翼黨派，它是否構成完整的“社會主義”具有極大的爭議性。

More interesting is whether progressive redistributive governments can ever succeed in poor countries marked by deep inequality. This particularly applies to those rich in minerals and hence vulnerable to the “resource curse” that unbalances their economies and poisons their politics.

更令人感興趣的是，推行再分配政策的進步主義政府能否在不平等現象非常嚴重的窮國取得成功？這尤其適用於那些礦產資源豐富、從而容易遭受“資源詛咒”的國家，“資源詛咒”讓這些國家的經濟失衡，政治腐化。

Venezuela shows what happens when it all goes wrong. Possession of the world’s largest proven oil reserves during the decade of high global hydrocarbon prices after 2005 gave the former president Hugo Chávez and his successor Nicolás Maduro plenty of rope to strangle their country. True, social spending increased, but money was sprayed around with huge inefficiency — and oil prices could not forever defy gravity.

委內瑞拉的例子表明在出錯的時候會發生什麼。在2005年後的十年裏，全球碳氫化合物價格保持高位，而委內瑞拉擁有世界上最豐富的已探明石油儲量，這讓前任總統烏戈?查韋斯(Hugo Chávez)及其繼任者尼古拉斯?馬杜羅(Nicolás Maduro)能夠爲所欲爲，窒息國家發展。沒錯，社會支出增加了，但資金配置極度缺乏效率，而油價不可能永遠漲上天。

Meanwhile, hundreds of companies were nationalised and often run into the ground by the regime’s cronies. Multiple exchange rates were used to dole out hard currency to favoured recipients, a currency black market flourished and the basic functioning of the economy collapsed.

與此同時，數百家公司被國有化，而且往往被與政權關係密切的人士搞得一團糟。委內瑞拉還推出復匯率制，用於向受青睞的對象發放硬通貨，外匯黑市興起，經濟基本功能崩潰。

Meanwhile Bolivia, another, much poorer, South American country, has shown that it is perfectly possible to use oil and gas revenue to achieve widescale redistribution. In the 11 years that Evo Morales has served as Bolivia’s president — and despite a similar line in frothy revolutionary rhetoric to Messrs Chávez and Maduro — he has managed to reduce the poverty rate in the country by a third while maintaining economic stability.

同時另一個更窮的南美國家玻利維亞的情況表明，利用石油和天然氣收入來實現全面再分配是完全有可能的。在埃沃?莫拉萊斯(Evo Morales)擔任玻利維亞總統的11年裏——儘管他所發表的空洞革命性言論中也有與查韋斯和馬杜羅類似的措辭——他成功地在保持經濟穩定的情況下讓該國的貧困率下降了三分之一。

Mr Morales must be one of the world’s few presidents who inveighs fervently against the iniquities of global capitalism while receiving regular plaudits from the International Monetary Fund. Like Mr Chávez, he has increased social spending, though not always efficiently. Unlike Venezuela, Bolivia has maintained fiscal buffers, cushioning public spending from falls in the oil and gas price.

世界上只有少數幾個總統在猛烈攻擊全球資本主義不平等現象的同時還能時不時獲得國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的讚譽，莫拉萊斯必定是其中之一。與查韋斯一樣，他加大了社會支出，儘管效率並不總是很高。與委內瑞拉不同，玻利維亞維持了財政緩衝，減輕了油氣價格下跌對公共支出的影響。

Meanwhile, although the rest of the economy remains under-developed, Mr Morales’s government has been restrained in taking over private businesses, including those owned by foreign investors, and the currency has been pegged against the dollar at a reasonably competitive rate with free movement of capital.

與此同時，儘管其他經濟領域依然發展不足，但莫拉萊斯的政府一直剋制着不去收購私人企業，包括那些由外國投資者所有的企業，而且還實施了以頗具競爭力匯率的盯住美元的匯率制度，並允許資本自由流動。

The point is not that Mr Morales is a technocratic wizard who has come up with an unprecedented way of managing natural resources. He has simply been one of the few leaders who has — thus far — managed to stop a mineral-rich country becoming an all-out scramble for loot.

重點不在於莫拉萊斯是一個提出史無前例的管理自然資源方法的技術能手。他簡直是迄今成功阻止一個礦產資源豐富的國家淪爲一個混亂劫掠場的少數領導人之一。

Botswana has performed a similar trick in sub-Saharan Africa using its diamond wealth, and kept it going for more than half a century. Whether this can endure in Bolivia is very unclear. There are serious reasons for concern about the political situation, including Mr Morales’s plans to ignore a referendum barring him from seeking a fourth term in office, and some high-profile instances of corruption.

撒哈拉以南非洲地區的博茨瓦納利用其鑽石資源財富實施了類似的策略，並保持了逾半個世紀。玻利維亞能否持續這種模式目前尚不清楚。有理由對玻利維亞的政治局勢感到擔憂，包括莫拉萊斯無視公投結果仍計劃謀求第四個任期，以及一些備受矚目的腐敗事件。

But economically, there is no particular reason that Bolivia’s redistributive model, whether or not called socialism, must collapse. True, if low oil prices persist, there will have to be some retrenchment in government spending and Bolivia will need to find other sources of growth to continue the process of reducing poverty. But the buffers that have been built up means this can be done gradually.

但從經濟上來說，沒有任何具體理由表明玻利維亞的再分配模式——無論是否被稱爲社會主義——必定崩盤。的確，如果低油價持續，政府支出將不得不削減，玻利維亞將需要找到其他增長源來繼續扶貧進程。但已經建立起來的財政緩衝意味着可以慢慢做這些事情。

Venezuela is what happens when a corrupt and thuggish socialist regime gets hold of oil revenues and then destroys the economy. But it does not follow that large-scale income redistribution in a natural resource state must necessarily end in disaster.

當一個腐敗而且野蠻的社會主義政權控制石油收入，隨後又摧毀經濟的時候會發生什麼情況？委內瑞拉就是例子。但這並不意味着，在自然資源豐富的國家，大規模收入再分配必定會以災難結束。