韓國有望超過中國成爲亞洲頭號軍火出口國
In South Korea, the business of war is booming.
在韓國，戰爭生意正在蓬勃發展。
Military exports have soared nearly 1,100 per cent since 2009 as the nation’s arms manufacturers thrive off growing global instability, competitive pricing and the re-emergence of demand for conventional weapons of warfare — the country’s speciality.
自2009年以來，韓國的軍火出口猛增了近1100%。日益加劇的全球動盪、有競爭力的定價以及傳統戰爭武器（韓國的強項）需求重現，推動韓國軍火製造商茁壯成長。
Now, analysts believe the country is on track to overtake China as the region’s leading arms exporter by the end of the decade.
分析師現在認爲，到2010年代末，韓國有望超過中國成爲該地區的頭號軍火出口國。
“Globally, South Korea is in a good spot,” said Paul Choi, head of research at CLSA Securities Korea. “[Its] structural growth in defence equipment is already ahead of its own target. By 2020, it will pass China to become Asia’s arms powerhouse.”
里昂證券(CLSA)韓國研究部門主管Paul Choi表示：“從全球來看，韓國的情況不錯。其國防裝備的結構性增長已超越了自身的目標。到2020年，它將超過中國成爲亞洲的軍售龍頭老大。”
The boom is being fuelled by rising geopolitical tensions in Asia and eastern Europe.
亞洲和東歐不斷升級的地緣政治緊張局勢正在助長這股發展勢頭。
China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea has prompted the region’s emerging markets, such as Indonesia and the Philippines, to devote more to defence, but with a keen eye on price.
中國在南中國海日益強硬的態度促使該地區的新興市場國家——如印度尼西亞、菲律賓——加大了國防投入，但它們對價格較爲敏感。
Here, South Korea’s arms exporters, including Korea Aerospace Industries and Hanwha Techwin, have proven extremely competitive, often sweetening deals with the transfer of technology.
韓國航空宇宙產業株式會社(Korea Aerospace Industries)和韓華(Hanwha)旗下的Techwin等韓國軍火出口商已證明自身極具競爭力，它們常常以技術轉讓爲條件來增加交易的吸引力。
The nation also carries little geopolitical or historical baggage and can cater to the rising demand for weaponry in the Middle East, Indian subcontinent or Southeast Asia with less sensitivity than some of its nearest neighbours.
此外，韓國揹負的地緣政治和歷史包袱很少，與它的幾個鄰國相比，它可以滿足中東、印度次大陸和東南亞不斷增長的軍火需求而不致引起那麼大的關切。
“Trucks and submarines to Indonesia, comms equipment to Iraq, ships to the UK . . . South Korea has a diverse industry and is selling to a wide range of users,” said Ben Moores, a senior defence analyst at IHS Markit. “China, meanwhile, is dependent on Pakistan and Sri Lanka.”
IHS Markit高級防務分析師本.穆爾斯(Ben Moores)表示：“向印尼賣卡車和潛艇，向伊拉克賣通訊設備，向英國賣艦隻……韓國擁有多元化的國防產業，客戶範圍廣泛。中國則依靠巴基斯坦和斯里蘭卡。”
Last year, South Korea exported $871m of equipment — up from $73m in 2009. For 2016, Mr Moores expects the total to surpass $1.2bn.
去年，韓國軍火出口額達8.71億美元，而2009年爲7300萬美元。穆爾斯預計，2016年韓國軍火出口總額會超過12億美元。
China’s arms exports, in comparison, declined from $1.9bn in 2013 to $1.6bn last year. IHS Markit predicts Beijing will drop out of the world’s top 10 ranking next year.
相比之下，中國軍火出口額從2013年的19億美元降至去年的16億美元。IHS Markit預計，明年中國將在全球排行榜上跌出前十名。
