爲什麼機器人勞動力崛起是件好事
Will robots take over the workforce? And if--or when--they do, what jobs will be left for us humans?
機器人是否會成爲主要勞動力？如果會的話，那麼等到那一天，人類還剩什麼工作可做呢？These were among the biggest workplace and management questions at South by Southwest Interactive in Austin over the weekend. Several of the panels at the sprawling tech conference focused on our future robot overlords, with many of the discussions taking a rosy view that the workforce will indeed be dominated by robots in the not-too-far future--and why that is a good thing.
上週末在美國得克薩斯州奧斯汀(Austin)舉行的西南偏南(South by Southwest Interactive)大會上，上述問題成了工作場所和管理方面討論最熱烈的話題。此次大會的幾個座談小組重點討論未來機器人獨霸勞動力市場的情況，很多參與討論的人都樂觀地認爲，在不太遙遠的未來，機器人確實會在工作場所佔據主導地位，並且討論了爲何說這是件好事。Carl Bass, the chief executive of Autodesk, acknowledged that workplace automation has eliminated or reduced many manufacturing jobs, and will continue to do so in the future, leading to major shifts in the labor market. Entire industries, such as trucking, will eventually be disrupted by robotic advances like self-driving cars, he said. (Bass cited the book, ' The Second Machine Age,' by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee as a source for this robot-heavy scenario.)
歐特克公司(Autodesk Inc.)的首席執行長巴斯(Carl Bass)承認，工廠自動化已取締或減少了許多製造業崗位，而且未來這一情況將會繼續下去，這將導致勞動力市場發生巨大轉變。他說，像貨車運輸這樣的整個行業最終將被無人駕駛汽車等機器人技術進步所顛覆。（巴斯援引布林約爾鬆(Erik Brynjolfsson)和麥卡菲(Andrew McAfee)共同撰寫的《第二個機器時代》(The Second Machine Age)來論證他的這一設想。）
But, Bass asked: 'Are the jobs lost to automation ones that you would want for your children?' Few parents, he said, dreamed their kids would someday become fuel pumpers or elevator operators, jobs already replaced by automation. In the next 30 years, Bass added, smart machines and robots will outnumber humans on the planet.
但巴斯也問道，那些被自動化取代的工作是你想讓孩子以後從事的職業嗎？他說，幾乎沒有家長會希望自己的孩子有朝一日成爲加油站的加油員或電梯操作員，這種工作已實現自動化。巴斯補充說，未來30年，全球智能機器和機器人的總量將超過全球人口總量。Bass presented some outlandish ideas to help societies deal with the structural changes generated by a robot-heavy workforce, including taxing economic output rather than income, or implementing a ' negative income tax,' in which governments pay citizens a stipend in order to guarantee a level of income.
爲了幫助社會應對機器人主導勞動力市場所引發的結構性變化，巴斯提出了一些奇特的想法，例如對經濟產出而非收入徵稅，或實施“負所得稅”――即政府向公民支付津貼以確保某一收入水平。'With our creativity and imagination, we will find harmony with the robots,' Bass said.
巴斯說，憑藉我們的創造力和想象力，我們應該能與機器人和諧相處。Meanwhile, other discussions focused on identifying jobs were likely to remain safe from robots. Heather Knight, a Carnegie Mellon roboticist who studies social interactions between humans and robots, suggested that hairdressers might be safe. But not because robots can't cut hair--she said the relationship between hairdressers and their clients simply can't be automated. (And, she added, some people might be wary of a robot holding a sharp blade so close to their necks, although plenty of robots already perform delicate surgery.)
與此同時，其他討論的焦點是確認哪些工作可能不會被機器人所取代。卡內基梅隆大學(Carnegie Mellon)研究人類和機器人之間社會互動的機器人專家奈特(Heather Knight)暗示，美髮師這一職業或許不會受到機器人的影響。她說，這並不是因爲機器人不能剪頭髮，而是因爲美髮師和客戶之間的關係無法實現自動化。她還說，雖然有很多機器人已經在爲人類進行精微的外科手術，但對於機器人拿着鋒利的刀片如此接近他們的脖子，一些人可能會心存戒備。Another job deemed safe? Roboticist.
另一個不會受機器人影響的工作是什麼？是機器人專家。
