夢幻顯示背後 現在買4K電視機划算嗎

There are few things consumers love more than their television sets. Typically, when the industry introduces a new standard or technology, be it color sets, flat screens or high def, the stampede to the mall is quick and impressive.

幾乎沒有什麼東西比電視機更受消費者喜愛了。一般來講，當這個行業引進新的標準或技術時，不管是彩色、純平還是高清，大家都會飛快涌向賣場，人潮歎爲觀止。

This time there may not be a stampede.

這一次，可能就沒有人潮涌動了。

Ultra HD television, sometimes referred to as 4K, is widely seen as a leap forward in picture quality. More pixels and big screens -- some of which are curved, for an immersive viewing experience -- do raise the bar in TV watching, critics say.

有時候又被稱爲4K電視機的超高清(Ultra HD)電視機，被普遍視爲畫質的一場大躍進。批評者說，更多的像素和更大的屏幕――有些屏幕是彎曲的，形成一種沉浸式的觀看體驗――確實提高了看電視的標準。

What's more, as production ramps up, prices are coming down to where some of the lower-end 4K sets are competitive with large-screen HD sets.

另外，隨着生產規模擴大，價格正在下降，某些低端4K電視機已經可與大屏幕高清(HD)電視機競爭。

But have they fallen far enough for consumers en masse to buy? Or should shoppers wait until prices fall further?

但是否已經下降到讓普通消費者踊躍購買的水平？或者，消費者是不是應該等到價格進一步下降的時候？

Critics say some technical issues remain, such as concerns about whether there is sufficient bandwidth in most homes to support uninterrupted viewing. There is also relatively little to watch, so far, in 4K.

批評者說，有些技術問題仍然存在，比如多數住宅的帶寬是否足以支持流暢觀看這樣的顧慮。目前4K格式的內容也相對稀少。

But supporters argue that a 4K television set, given its ability to improve current HD picture quality, among other reasons, is a better purchase even at today's prices than a large-screen HDTV, which threatens to lock viewers into an increasingly inferior standard for years to come.

但支持者認爲，考慮到能夠提升當前高清畫面的質量和其他一些因素，即便是以今天的價格，購買4K電視機也比購買大屏幕高清電視機划算，購買後者很有可能讓看電視的人在未來好幾年都侷限於一種日顯低劣的標準。

It's better to wait, says Brett Sappington, director of research at Dallas-based Parks Associates. Jack Wetherill, senior market analyst at British-based Futuresource Consulting, says 4K is a good buy already.

達拉斯Parks Associates研究總監佈雷特・薩平頓(Brett Sappington)說，最好是再等等。英國Futuresource Consulting公司的高級市場分析師傑克・韋瑟里爾(Jack Wetherill)則說，4K電視機已經值得買了。

Yes: If You Buy It Now, You Are Set For Many Years to Come

買：如果現在買，今後好多年都不用換了

When consumers shop for a large-screen TV, two requirements tend to be at the top of the checklist: a 'wow' factor, and an affordable price.

消費者選購大屏幕電視機的時候，有兩個要求是他們最看重的，一是驚豔的元素，二是便宜的價格。

Ultra-high-definition, or 4K, television sets meet the first requirement with flying colors. Ultra HD offers picture quality way beyond what is widely available in homes today: four times the picture resolution of today's HD. That means four times the number of pixels, the tiny points that make up the image. The greater array of colors and the sharper contrast, especially in the large-screen format, give viewers a feeling of being immersed in what they're watching.

超高清(Ultra HD)電視機或曰4K電視機輕而易舉地滿足了第一個要求。它的畫質遠遠超過今天家庭普通電視機的水平：其分辨率是今天高清電視機的四倍，也就是說，像素（組成畫面的小點）爲後者的四倍。更豐富的色彩和更強烈的對比度，特別是通過大屏幕的形式展現出來，給觀看者一種沉浸於所觀看內容的感覺。

There's your 'wow' factor.

這就是你所要的驚豔元素。

Long-Term Purchase

長遠投資

As for an affordable price, while 4K is still a relatively new technology, and price tags admittedly were astronomical to begin with, prices now have fallen to where they are competitive with high-end alternatives in the large-screen HD market. Today, 4K sets from leading brands with 55-inch screens are available for $2,300. It would be less expensive to buy a screen of the same size in 1080p. But large-screen TVs are a long-term purchase and represent great value for money. As the average U.S. household will keep its new TV for around seven years and use it for five hours a day, this equates to just 18 cents per hour used.

至於價格是否可承受的問題，雖然4K電視機仍然是一種相對新潁的技術，一開始也是衆所周知的天價，但現在的價格已經下降到可比高端大屏幕高清電視機的水平。今天花2,300美元就可以買到一臺一線品牌的55英寸4K電視機。同樣尺寸的1080p電視機更加便宜，但大屏幕電視機是一筆長期投資，物有所值。鑑於美國普通家庭會將新購電視機保留七年左右的時間且每天使用五個小時，這等於每用一個小時僅花18美分。

Larger screens and better picture quality are the wave of the future. Consumers are buying increasingly large TV sets (27% of last year's sales were 50-inch screens and larger, and 10% were 60-inch and above). As a result, 1080p picture quality is reaching its limits on larger screens. Shoppers who buy a bigger screen with 1080p now will be acquiring a TV that will be quickly outdated in terms of quality in the near future.

更大的屏幕和更好的畫質是未來的潮流。消費者購買的電視機正變得越來越大（去年銷量當中27%是50英寸及以上，10%是60英寸及以上）。因此大屏幕上1080p的畫質正在逼近極限。以畫質而論，現在購買1080p的大屏幕電視機，不遠的將來就會很快過時。

TV manufacturers are solidly behind UHD. Unlike 3-D television, 4K does not require the inconvenience of special glasses. Those who choose their 4K set carefully will be buying a television that is future-proofed for years to come. The key technology building blocks, HDMI 2.0, an interface for transferring video and audio data which supports 4K resolution, and HEVC, a video compression format, both of which will be necessary to enjoy the full benefits of HD as it continues to improve, are already available on many 4K sets.

電視機生產商堅定支持超高清。和3D電視機不一樣的是，4K電視機不需要麻煩地戴上特殊的眼鏡。仔細挑選4K電視機的人，將是在購買一臺幾年之內都不會過時的電視機。高清電視在繼續改進，而要享受其全部好處，兩種關鍵技術成分必不可少，而很多4K電視機已經具備了這兩種技術：一個是HDMI 2.0接口，用於轉換支持4K分辨率的音視頻數據；還有一個是視頻壓縮格式HEVC。

Content Is Coming

內容會越來越豐富

Content in 4K still is limited, but in time, more will become available. Consumers who are concerned about a lack of native 4K content now can take comfort in the knowledge that TV manufacturers have put a lot of work into upscaling technology to ensure that today's HD content looks even better on 4K sets right now. And a new generation of Blu-ray players and discs that will be able to play back native 4K content in all its glory is in the pipeline, perhaps 18 months away.

4K內容仍然有限，但假以時日，越來越多的內容都將可以獲得。目前擔心缺少原生4K內容的消費者可以放心，因爲電視機生產商花了很大力氣提升技術，來確保今天的高清內容在現在的4K電視機上效果都要更好。能夠播放正宗原生4K內容的新一代藍光播放機和光碟即將到來，可能還有一年半的時間。

Much of the first 4K content will become available via the Internet. A broadband speed of 15 megabits per second is enough to ensure a good experience of 4K, and many households already have this. Viewers who want to be among the first to watch must-see shows such as 'House of Cards' in 4K will find 4K sets an attractive proposition. Those who choose to rely on Wi-Fi rather than their wired device for 4K streaming will note that many products are now emerging that feature enhanced Wi-Fi to handle 4K streaming.

第一批4K內容當中的很大一部分將是通過互聯網發佈。每秒15兆的帶寬足以確保良好的4K體驗，很多家庭已經具備。希望第一批觀看4K格式《紙牌屋》(House of Cards)等必看劇的觀衆將會發現4K電視機是一個不錯的方案。選擇依靠WiFi而不是有線設備在線播放4K內容的人們將會注意到，現在很多新產品都帶有增強WiFi功能來處理4K內容的在線播放。

Big sporting events often trigger households into upgrading their sets. With the World Cup starting in Brazil next month, the coming weeks will see many consumers upgrading their sets to enjoy the event in the highest quality possible.

重大體育賽事常常誘使家庭升級電視機。世界盃將於6月份在巴西開賽，接下來幾個星期將會有很多消費者升級電視機，用最好的畫質來欣賞賽事。

Those who are in the market now for a new large-screen set should seriously consider 4K models. As with most new electronics products, prices will fall further. But the 4K sets are already good value for money. If you buy a 1080p set now, which you will likely keep until the next decade, the picture will look increasingly low-res as time passes.

目前正在市場上尋找新款大屏幕電視機的消費者應當認真考慮4K型號。和大多數新款電子產品一樣，價格將會進一步下跌。但4K電視機已經物有所值。如果現在買一臺1080p的電視機，可能你會一直用到2020年，隨着時間的推移，其分辨率將會顯得越來越低。

If you can afford 4K now -- why wait?

如果現在就買得起4K，幹嗎要等呢？

Mr. Wetherill is senior market analyst at Futuresource Consulting Ltd., Dunstable, England.

Jack Wetherill 是英國鄧斯特布爾諮詢公司Futuresource Consulting Ltd.的高級市場分析師。

No: Little Content And High Prices Make It a Bad Deal

不買：內容少，價格高，不划算

Strolling down to your nearby electronics store, you see a promotion for something called 4K TV. The clarity and detail of the picture is striking, even with your nose pressed right up against the glass of the TV screen.

溜達到附近的電子產品店，看到廣告上推銷一種名叫“4K電視機”的東西。清晰度和畫面細節讓人震撼，哪怕你把鼻子緊貼到電視機屏幕的玻璃上去。

Then, looking at the price tag, you are struck by clarity of a different sort.

然後看價籤，你就會因爲另外一種清晰度而感到震撼。

Many consumers are encountering the 4K phenomena. But to enjoy the true benefits of 4K, three things need to be present: the television, the content, and a way to get the content to the TV. It's a bit like the proverbial three-legged stool. If one of the legs is a bit short of the others, the experience is, at best, uneven. Missing a leg? Then the system doesn't work at all.

很多消費者都遇到了這種4K現象。但要享受4K帶來的真正好處，三個條件必須具備：電視機，內容，把內容引導至電視機上的途徑。有如俗諺所說的三腳凳，如果一條腿比另兩條短，那麼整個體驗最多也只稱得上不均衡。要是少了一條腿，整個系統根本就無法工作。

TV makers rolled out 4K sets in early 2012, demonstrating 84-inch behemoths with stunning picture quality priced in the $20,000 range. By the end of 2013, prices had fallen dramatically, with 55-inch 4K TVs priced as low as $3,500. And by last month, prices had fallen further to $2,500.

電視機生產商在2012年年初推出4K電視機，展出了84英寸的龐然大物，畫質驚豔，價格在2萬美元左右。到2013年底，價格已經大幅下降，55英寸4K電視機最低的只有3,500美元。到今年4月份，更是進一步下探到2,500美元。

But do you really want the least expensive television in 4K, one with limited features and a brand you may have never heard of?

但你真的想買價格最便宜、功能有限、牌子從來沒有聽說過的4K電視機嗎？

One Buying Strategy

購買策略

The difference in price between 4K and HDTV is greatest among the larger screen sizes. Consumers can purchase a 70' screen from well-known HDTV makers for around $1,700, compared with more than $4,000 for a similarly sized 4K TV. Effectively, a consumer could buy the 70' HDTV today, buy a 4K set when prices are lower, and still come out ahead.

大屏幕電視機當中，4K與HD之間的價差最大。消費者可以按1,700美元左右的價格買一臺來自知名高清電視機生產商的70英寸電視機，相比之下同樣尺寸的4K電視機要花4,000多美元。消費者基本上可以在今天買一臺70英寸的高清電視機，在價格更低的時候買一臺4K電視機，同時仍然享有優勢。

Production of 4K content, meanwhile, is just getting under way. A few World Cup games will be in 4K, but regular broadcasts of live sports won't be available for some time. Sony offers more than 50 movies in 4K, and the movie studios are following suit. In Japan, 4K broadcasting could begin as early as this summer. The rest of the world, however, is still at least a year or two away from 4K TV channels.

與此同時，4K內容的生產纔剛剛開始。幾場世界盃比賽將用4K格式，但經常性的4K賽事直播在一段時間內還看不到。索尼(Sony) 有50多部電影是4K，各電影製作公司也在跟進。在日本，4K電視節目最早有可能在今年夏季開始播出。但世界其他地方至少還有一兩年纔會有4K電視頻道出現。

Therein lies the industry's greatest challenge: getting 4K content to the TV.

行業面臨的最大挑戰，是怎樣把4K內容傳到電視機上。

Season 2 of Netflix's 'House of Cards' is one of the first series available in 4K. But today, no U.S. pay-TV service or broadcaster offers 4K, either on demand or as a TV channel. Comcast Corp. and online movie service M-GO have both announced partnerships with Samsung to deliver 4K content sometime this year, but neither service is available yet to consumers.

Netflix《紙牌屋》第二季將是第一批4K電視連續劇之一。但在今天，沒有哪家付費電視服務公司或電視臺提供4K，不管是按需提供的4K還是4K電視頻道。康卡斯特(Comcast Corp.)和在線電影服務商M-GO都公佈了跟三星(Samsung)的合作方案，將在今年的某個時候發行4K內容，但兩家公司的服務都還無法爲消費者享受。

The holdup is due to the size of 4K files. To stream a 4K video, you will need a broadband service that can provide a speed of at least 15 megabits per second, all the time.

這種停頓狀態緣於4K文件的大小。要在線播放一部4K視頻，寬帶服務商必須能夠持續提供至少每秒15兆的網速。

Even if you subscribe to a 15 to 20 Mbps service, inconsistencies in the Internet speed from your provider as well as use of the Internet by other devices in the home may reduce your 4K viewing to a long series of pauses as your connection coughs out a few minutes of video at a time. Homes may need service of 50 Mbps or better to have an adequate 4K streaming experience.

即便是訂購了15Mbps到20Mbps的服務，服務商網速的不連貫以及家中其他設備對網絡的使用都有可能導致每隔幾分鐘就斷網一次，從而使你的4K觀看體驗淪爲一連串的停頓。家庭網速可能需要達到50Mbps甚至以上，才能獲得差強人意的4K在線播放體驗。

Disc Slip

碟子也不行

Physical media is also not the answer. Blu-ray discs cannot handle 4K content. The player can support playout of 2160p images and video, but the discs themselves don't have the capacity to hold most 4K movies and the extras that are often included in Blu-ray. For now, studios are putting 2K versions of movies on Blu-ray discs and promoting them as mastered or filmed in 4K. Once discs are developed that can handle 4K, they may require entirely new players.

實體媒介也不是答案。藍光光碟應付不了4K內容。播放機可以支持2160p圖像和視頻的播放，但碟子本身的容量放不下大多數4K電影以及常常被包含在藍光光碟裏面的花絮。目前影視製作公司正在把2K版本的電影放進藍光光碟裏面，在推銷的時候說母版是4K或拍攝的時候是4K。等能夠處理4K內容的光碟開發出來，可能就需要用全新的播放機才能播放了。

Finally, it's true that when watching HD content on a 4K set there can be a marginally better picture. But why pay two to three times as much to get a slightly better picture quality when actual 4K content won't be available for some time?

最後，在4K電視機上看高清內容的畫質可能要略好一些，這不假。但是，在還有一段時間才能看到正宗4K內容的時候，爲什麼要花兩三倍的錢去獲得一種稍微好一點的畫質呢？

Only the hardiest gadget lovers should think of buying 4K now while they still cannot get the full benefit of it. Everyone else can wait.

在眼下無法享受4K全部好處的時候，只有最狂熱的科技產品愛好者才應該考慮買一臺4K電視機，其他所有人都可以等等。