投資行下重注 下一個阿里巴巴將來自印度

Temasek Holdings, the Singaporean sovereign wealth fund with a $180 billion investment portfolio, is betting big on the future of India’s e-commerce. It recently invested in the Indian e-tailerSnapdeal with the expectation that the volume of transactions in that country’s burgeoning e-commerce market will increase by a factor of at least six over the next three to four years.

擁有1,800億美元投資組合的新加坡主權基金淡馬錫控股公司（Temasek Holdings）在印度的電子商務上押下了重注。最近，淡馬錫對印度的電商Snapdeal進行了投資，希望該國蓬勃發展的電子商務市場的交易量能在接下來的三四年內至少增長到現在的六倍。

That’s no small vote of confidence in India’s e-commerce potential. Temasek was an early investor in China’s Alibaba, an e-commerce titan whose annual transactions today exceed $250 billion, or more than Amazon and eBay combined. It likes Snapdeal because the company uses a similar model.

這可是對印度電子商務市場潛力的巨大信心。淡馬錫也是中國阿里巴巴（Alibaba）的早期投資者。後者作爲電子商務巨擘，年成交額已經超過2,500億美元，比亞馬遜（Amazon）和eBay加起來還要多。淡馬錫相中Snapdeal，也是因爲這家公司使用了與阿里巴巴類似的模式。

“India has huge opportunity,” says Praveen Sengar, an analyst at Gartner who is based in Singapore. “But logistics is the biggest challenge for the Indian market and significant investment will go into developing a network covering tier 1 and 2 cities.”

高德納研究公司（Gartner）駐新加坡的分析師普拉文•森加表示：“印度有着巨大的機遇。但印度的物流是該國市場面臨的最大挑戰。要進行大量投資，才能建立覆蓋一線城市和二線城市的交通網絡。”

India’s e-commerce market was around $13 billion in 2013, according to a joint report by KPMG and the Internet and Mobile Association of India, or IAMAI. That’s a relatively small number compared to China’s $300 billion, but it’s still a substantial figure with plenty of room for growth.

根據畢馬威會計事務所（KPMG）和印度互聯網及移動通信協會（Internet and Mobile Association of India，IAMAI）的聯合報告，印度電子商務市場在2013年的規模約爲1,300億美元。與中國電子商務市場的3,000億美元相比，該數值相對較低，不過考慮到印度仍然有很多的增長潛力，這也是個很可觀的數字了。

In India’s favor is the fact that the country’s digital payments industry is expected to expand at a rate of 40 percent to reach $20 billion by the end of this year, according to IAMAI, and it has one of the youngest online populations, with 15 to 24-year-olds making up the fastest growing segment.

根據印度互聯網及移動通信協會的說法，印度的利好在於該國的電子支付行業預計將增長40%，在今年年底達到2,000億美元的規模。另外，印度還有最年輕的網民羣體，15歲至24歲之間的網民比例增長最快。

“Smartphone penetration across the country and the increasingly mobile-first culture will offset the relative lack of reliable Internet connectivity,” says Shiv Putcha, an IDC analyst focused on consumer mobility and gaming and based in Mumbai.

國際數據公司（IDC）駐印度孟買的分析師希夫•普恰長期關注移動消費和遊戲領域，他表示：“智能手機正在滲透這個國家，‘移動爲先’的文化逐漸盛行，將會彌補該國相對匱乏的穩定上網條件。”

At present India is transitioning from what is called an inventory-based model of e-commerce, where e-tailers sell a single product or brand stocked in their warehouse, to a marketplace model where a platform brings buyers and sellers together. The marketplace model is considered to be less capital intensive, generating more (and earlier) profits for shareholders.

目前，印度的電子商務正在從以存貨爲基礎的模式（電商只售賣儲存在他們庫房中的產品），轉變爲市場模式（利用平臺將賣家和買家聯繫起來）。市場模式的資本密集度較低，能夠更多地（也更早地）讓股東盈利。

In India, the leaders of the marketplace approach are Flipkart, Snapdeal, Myntra, and the recently arrived Amazon.

在印度，Flipkart、Snapdeal、Myntra以及新加入的亞馬遜，目前在電子商務市場處於領先位置。

“Flipkart definitely stands out with broader market coverage, presence in multiple categories, repeat buyers and consistent orders,” Sengar says.

森加表示：“Flipkart非常引人注目，它的市場覆蓋範圍更廣，在很多產品上具有很大影響力，回頭客很多，訂單源源不絕。”

Bangalore-based Flipkart, which was founded by two former Amazon executives, started by selling books, but has since branched out into 14 categories including lifestyle, healthcare, and accessories. Earlier this year it acquired Myntra, a fashion portal also based in Bangalore, with hopes that the move will help it dominate apparel e-tailing in India.

Flipkart位於印度南部的班加羅爾，由兩位前亞馬遜高管創立，以賣書起家，並隨後拓展到包括生活、醫療和配飾等的14個領域。今年早些時候，它收購了同樣位於班加羅爾的時裝電商Myntra，後者希望此舉能夠幫助其統治印度的網絡服裝零售領域。

Its rivals have been similarly busy. Snapdeal is the second-largest domestic player and has raised more than $200 million in expansion capital from equity partners that include sovereign wealth fund Temasek and eBay. It expects to achieve $1 billion in annual sales by 2015.

而Flipkart的競爭對手也同樣繁忙。Snapdeal是印度第二大電商，它從淡馬錫和eBay等權益合夥人那裏募集了超過2億美元的擴張資金。公司預計到2015年將實現10億美元的年銷售額。

Jabong, which is based in Gurgaon outside New Delhi, recently raised $100 million from a consortium of investors including the German tech incubator Rocket Internet.

位於新德里衛星城古爾岡的Jabong最近也募集了1億美元，投資的財團裏包括德國的科技創業孵化公司Rocket Internet。

Foreign venture capital is being used by India’s e-commerce players to establish order processing centers and distribution channels that move beyond larger cities into rural communities. “Amazon took its time to study the market and really hit the ground running,” Putcha says. “It will be No. 1 in India in the next two years.”

印度的電子商務公司藉助國外風投資本，建立了訂單處理中心和銷售渠道，並將它們從大城市拓展到農村地區。普恰表示：“亞馬遜花了很多時間來研究市場，確實是在腳踏實地地運營。在接下來的兩年中，它將成爲印度電商領域的老大。”

The American e-commerce giant was not able to make a similar impact in China because regulatory requirements made the entry of international competitors much more difficult, leaving Alibaba a relatively unobstructed run at domestic growth.

這家美國電子商務巨頭沒能在中國產生類似的影響力，因爲中國的監管要求使得國外競爭者要進入中國市場十分困難，這讓阿里巴巴在中國國內的發展相對暢通無阻。

Still, for all the competition and recent growth, the size of India’s e-commerce market will not rival that of China anytime soon. “China will outpace India’s e-commerce market for many years to come,” says Chris Christopher, an analyst at IHS. “Per-capita income levels are significantly higher in China than in India, Chinese access to consumer credit is more developed, and computer literacy is generally higher in China.”

當然，儘管印度的電子商務市場有着良好的競爭環境，近來增速喜人，但在短期內仍然無法同中國相比。信息公司IHS的分析師克里斯•克里斯托弗表示：“在接下來許多年裏，中國的電子商務市場都要領先於印度。中國的人均國民收入遠超印度，中國的消費信貸更加發達，國民使用計算機的能力也強於印度。”

For all the investment and aggressive expansion, there’s one a big hurdle that India’s e-tailers have yet to leap: turning a profit. Transitioning to an Alibaba- or eBay-style marketplace model may help. “The logistics cost is still high, in the range of 15 percent of total cost, with higher returns especially for cash on delivery goods,” Sengar says.

儘管印度的電商在努力吸引投資，謀劃擴張，但他們還需要跨越一個巨大的障礙：盈利。向阿里巴巴或是eBay的市場模式過渡也許能起到效果。森加表示：“印度的物流成本仍然很高，佔到了總成本的15%。而貨到付款的退貨率也更高。”

So will additional patience from foreign equity partners. “I don’t expect the players to be profitable in next three to five years,” he added.

而國外的權益合夥人也需要更多一些耐心。森加補充道：“我不會指望印度的電商在接下來的三五年內就能盈利。”