如何在機器人時代不糾結

An IBM executive told a recent conference that when supercomputer Deep Blue was halfway through its 1997 chess match with Garry Kasparov, it made a random move, due to a software bug. Assuming the machine was smarter than it was, Kasparov later made a strategic error that helped hand Deep Blue victory in the match.

IBM的一位高管在最近的一次會議上表示，1997年超級計算機“深藍”(Deep Blue)與加里•卡斯帕羅夫(Garry Kasparov)進行國際象棋比賽，在對弈到一半時，“深藍”由於軟件故障走了一步閒棋。卡斯帕羅夫認爲“深藍”後來變聰明瞭，他本人犯了一個戰略性錯誤，從而幫助深藍獲得了比賽的勝利。

Thomas Davenport and Julia Kirby warn that humans could, like Kasparov, cede the future to machines too easily.

托馬斯•達文波特(Thomas Davenport)和茱莉亞•柯比(Julia Kirby)警告稱，與卡斯帕羅夫一樣，人類可能輕易將未來拱手讓給機器。

“Many knowledge workers are fearful,” they write. “We should be concerned, given the potential for these unprecedented tools to make us redundant. But we should not feel helpless in the midst of the large-scale change unfolding around us.”

他們寫道：“許多知識型員工非常擔心。鑑於這些史無前例的工具有可能導致我們失去工作，我們應該擔心。但面對我們身邊正在出現的大規模變化，我們也不用感到茫然無助。”

Only Humans Need Apply falls into the sub-genre of techno-optimism, at the opposite end of the bookshelf from, say, Martin Ford’s doomier Rise of the Robots .

《只有人類需要求職》(Only Humans Need Apply)可以歸入“技術樂觀派”的類別，書架的另一端則有馬丁•福特(Martin Ford)較爲悲觀的著作——《機器人時代》(Rise of the Robots)。

Not all of every job can be automated, the authors point out. Change may be a long time coming (they cite futurist Paul Saffo’s wise insight: “Never mistake a clear view for a short distance”). Critically, humans have the power to shape their destiny. They can develop, program and direct machines, and adapt to working with them, in a process of “augmentation” rather than mere automation. Machines, up to now “the brawn to our brains, can become the brains to our brio”.

《只有人類需要求職》的兩位作者指出，並非每一種工作都可以自動化。變化可能在一個漫長的時期內發生——他們援引未來學家保羅•薩福(Paul Saffo)的至理名言：Never mistake a clear view for a short distance（望山跑死馬）。關鍵是，人類有能力塑造自己的命運。在“擴增”(augmentation)而非簡單自動化的過程中，人們可以開發機器、給機器編程以及向機器下指令，調整自身以適應與機器合作。機器至今“對我們的大腦來說就猶如肌肉，它們可以成爲大腦，使我們獲得精神上的愉悅”。

Having deftly outlined the gloomier forecasts, Kirby and Davenport lay out how to avoid submission to, or substitution by, machines. A few senior managers will step up into overseeing automated systems. Other workers will step aside, by developing careers in areas machines are not as good at, such as motivation, creativity or empathy.

柯比和達文波特列舉了一些較爲悲觀的預測，闡述如何避免被機器壓迫或者取代。少數高級經理將“向上邁步”，從事監控自動化系統的崗位。其他勞動者將會“向旁邊邁步”，在激勵、創造或移情等機器不擅長的領域發展職業。

Still others will step in (by learning more about how computers work and how to improve them), step narrowly (becoming super-specialists), or step forward to develop new systems and technology.

還有些人將會“邁進”這一行（通過進一步學習計算機工作原理並研究如何改進它們）、專攻某個狹窄領域（成爲超級專家），或者“向前邁步”開發新的系統和技術。

Plenty of people have already made these changes, and they describe many of them. Here is the redundant lawyer who “stepped in” to become an expert overseer of automated contract reviews; or the editor who “stepped up” to develop a computerised system for preparing and publishing sports statistics and earnings reports. If you pair adaptable humans with computers, you can remove tedious tasks and manage the change humanely.

許多人已經做出了這些改變，並描述了其中的諸多變化。這裏有丟了工作的律師“邁進”這一行，成爲一名自動化合同審查的專業監督者；也有編輯“向上邁步”，開發了一套計算機化系統，用於準備和發佈運動統計數據和盈利報告。如果將適應能力強的人與計算機搭配，就可以消除單調乏味的工作，人性化地應對這種變化。

Developers must “look for ways to help humans perform their most human and most valuable work better”, the authors say. Simply asserting this bright future will not make it occur, however. The temptation for bosses to opt for the most efficient robot solution is strong. Davenport and Kirby “expect corporations’ efforts to keep human workers employable will become part of their ‘social licence to operate’”. But is that wishful thinking and, even if not, will it happen soon enough?

兩位作者表示，開發者必須“設法幫助人類更好地進行最具有人性特點、最有價值的工作”。然而，只是簡單斷言這種光明未來不會讓它變成現實。促使老闆們選擇最有效的機器人解決方案的誘因會非常強烈。達文波特和柯比“希望企業讓人類工人可就業的努力將成爲他們‘社會運營執照’的一部分”。但這是一廂情願的想法，或者即便不是一廂情願，它能及時實現嗎？

This is a fine call to action in the face of uncertainty. But let us program the automated story-writing tool for a sequel in 2026. Only then will we know whether humans who stepped up, in or forward, sustained a fulfilling working existence, or were merely treading water ahead of a tsunami.

面對不確定的前景，這是一個很好的行動號召。但是讓我們爲2026年的續集設計自動化的故事創作工具吧。只有到那時我們纔會知道，那些向上、向內或者向前邁步的人們是維持了充實的工作存在，還是隻是在海嘯來臨前蹚水。