美元超低利率時代終結 誰錯過了融貸好時機

Years of ultralow interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve may have breathed life back into the economy and buoyed Wall Street. But they have not managed to solve problems like the aging Portal Bridge.

美聯儲(Federal Reserve)數年來把利率維持在超低水平。這可能確實幫助美國經濟恢復了生機，也對華爾街起到了提振作用，但卻並沒有解決像波特爾大橋(Portal Bridge)老化這樣的問題。

The 105-year-old railway bridge in northern New Jersey has for decades caused delays for commuters in and out of New York. “We have long desired the bridge’s replacement,” said Stephen Gardner, an executive vice president for Amtrak, whose trains use the bridge. “It’s time for it to retire.”

這座105年曆史的鐵路橋位於新澤西州北部，數十年來，它給出入紐約的通勤者造成了不少延誤。“我們早就期待有一座新橋，現在是時候讓它退休了，”美鐵(Amtrak)執行副總裁斯蒂芬·加德納(Stephen Gardner)說。該公司的列車需要經過這座橋。

A replacement bridge would cost an estimated $1 billion, the sort of sum that financial markets can raise for a private corporation in the blink of an eye. Yet even though the federal government and the state of New Jersey can borrow at rock-bottom rates, the overhaul remains unfunded.

修建新橋的費用估計在10億美元左右，而這個數目金融市場可以在轉眼之間爲私人企業籌集到。然而，儘管聯邦政府和新澤西州可以用最低利率借款，這筆費用依然沒有着落。

There are many such infrastructure projects needed around the country, providing a stark reminder of the deeper problems in the economy that the Fed’s easy-money policies have not been able to fix.

全美各地有很多這樣亟需的基礎設施，對我們是個很好的提醒：美國經濟存在一些更深層次的問題，而美聯儲的寬鬆貨幣政策並沒能解決它們。

“We are not where we should be when it comes to investment, public or private,” said William A. Galston, a former adviser to President Bill Clinton and now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

“在投資方面，無論是公共還是私人投資，我們都和應有的狀況存在差距，”威廉姆·A·高爾斯頓(William A. Galston)說。他曾是比爾·克林頓總統(Bill Clinton)的顧問，目前在布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)擔任高級研究員。

Mr. Galston in particular lamented the failure to set up a government-backed infrastructure bank in recent years. “This will go down as one of the great missed opportunities,” he said.

高爾斯頓特別惋惜的是，最近幾年未能組建一個由政府支持的基礎設施投資銀行。“這是錯失良機，”他說。

Public investment spending as a share of overall economic activity has fallen to lows not seen since the 1940s, according to an analysis by James W. Paulsen of Wells Capital Management.

據富國銀行資本管理公司(Wells Capital Management)的詹姆斯·W·保爾森(James W. Paulsen)分析，公共投資支出在整體經濟活動中所佔的份額已下降到40年代以來的最低點。

Political impasses have, of course, restricted the flow of money into government projects aimed at improving aging roads, bridges and mass transit. But even in the private sector, many of the hoped-for benefits of low-cost borrowing have not occurred.

當然，政治僵局也是攔路石，讓資金無法流入旨在改善老化的道路、橋樑和公共交通設施的政府項目。但即使是在私營部門，低成本借貸本來應該帶來的很多好處也沒能實現。

Corporations have tapped the markets for trillions of dollars in recent years, yet they plowed relatively little of the money into new operations. Such investments might have bolstered hiring and made American business more efficient and globally competitive.

近年來，企業通過各種市場籌集了數以萬億計的美元，但它們投入到新業務上的資金卻相對少得可憐。這些投資本來有可能促進就業，提升美國公司的效率和全球競爭力。

In some ways, these are the wasted opportunities of the cheap-money years — and they may well remain squandered now that the cost of borrowing appears to be heading higher, even if the initial increases after the Fed’s decision Wednesday to move its benchmark up from close to zero will remain modest.

從某些方面來看，這些都是低成本借貸時期被浪費掉的機會——而且，美聯儲本週三的加息決議把接近於零的基準利率小幅升高，雖然貸款成本起初的升幅會較小，但這樣的機會很可能還是會被繼續浪費。

The Fed’s stimulus policies worked in many ways. They prompted banks and investors to lend, lifted stock prices and bolstered the confidence of consumers and chief executives. The economy eventually regained strength, causing unemployment to fall, auto sales to take off and house prices to rise somewhat.

美聯儲的刺激政策在很多方面都發揮了效果。它們推動了銀行和投資者放貸、提升了股價，也提振了消費者和首席執行官們的信心。美國經濟最終恢復了元氣，讓失業率下降了，汽車銷量增加了，房價也有所回暖。

But important indicators suggest that the money did not flow where some economists and analysts say it is needed to improve the long-term potential of the economy.

但是一些重要指標顯示，這些資金並沒有流向一些需要的地方。經濟學者和分析師指出，要改善美國經濟的長期發展潛力，這些地方需有資金投入。

Corporations may not have made the most of the Fed’s largess. In theory, low interest rates should spur companies to borrow money that they then invest in new machines and technology that will make their operations more efficient. These investments can improve profitability and make firms more competitive in global markets.

企業可能並沒有好好利用美聯儲慷慨提供的超低利率。從理論上說，低利率可以刺激企業借入資金，把它們投入到新設備和技術上，從而提高運營效率。這樣的投資能夠改善盈利能力，增加公司在全球市場上的競爭力。

But business investment as a percentage of gross domestic product has remained below historical levels since the Great Recession. A surprising lack of investment also shows up in the recent borrowing habits of companies that issue junk bonds, a market that ballooned after the Fed cut interest rates.

然而自本輪大衰退以來，企業投資在國內生產總值中的比例一直處於歷史低位。美聯儲降息之後，垃圾債券市場的規模出現了大幅擴張。發行垃圾債券的公司近來在借款上養成的一些習慣，顯示出投資出人意料的匱乏程度。

From 2009 through September of this year, United States companies issuing such bonds spent a mere 2 percent of the proceeds of those bonds on capital expenditures, or “capex,” according to an analysis of data provided by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The capital expenditures figures may not capture all investment, the bank’s analysts noted. Even so, the data shows that the lion’s share of bond proceeds went to pay off other debt owed by the companies and to finance acquisitions and leveraged buyouts.

用美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的數據進行的分析顯示，從2009年到今年9月，美國公司發行這種債券所籌集的資金中，僅有2%的收益用在了資本性支出上。雖然該行的分析師指出，資本性支出的數字可能無法囊括所有的投資，但從這些數據來看，通過發行債券籌集的資金中，最大的份額被用在了償還公司所欠的其他債務，以及開展普通收購和槓桿收購行動上。

“Very little of it has been used for capex,” said Michael Contopoulos, head of United States high-yield and leveraged loan strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “We think that’s a big problem.”

“很少被用作資本性支出，”美銀美林負責高收益及槓桿融資策略的主管邁克爾·孔託普洛斯(Michael Contopoulos)說。“我們覺得這是個大問題。”

The lack of corporate investment may hold back the United States’ growth rate in the future. Higher capital expenditures might have bolstered productivity, a crucial economic yardstick that measures how much an economy produces with resources like labor and capital. Growth in productivity has slowed in recent years, disturbing economists.

企業投資缺乏，可能會抑制美國未來的經濟增長速度。更高的資本性支出本可提高生產率。這是一個至關重要的經濟指標，可以衡量出一個經濟體用勞動力和資金等資源可以產出多少東西。但最近幾年，美國生產率增長速度放緩，這讓經濟學者頗爲不安。

Paradoxically, it is possible that the low interest rates have held back forces that would have made companies more efficient. In an influential speech in 2014, Lawrence H. Summers, a former Treasury Secretary and now a professor at Harvard, cited the experience of Japan, where interest rates have been low for a long time.

矛盾的是，低利率有可能抑制了能讓企業變得更加高效的力量。在2014年發表的一次重要演講中，前財政部長、現任哈佛大學教授的勞倫斯·H·薩默斯(Lawrence H. Summers)列舉了日本的情況，後者的利率在很長一段時間內處在低水平。

“In a period of zero interest rates or very low interest rates, it is very easy to roll over loans,” he said. ”And therefore there is very little pressure to restructure inefficient or even zombie enterprises.”

“在利率爲零或很低的時期，借貸展期非常容易，”他說。“所以沒有什麼壓力來對效率低下乃至變爲殭屍的企業進行重組。”

The Fed’s higher interest rates may now usher in a period of upheaval in corporate America. Recent turmoil in the junk bond market suggests that investors expect bankruptcies, particularly in the energy sector. And the pain today may create the sort of longer-term changes that would make the economy stronger. Conversely, if banks and bond investors cut back too much on lending, the economy could suffer.

美聯儲現在提高利率，有可能會促使美國企業界進入一個劇變的階段。垃圾債券市場最近出現的動盪顯示，投資者認爲將出現破產現象，尤其是在能源行業。今天的短痛可能會帶來某種長期的改變，而這種改變將使美國經濟變得更加強健。相反地，如果銀行和債券投資者在借貸上削減太多，美國經濟則有可能因此受挫。

But even as interest rates appear to be heading higher, some economists say there is an optimistic, alternative possibility.

不過，儘管利率似乎正在升高，一些經濟學者仍然表示，還有另一種比較樂觀的可能性。

Under this theory, productivity was weak in the years after the crisis because high unemployment kept labor costs depressed, giving companies an easy way to maintain margins. “Employers can be pretty sloppy in terms of efficiency,” said Jared Bernstein, a former member of President Obama’s economic team and now a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. “It’s not hard to squeeze the heck out of labor costs.”

按照這一理論，生產率之所以在經濟危機後的數年裏持續低下，是因爲高失業率打壓了勞動力成本，從而讓企業更容易維持利潤。“僱主在提高效率方面可能就會相當懈怠，”奧巴馬總統經濟顧問團隊的前成員、目前在預算與政策重點中心(Center on Budget and Policy Priorities)任高級研究員的傑瑞德·伯恩斯坦(Jared Bernstein)說。“因爲可以很容易從勞動力成本里擠出油水來。”

Now, as unemployment has fallen, companies may compete more for workers, potentially pushing up wages. Confronted with higher labor costs, companies will have no choice but to invest to become more efficient, the theory goes. “You want an economy and labor market where firms can’t afford to be inefficient,” Mr. Bernstein said.

按照上述邏輯，如今隨着失業率下降，企業可能要爲獲得人才而展開更多競爭，這就有可能會推高員工的薪水。面對升高的勞動力成本，企業將不得不進行投資，以提高效率。“你需要的是一個企業無法以低效率生存的經濟和勞動力市場，”伯恩斯坦說。

Question marks, however, will most likely continue to hang over the country’s roads and railways as interest rates rise.

然而，隨着利率上升，美國公路和鐵路能否獲得建設資金大概依然會存在不確定性。

If the economy continues to grow and fiscal pressures ease, the federal government, state and cities may find more to spend on infrastructure even if they face higher borrowing costs.

如果經濟持續增長，財政壓力得到緩解，聯邦、州和市政府可能會有更多資金進行基礎設施建設，哪怕面臨着更高的借貸成本。

But the substantial investment that some Democrats are hoping for seems improbable. Many Republicans assert that the infrastructure needs are overstated and that the private sector, rather than the taxpayer, needs to play a much greater role.

但一些民主黨人士期待的規模可觀的投資看起來並不會出現。很多共和黨人堅稱，基礎設施需求被過度誇大，而且應該由私營部門，而非納稅人在其中貢獻更多力量。

Congress overcame ideological differences this month to pass a roughly $300 billion transportation bill that provides funding for roads and bridges.

本月，國會克服了兩黨在意識形態上的差異，通過了一項金額約3000億美元的交通議案，將爲公路和橋樑建設提供資金。

The bill happens to contain measures that could make it easier to secure funding for replacing the Portal Bridge, as well as building new tunnels under the Hudson. The existing tunnels, damaged by Hurricane Sandy, were the cause of long delays in July that caused an outcry among commuters.

這項議案碰巧包含一些措施，可以使得爲建設新的波特爾大橋和哈德遜地下隧道進行的融資變得更加容易。被颶風“桑迪”(Sandy)損壞的幾條隧道，在今年7月曾導致長時間的延誤，引起一些通勤者的強烈抗議。

Any rebuilding will take longer and cost much more than earlier plans. But advocates for public works, while saying the transportation bill falls short of the overall needs, nonetheless see reason to be encouraged.

任何重建工程都會比原先計劃的時間長得多，費用也要多得多。但倡導進行市政工程的人士認爲，儘管這項交通議案還是不能滿足整體需求，但它值得鼓勵。

“I’m optimistic; there’s been big strides made,” Mr. Gardner, the Amtrak official, said. “Infrastructure is starting to creep back into people’s minds as an issue.”

“我比較樂觀，已經出現很大的進步，”美鐵公司的高管加德納說。“作爲一項議題，基礎設施開始被人們重新考慮了。”