經濟廣角:分析:中美輪胎戰

China boxes clever in trade dispute with US
Barack Obama’s decision last week to impose emergency tariffs on Chinese tyres has fuelled an increasingly familiar Sino- US war of words over trade.

Beijing launched an investigation yesterday into whether US poultry and car pArts were being unfairly dumped in the Chinese market. It also requested formal consultations at the World Trade Organisation into the US tariffs – the first step in trying to have them declared illegal.

Whether it will succeed is unclear. The particular “safeguard” measure that the US president invoked was, after all, written specifically to allow the US to block Chinese imports as part of the price for China joining the WTO in 2001.

However, trade experts and lawyers say the episode does show the increasingly sophisticated legal strategies used by Beijing in its many disputes with trading partners, and the way it maximises political effect while trying to limit the actual economic damage.

Opinion is divided as to whether this dispute – while breaking ground by using a particular trade law for the first time – is likely by itself to set off a protectionist spiral.

Gao Yongfu, an expert in trade law at Shanghai Institute of Foreign Trade, said: “I think it unlikely that this dispute will be limited to just one industry – it’s likely to spread to others.”

Prof Gao said other trading partners, including the European Union, were likely to follow suit, broadening if not deepening the restrictions on trade.

Yet other trade lawyers and economists noted that China had threatened to retaliate in a way that had high political salience but modest economic impact.

Beijing has built a reputation for rapid but controlled retaliation during trade disputes. One Washington trade lawyer said: “China always responds, so I don’t think this escalates. It just repeats each time the US does something.”

Arthur Kroeber of Drag- onomics, a Beijing-based economic consultancy, said: “Chinese tit-for-tat measures are unlikely to wreak significant economic damage . . . We don’t believe that the case marks the start of Depression-type trade wars.”

The products that Beijing is threatening to target – while denying that it is retaliating for the tyre tariffs – are politically importance in the US.

Poultry farmers are a vocal part of America’s influential farm lobby, and are particularly aggressive in seeking out export opportunities, because the US market is largely saturated. The manufacture of cars and car parts is often heavily unionised and located in important Midwest states.

China’s choice of instrument is also telling. Besides proposing “anti-dumping” measures on imports deemed to be priced unfairly low, Beijing is looking at “countervailing duties”, used against goods that receive government subsidies.

Since the US frequently accuses China of illegal state aid to its exporters, Beijing would score valu- able propaganda points by making a counter-accus- ation stick, particularly in light of the vast US motor industry bail-out.

The Washington trade lawyer said: “The interesting part is adding a countervailing duty case. China is [already] running one on US steel, but auto parts from the bail-out money and a US agricultural product are more politically sensitive.”

The economic impact could be small, however. Both sectors are already the subject of separate disputes and involve limited trade volumes. In response to a two-year-old US ban on processed chicken imports from China, Beijing has banned imports of US chicken from several states and, in recent weeks, reports have emerged of an unofficial block on new shipments of US poultry.

Meanwhile, US exports of auto parts to China have been relatively limited, in part because of high tariffs that Beijing is only now beginning to dismantle after losing a ruling at the WTO.

From a distance, China’s reaction may look like it is lashing out in anger. But in the eyes of some trade experts, it is preparing a surgical counter-strike.

巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)上週決定對中國輸美輪胎徵收緊急關稅，加劇了一場人們日漸熟悉的中美貿易論戰。

北京方面昨日啓動一項審查程序，以調查美國肉雞和汽車部件是否在中國市場進行不公平的傾銷。中國還請求在世界貿易組織(WTO)就美方的關稅進行正式磋商——這是中方努力使這些關稅被宣佈爲非法而邁出的第一步。

不清楚中方在這件事上能否取得成功。畢竟，美國總統援用的“特保”措施，是中國2001年爲加入WTO而付出的代價的一部分，其內容就是爲了讓美國能夠封堵中國輸美商品。

不過，貿易專家和律師們表示，這一事例確實展現出，中國在與貿易伙伴的衆多爭端中，正採用日趨老練的法律策略，而且在具體操作上一方面最大化政治效應，另一方面試圖限制實際經濟損害。

這一爭端標誌着美方首次動用一部特別的貿易法律。至於爭端本身是否可能引發螺旋式升級的保護主義措施，人們的看法不一。

上海對外貿易學院的貿易法專家高永富表示：“我認爲，這一爭端不太可能侷限在僅僅一個行業，它很可能蔓延到其它行業。”

高教授表示，中國的其它貿易伙伴，包括歐盟，很可能出臺類似舉措，拓寬（如果不是加深的話）對貿易的限制範圍。

但其他貿易律師和經濟學家指出，中國已威脅要採取報復的方式，具有高度的政治聲勢，但經濟影響不大。

北京在歷次貿易爭端中建立了報復快速而有節制的聲譽。華盛頓的一名貿易律師表示：“中國一貫會有所反應，所以我不認爲這件事會升級。每一次美國有所動作時，這種情況都會重複出現。”

北京經濟諮詢機構——龍洲經訊公司(Dragonomics)的葛藝豪(Arthur Kroeber)表示：“中方一報還一報的措施，不太可能造成重大經濟損害……我們不相信這一爭端標誌着將爆發大蕭條時代的那種貿易戰。”

北京威脅要採取行動的產品，對美國具有政治重要性。中國否認相關行動是爲了報復美方的輪胎關稅。

在美國有影響力的農場遊說勢力中，家禽飼養者是一股聲勢浩大的力量，他們在尋找出口機遇方面特別積極，因爲美國市場已基本飽和。汽車和汽車零部件製造業往往普遍成立了工會組織，這些產業分佈於重要的中西部各州。

中國選擇的手段也很說明問題。除了對定價被視爲低得不公平的進口商品提議採取“反傾銷”措施外，北京還在研究“反補貼稅”——針對獲得政府補貼的商品所動用的手段。

由於美國經常指責中國向出口商提供非法政府補貼，北京將通過作出有說服力的反指控（尤其是在美國汽車業獲得政府大規模紓困的情況下），在宣傳方面得到寶貴的分數。

前述華盛頓貿易律師表示：“有意思的部分在於添加了一個反補貼審查程序。中國（已經）在對美國鋼材進行這樣的調查，但得益於紓困資金的汽車零部件，加上美國的一種農產品，將更具政治敏感性。”

不過，經濟影響可能相對較小。這兩個行業都已經是其它爭端的對象，而且涉及的貿易量有限。美國已針對中國的加工雞肉產品實行了兩年的進口禁令，對此，北京已禁止從美國數個州進口雞肉產品。近幾周又有報道稱，美國新發貨的家禽產品遭到非官方封堵。

與此同時，美國向中國出口的汽車零部件相對有限，部分原因是中國實行的高額關稅——北京在WTO一項裁決中失利後，剛開始取消這些關稅。

從遠處看，中國的反應也許像是在憤怒抨擊。但在某些貿易專家眼裏，中國則是在準備發起一次外科手術式的反擊。