中國經濟增速到底下降了多少?

The news out of the Middle Kingdom overnight wasn't very reassuring: HSBC's August PMI for China hit a nine-month low, another sign that the economy in China is slowing down. This is on top of the last GDP reading, which came in at a weak-for-China 7.6%.

前夜從中國傳來的消息並不令人放心：匯豐(HSBC)8月份採購經理人指數(PMI)初值跌至九個月來新低。這是表明中國經濟正在放緩的另一個跡象。此前公佈的二季度國內生產總值(GDP)數據也不容樂觀，同比增速僅有7.6%。

But by how much is China slowing down? That's the real question, and there isn't a very good answer.

但中國經濟增速到底放慢了多少？這纔是我們真正應該關心的問題。對此並沒有一個非常理想的答案。

'Even with the decline, there is speculation that these figures may still understate economic slowing,' a new paper from the Dallas Fed notes, referencing the official GDP numbers, but making the point that China's data are notoriously unreliable. 'Economists have long doubted the credibility of Chinese output data.

達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行(Dallas Fed)新近在一份研究報告中提到中國政府公佈的GDP數據時指出，即使中國公佈的經濟增速已經出現了下降，但仍有人猜測說，已經公佈的經濟數據可能低估了中國經濟放緩的程度。報告同時指出中國公佈的經濟數據是出了名的不可靠，報告說，經濟學家長期以來一直懷疑中國經濟產出數據的可信度。

'The dubious character of the official figures is no secret in China,' the paper notes, referencing a particularly infamous wikileaks disclosure, in which a senior Chinese official, Vice Premier Li Keqiang, told a U.S. diplomat that 'official' GDP figures are 'for reference only.'

這份報告指出，官方公佈的經濟數據不可靠在中國早已是盡人皆知的祕密。報告還提到了維基解密(wikileaks)披露的一件事：中國國務院副總理李克強曾告訴美國外交官，中國官方公佈的GDP數據“僅供參考”。

The Fed paper, trying to get a better look inside China, compares electricity consumption - one of the indicators Li mentioned he himself looks at for an accurate take on the economy - to official industrial production numbers. He draws the conclusion that if the official numbers were right, electricity usage would have been far higher than it actually was.

爲了能更好地瞭解中國經濟的真實情況，美聯儲在這份報告裏將用電量和官方發佈的工業產出數據進行對照研究（李克強在上述談話中曾經提到過，爲準確瞭解中國經濟情況，他會關注用電量數據），報告得出的結論是，如果官方數據沒有問題，那麼中國用電量應該遠遠高於目前實際水平。

This is, of course, about the worst-kept secret there is. Everybody knows China's official numbers are fraught with questions. So while we know that China's economy is cooling off, we don't know exactly by how much.

報告所說當然已經是公開祕密。大家都知道中國的官方數據充滿了各種問題。所以雖然我們知道中國經濟在減速，但我們並不清楚其降幅到底有多大。

'The slowdown in China could be worse than the official data indicate,' the paper concludes.

這份報告得出的結論是，中國經濟的放緩程度可能比官方數據所揭示的還要糟糕。