印尼百貨 好股不便宜
Want a business with sales growing on average 30 per cent a year in a fast-growing economy and that targets precisely the rising middle class generating the growth? On that basis, Matahari Department Stores’ refloat in Jakarta should be an easy sell. But the heady asking price highlights something else: emerging markets look relatively cheap, but the best opportunities are not.
想在快速增長的經濟體找到一家年平均銷售增長30%、瞄準推動這一增長的不斷壯大的中產階級的企業？按此標準，馬泰哈利百貨(Matahari Department Stores)在雅加達交易所的配股發售應會大賣。然而其偏高的要價卻突顯了其它信號：新興市場看起來相對便宜，但最好的機會卻不便宜。Developed markets’ premiums over emerging markets, in terms of forward price-earnings ratios, are at their highest in at least five years at 14 and 11 times respectively, based on MSCI’s global indices. But Matahari is asking between 25 and 28 times 2013 estimates for the up-to-$1.4bn in shares it is offering. That compares with Macy’s and Marks and Spencer trading at 11 times and China’s Golden Eagle Retail at 18 times. In favour of the high multiple is the fact that Indonesia’s consumers are justifiably exciting investors. Real private consumption has been growing at more than 5 per cent and domestic demand is expected to grow by a very healthy about-6 per cent this year. CLSA expects the middle class – those with more than $3,000 a year in disposable income – to make up about 30 per cent of the population by 2016, double 2010 levels. Matahari has a dominant 30 per cent of the department store market. And next to peers such as Robinson Department Store of Thailand at 34 times 2013 earnings, or even countryman Ace Hardware at 30 times, Matahari is not asking the world. Especially since it will be more liquid, courtesy of a two-fifths free-float compared with its peers’ one-third offering.
根據摩根士丹利資本國際指數，發達市場相對於新興市場的溢價正處於至少5年來的頂峯，以預期市盈率計，分別爲14倍和11倍。但馬泰哈利對最高達14億美元的股票發售，要價高達25至28倍於其2013年的預測盈利。與此相比，梅西(Macy)和馬莎百貨(Marks and Spencer)的市盈率爲11倍，而中國的金鷹商貿集團(Golden Eagle Retail)的市盈率爲18倍。支持這麼高市盈率的事實是，印尼的消費者有理由讓投資者振奮。近年實際私人消費年均增長超過5%，預計今年的國內需求將以6%這一非常健康的速度增長。里昂證券(CLSA)預計, 到2016年，那些可支配收入超過3000美元一年的中產階級人數將佔總人口的30%，兩倍於2010年的水平。馬泰哈利在百貨市場中佔30%份額的主導地位。相比同級別的同行如泰國Robinson百貨（34倍於2013年預期盈利），或其同胞Ace Hardware（30倍市盈率），馬泰哈利並非漫天要價。尤其是它的流動性將會更大，得益於其五分之二的流通股，相比其同行的三分之一。But investors could have bought either Ace or Robinson at half their current p/e in 2008 – before prices took off. Matahari-style dominant players in fast-growing emerging markets do not often come along in sufficient investment size. And the sellers of this one know it.
但投資者本可以在2008年（價格飆升以前），以相當於目前市盈率一半水平的價格購買Ace或Robinson的股票。快速增長的新興市場中，類似馬泰哈利式的主導玩家，不會經常提供這麼大規模的投資機會。賣家深知這一點
