中國的空置寫字樓:位置決定一切
There is something sad about the traffic lights blinking over empty boulevards in brand new 'business districts' all over China places that have all the makings of a thriving commercial center except… well, actual businesses.
在中國各地新建的商業區，空蕩蕩的大街上閃爍的交通燈發出悲涼的光。這些商業區擁有一個繁榮的商業中心所需的一切，但就是沒有商家。The empty malls and office buildings, waiting for someone to move in, are visible reminders that local governments and their developer pals often build first and ask questions later.
空置的購物中心和寫字樓等待着人們前來進駐，這提醒着人們，地方政府和它們的開發商夥伴總是先蓋樓，然後才問問題。Optimists counter that Shanghai's Pudong New Area felt like a ghost town when it was built, pretty much from scratch, in the 1990s. Now it is China's Wall Street.
樂觀的人們反駁說，上世紀90年代，上海的浦東新區從零開始建起來之後感覺就像是一個鬼城。現在，它是中國的華爾街。
But Pudong has the advantage of sitting just across the river from downtown Shanghai. As every realtor knows, location is everything.
但是浦東擁有着與上海市中心一江之隔這一地理位置上的優勢。每一個房地產經紀人都知道，位置決定一切。'In Beijing and Shanghai there is going to be demand for all the prime office space that is being built,' said Chris Brooke, head of real estate services firm CBRE in China, in a recent interview.
房地產服務公司世邦魏理仕(CBRE)的中國區負責人蒲敬思(Chris Brooke)近日接受採訪時說，北京和上海將出現對正在建造的所有優質寫字樓的需求。'If you take markets like Tianjin or Shenyang or Chongqing, they've created these new commercial zones and the demand is not going to be deep enough to keep up with that level of supply in the short term. Tianjin has not just one central business district but three.'
蒲敬思說，但看看天津、瀋陽或重慶的市場，這些城市都建造了新的商業區，那裏的需求不足以在短期吸收供應的水平；天津不是隻有一箇中央商業區，而是有三個。Tianjin alone will see more than five million square meters of office space completed between now and 2016, according to CBRE figures released Thursday.
根據世邦魏理仕週四公佈的數據，從現在起到2016年，天津將建成500萬平方米的辦公空間。Yet even the second-tier cities should be all right in the long run, Mr. Brooke said. Western China is now seeing some of the country's most impressive gross domestic product growth, and its two big cities, Chongqing and Chengdu, are emerging as commercial hubs for a vast region. Meanwhile, the central government has invested a lot of political capital in developing Tianjin, which is just southeast of Beijing, as a secondary northern metropolis.
蒲敬思說，然而，長期來看即使是二線城市也應該無虞。中國西部錄得了全國最令人印象深刻的經濟增長，中國西部兩個最大的城市重慶和成都正在成爲一個廣袤區域的商業中心。與此同時，中央政府已經投資了許多政治資本開發天津，想把天津打造成中國北方的一個次級大都會。The real trouble could be elsewhere. Much smaller cities like Zhengzhou, Changsha and Nanchang have big plans to build out new commercial space. Rents might take a dive in those markets in the next couple of years, Mr. Brooke reckons, but they won't get much sympathy in Beijing.
真正的麻煩可能在別處。鄭州、長沙和南昌這樣小得多的城市擁有建造新的商業空間的大計劃。蒲敬思說，未來幾年，這些市場的租金可能大幅下跌，但是它們不會獲得中央政府的太多同情。Unlike the residential market, which the authorities treat as a social issue, the government will likely take the view that cavalier developers who built more than the market can needs will have to live with the consequences.
有關部門通常將住宅地產看做一個社會問題，但對於商業地產來說，政府將可能會認爲，那些滿不在乎的房地產商需要自己承擔建造市場不需要的地產的後果。But that might suit the bigger kids in the Chinese real estate playground. Consolidation is coming in the sector, Mr. Brooke thinks, with banks reluctant to lend to smaller, less experienced developers.
但是，這可能對中國房地產領域規模較大的參與者更有利。蒲敬思認爲，因爲銀行不願意向規模較小、缺乏經驗的開發商提供貸款，中國的房地產行業將出現併購的局面。Such also-rans can't compete with the likes of China Vanke and Gemdale, big boys who can tap banks and international capital markets as well.
這樣的小企業無法與中國萬科(China Vanke)或金地集團(Gemdale)這樣的大公司競爭，後者不僅能夠從銀行獲得貸款，還能利用國際資本市場。These firms are accumulating big portfolios of commercial property to lease out, as well as building apartments for sale, modeling themselves on companies like Sun Hung Kai Properties and CapitaLand, the giants of Hong Kong and Singapore.
這些公司正在積累用於租賃的大的商業地產組合，還在建造用於銷售的公寓樓，他們的目標是成爲香港的新鴻基地產(Sun Hung Kai Properties)和新加坡的嘉德置地(CapitaLand Ltd.)這樣的巨頭。If a few heavyweights like that emerged from the mainland, China's government would not be sorry at all.
如果內地出現了幾個這樣的重量級公司，中國政府高興還來不及呢。
