經典英語文摘：The Next World Factory

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Ask any cab driver in Beijing, and they can tell you without hesitation what ails their country: China just has too many people, they will say with a Sigh.

隨便問一位北京出租車司機，困擾中國的問題是什麼?他們都會毫不猶豫地嘆口氣答道:中國就是人太多了。

But economists disagree, and as the population reaches a turning point- the number of entrants to the workforce may peak this year the country is set for a difficult adjustment, with growing labour market pressures bearing on the workshop of the world.

但經濟學家們卻不同意這種觀點。而且，隨着中國人口總數達到拐點(新增勞動力數量可能於今年見頂)，這個世界工廠的勞動力市場將日益趨緊，中國勢必將面臨一個艱難的調整。

That is a transition that China's neighbour, India set

to overtake it as the world's most populous nation in 2025 hopes to capitalise on, as entrants to its labour market will rise annually for the next 14 years.

面對這一轉變，中國的鄰邦印度希望自己能夠從中獲益。印度將在2025年超過中國，成爲世界上人口最多的國家。今後的14年，印度的新增勞動力數量每年都將增長。

But many analysts are questioning whether India with its overstretched, underdeveloped infrastructure and its poorly educated youth really has the capacity to take up the slack.

但考慮到該國欠發達、超負荷運轉的基礎設施，以及受教育程度較低的年輕人，許多分析人士懷疑，印度是否真的有能力填補勞動力市場的缺口。

"In all likelihood, India will not be able to benefit from this reduction in the growth of China's labour force, simply because India is not ready to have a manufacturing sector as large as China's," says Laveesh Bhandari, founding director of Indicus Analytics the New Delhi -based economics research house. "Infrastructure is limited and too expensive, and the human capital base is not deep enough."

新德里經濟研究機構Indicus Analytics的創始董事拉維什·班達裏表示:"印度十有八九無法從中國勞動力增長減緩中受益，這不過是因爲，印度還沒有爲建立像中國那樣龐大的製造業做好準備。這裏的基礎設施有限且過於昂貴，人力資本基礎也不夠雄厚。"

China, where the total workforce is due to start falling by about 2016, is already showing symptoms of a tightening labour market, with the country rocked this summer by a spate of labour disputes and strikes, by staff demanding higher wages.

到2016年左右，中國的勞動力總數將開始下降。中國目前已顯現出勞動力市場日益趨緊的徵兆。今年夏季，要求加薪的工人們造成了一連串勞資糾紛和罷工事件，震撼了中國各地。

The unrest has fuelled debate about whether China has reached its "Lewis turning point", named after Nobel laureate Arthur Lewis, who theorised that a developing economy's wages will rise sharply once labour demand from industry has exhausted available surplus' labour from the agricultural sector.

這些動藹促使人們就中國是否已進入"劉易斯拐點"展開了爭論。這一概念是 以諾貝爾經濟學獎得主阿瑟·劉易斯名字命名的，他認爲，一旦某個發展中經濟體的工業部門的勞動力需求徹底消化掉來自農業部門的剩餘勞動力供應，該經濟體的工資水平就將大幅上升。

Some economists believe that China reached this tipping point in 2004. when manufacturers in the Pearl River Delta reported labour shortages although pressures eased temporarily during the global financial crisis when demand for Chinese exports fell.

一些經濟學家認爲，中國在2004年就已進入這個拐點，當時珠江三角洲的製造業企業出現了勞動力短缺現象一一儘管在全球金融危機期間，當外界對中國出口的需求下滑之時，短缺壓力暫時得到了緩解。

But this year, the manufacturing hubs of Guangzhou and Dongguan have both raised their minimum wages, and many companies are expanding leisure activities and improving food at their factory compounds in order to boost worker retention.

但今年，廣州和東莞這兩個製造業中心都上調了最低工資;許多企業則在工業園區內增加休閒活動、改善伙食，以降低工人流失率。

Companies such as Foxconn, the electronics maker, have also begun moving inland closer to the areas where their workers hail from hoping to make it easier to gain new recruits, and thereby forcing local factories to raise their wages to compete.

此外，電子產品製造商富士康等企業還着手向內陸地區遷移，靠近勞動力的來掘地，希望藉此能夠更容易招到人。這進而又迫使當地工廠提高工資水平，以應對競爭。

"The consensus is that China is probably approaching the Lewis turning point soon, based on recent developments in population growth and also the one-child policy," says Jiang Tingsong, senior economist at the Centre for International Economics in Australia.

澳大利亞國際經濟中心高級經濟學家蔣庭鬆表示:"人們一致認爲，中國可能很快就將進入劉易斯拐點。這一共識基於人口增長的新動向以及獨生子女政策。"

Rising wages in the coming years are expected to drive manufacturers away from low-value-added sectors, while rising consumption by better-paid Chinese workers will play a bigger role in propelling the domestic economy.

預計未來幾年裏，一方面不斷上漲的工資將迫使製造商退出低附加值行業;另一方面，中國工人在加薪後將擴大消費，在推動國內經濟方面發揮更大的作用。

Morgan Stanley has projected that Chinese labour's share of gross domestic product would rise from its current level of 15 per cent to at least 30 per cent by 2020, reversing the trend of the past decade, in which wage growth has trailed economic expansion.

摩根士丹利預計，到2020年，中國勞動力佔國內生產總值的比重，將從目前的 15%上升到至少30%.，扭轉過去十年裏工資增長落後於經濟增長的趨勢。

"If wages rise, then the household share of national income must rise. That would be a very beneficial process and that would aid the economic re-balancing," explains Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Dragonomics, an independent research and advisory firm.

"如果工資上漲，那麼國民收入中家庭所佔的比重肯定也會上升。這將是一個非常有益的過程，有助於經濟恢復平衡理葛藝豪解釋道。

Yet some economists fret that tightening labour supplies will lead to slower growth and higher inflation.

但一些經濟學家擔心，勞動力供應趨緊將導致經濟增長減速和通脹擡頭。

Mr Jiang estimates that a 5 per cent reduction in the size of China's unskilled labour force could result in a 2 per cent slowdown in GDP.

蔣庭鬆估計，中國非熟練勞動力數量若減少5%，可能會造成GDP增速減少兩個百分點。

In China's labour headaches, some Indians see opportunity. The UN estimates that India's population will rise by 26 per cent from 1.2bn in 2010 to 1.5bn in 2035, while its labour force will rise by 33 per cent to nearly 1 bn.

一些印度人從中國的勞動力困局中看到了機會。聯合國估計，到2035年，印度人口將較2010年增長26%，從12億人增至15億人;同期勞動力數量將增長33%，達到近10億人。

By then, Indians of working age 15 to 59 will account for about 65 per cent of the population, making India the world's largest labour market.

屆時，處在工作年齡段(15歲至59歲)的印度人將佔到該國總人口的 6517毛左右，令該國成爲全球最大的勞動力市場。

Goldman Sachs says that India's labour force will grow by 110m people over the next 10 years, the largest addition to the global labour force, which could potentially add 4 percentage points to GDP growth over the next decade.

高盛表示，未來十年印度的勞動力數量將增加1.1億人，成爲對全球勞動力數量增長貢獻最大的國家;未來十年印度的GDP增速可能由此增加四個百分點。

But what worries many Indian business executives, economists and policymakers is whether the country's economy can absorb the masses of aspiring workers, mainly from poor rural areas and with little or no training. While nearly 13m young Indians are entering the workforce every year, India's vocational training system has the capacity to train just 3.1 m a year. Many young people lack even rudimentary' skills.

但令許多印度商界高管、經濟學家和政策制定者擔心的是，印度經濟是否能夠消化如此衆多渴望成功的工人——這些工人主要來自貧窮的鄉下，很少或根本沒有受過培訓。印度每年有近1300萬年輕人加入勞動力大軍，但該國的職業培訓體系每年只能培訓310萬人。許多印度年輕人甚至缺乏最基本的技能。

"We do not have people who are actually functionally literate," says Mr Bhandari. "Most of our labour force is inappropriate for the mass manufacturing practices that China has excelled at."

班達裏表示"我們沒有多少真正受過足夠多教育的人。我們的勞動力大多不適合從事中國人擅長的大規模製造業工作。