与伊朗争端加剧 波斯湾国家联合军演

Gulf Arab states are beginning two days of joint military exercises, as fears of an armed conflict with Iran continue to grow.

波斯湾阿拉伯国家开始进行为期两天的联合军事演习，他们日益担心与伊朗发生武装冲突。

The drills, dubbed "Islands of Loyalty," come amid an escalating territorial dispute between the United Arab Emirates and Iran over three strategic islands in the Persian Gulf.

由于存在领土争端，那里的局势越来越紧张。这次代号为“捍卫岛屿”的军演开始之际，正值阿拉伯联合酋长国与伊朗在波斯湾三个具有战略意义岛屿的领土争端升级之时。

Earlier this month, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited one of the islands, Abu Musa, sparking a war of words between Abu Dhabi and Tehran.

本月早些时候，伊朗总统艾哈迈迪内贾德前往这三个岛屿之一的阿布穆萨岛，从而激起阿布扎比与德黑兰之间的争论。

The UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Anwar Mohammed Gargash, said his nation was “fed up” with the Iranians’ “occupation” of the land.

阿联酋外交事务国务部长卡尔卡什说，阿联酋对伊朗占领这个岛屿忍无可忍。

Iran’s FARS news agency on Saturday provided one of the starkest warnings yet the dispute could result in war, quoting an unnamed military official as saying, “serious damage to the United Arab Emirates would be the first outcome.”

伊朗法尔斯通讯社星期六发出一项最严厉的警告，说这一争端可能导致战争，并且引述一位没有透露姓名的官员的话说，阿联酋遭到严重损害将是这一争端带来的第一种后果。

Despite the strong rhetoric analyst David Roberts, the deputy director of the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies in Qatar, says both countries would prefer to avoid a serious confrontation.

尽管双方进行激烈的争吵，但是卡塔尔的皇家国防与安全研究联合服务学院副院长、分析人士大卫.罗伯茨说，这两个国家都愿意避免一场严重的对抗。

"It is certainly for show, but that is absolutely not to ignore the potential prospect that something could accidentally spark off here," Roberts. "If you put all of these forces in a small proximity in a slightly fevered atmosphere, anything could happen."

罗伯茨说：“这显然是做做样子而已。不过，那也绝对不能忽略某件事有可能激起事端。如果把这些部队都部署在一个充满火药味的很小的范围，任何事件都有可能发生。”

Research Director Theodore Karasic, of the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, agrees.

设在迪拜的近东与波斯湾军事分析研究所研究部主任卡拉西奇也认同这种观点。

"It only takes one little accident or incident to set off a chain of events that could ultimately lead to some kind of military confrontation and it is possible that the islands' issue could do that," say Karasic.

卡拉西奇说：“只需一件偶然发生的很小的事就会激起一连串的反应，最终还可能导致某种程度的军事对抗。这些岛屿的争端就有可能引起更大的冲突。”

All three of the disputed islands are controlled by Iran and lie near the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies are shipped.

所有这三个有争议的岛屿都被伊朗控制了，它们位于霍尔木兹海峡附近，世界上运输的石油中大约五分之一都是从霍尔木兹海峡经过的。Tehran has threatened to close the Strait in response to sanctions targeting its nuclear program and would likely use troops stationed on Abu Musa to do so.

德黑兰威胁要封锁霍尔木兹海峡，以应对针对其核计划实施的制裁。伊朗很可能会动用驻扎在阿布穆萨岛上的部队完成这项任务。

Political risks analyst Andrew Bond, of the Institute of Gulf Affairs in Washington D. C., says many countries, including the United States, are concerned the islands confrontation could have a future impact on global oil supplies.

位于美国首都华盛顿的海湾事务研究所的政治风险分析人士安德鲁.邦德说，许多国家，包括美国在内，都担心这几个岛屿的争端将来可能会对全球石油供应产生影响。

"There are some people in the [U.S.] administration who are nervous right now with what is going on," said Bond.

邦德说：“美国政府中一些人对目前的这一状况感到很紧张。”

On Sunday, Iran’s Majlis (legislature) National Security and Foreign Policy Committee reportedly held a meeting on Abu Musa to coincide with the Arab military drills.

据报道，伊朗伊斯兰议会的国家安全与对外政策委员会星期天就阿布穆萨岛的争端召开了一次会议，而与此同时，波斯湾的阿拉伯国家开始举行联合军演。

The drills are being carried out by the Peninsula Shield Force, the joint army of the Gulf Arab states, to test the ability of ground, air and naval troops to carry out missions along coasts and on islands in territorial waters.

这次军演由波斯湾阿拉伯国家的半岛防御自卫联合部队进行，目的是测试他们的海陆空三军在海岸线以及他们的领海范围岛屿的作战能力。

Peninsula Shield soldiers were used to quell Bahrain’s anti-government uprising last year.

The United Arab Emirates says it is willing to take the islands dispute to international arbitration if a compromise cannot be reached diplomatically. Iran says its ownership if the islands is not negotiable.

阿拉伯联合酋长国说，如果不能通过外交途径达成妥协的话，它愿意把这些岛屿的争端提交国际仲裁。伊朗说，它对这些岛屿的主权是不可谈判的。