首席經濟學家：機器人將替代人類50%的工作
The robot takeover of the world may not be as dramatic as we thought. It won’t come in the form of explosions, but rather in the form of employment. Yikes.
機器人掌管世界不會像我們想象的那麼戲劇化。它會以受僱傭，而不是爆炸的形式出現。
In a classic scenario of the student surpassing the master, our eagerness to make robots that are increasingly sophisticated and capable of truly remarkable tasks has, perhaps, rendered ourselves rather redundant (if not altogether obsolete). “Technology appears to be resulting in faster, wider and deeper degrees of hollowing-out than in the past,” said Andy Haldane, the Bank’s chief economist. Because the machines of today can not only perform menial tasks, but are also capable of creative thought, humans may no longer be able to compete.
在學生趕超師傅的經典一幕中，我們急於製造更加複雜和能完成大任務的機器人可能只會使我們自己更加不被需要（如果不是完全過時的話）。銀行首席經濟學家安迪·哈爾丹說：“技術與以往相比呈現出更快，範圍更廣和更深程度的空洞化。”因爲今天的機器不僅能做不需要技巧的任務，還能有創造性的思考，很多任務人類可能都不能完成。
“These machines are different,” Haldane told cnn. “Unlike in the past, they have the potential to substitute for human brains as well as hands.”
安迪告訴美國廣播公司說：“這些機器是不一樣的，不同於過去的那些機器，他們有能力替代人類的雙手和大腦。”
So what jobs are most at risk? According to an Oxford University study published last year, loan officers, receptionists, paralegals, salespeople, drivers, security guards, fast food cooks, bartenders, and financial advisers all risk at least a 50 percent chance of being automated. And at this year’s Milken Global Conference in Los Angeles, Amy Webb, a digital media futurist and founder of Webbmedia Group, suggested that added marketers (a rather broad term), journalists, and lawyers to the mix too.
那麼什麼工作最具風險呢？根據牛津大學去年發表的研究顯示，貸款人員、接待員、律師、銷售員、司機、警衛、快餐廚師、調酒師和財務顧問，這些工作都有至少50%的機率被自動化。在今年的洛杉磯的米爾肯研究院全球會議（Milken Global Conference）上，韋伯媒體集團的創始人和數字媒體未來主義者艾米·韋伯認爲營銷人員（一個相當廣泛的術語）、記者和律師這些崗位也存在被替代風險。
Considering that much of journalism is already done by way of computers, to say that I’m completely unconcerned would be a bit of a stretch.
大部分新聞工作已經由電腦完成，說我完全不關心是有點誇張了。
But still, Haldane notes, humans don’t really have all that much to fear. Just because robots replace the jobs of today doesn’t mean that we won’t create new ones for tomorrow. “Humans will adapt their skills to the tasks where they continue to have a comparative advantage over machines,” he noted. Although to be fair, “The smarter machines become, the greater the likelihood that the space remaining for uniquely human skills could shrink further.”
但安迪仍說，人類沒必要那麼驚恐。因爲機器人代替人類今天的工作不代表我們人類明天不能創造新的工作。他說，“人類將應用他們的技能到一個新的領域中，他們仍會比機器人有優勢。”儘管公平來說，“機器越智能，人類獨特的技能空間可能就越小。”
So let this be a lesson to you, current and future college students. Pick a major that isn’t duplicable by robots. It may be the only way to stay competitive come the 22nd century.
所以敲響警鐘吧，現在和未來的大學生們。選擇一個不能被機器人替代的職業。這可能是在22世紀保持競爭力的唯一途徑。
Vocabulary
menial: 卑微的；適合僕人做的
duplicable: 可複製的
