兩個不同的阿拉伯世界

For the past six years, there have been two Arab worlds. The world of violence and tragedy; and the world of glitz and globalisation. Syria, Iraq, Libya and, to a lesser extent, Egypt — have been engulfed by conflict. But Qatar, Abu Dhabi and Dubai have prospered as global hubs for travel, leisure, business and finance. The booming Gulf metropolises seemed untouched by the violence in the rest of the Middle East. They even profited indirectly, as safe havens in a region in turmoil.

過去6年裏，一直存在着兩個阿拉伯世界：暴力與悲劇的阿拉伯世界；以及浮華與全球化的阿拉伯世界。敘利亞、伊拉克、利比亞都陷入了衝突，埃及也是如此，不過程度較輕。但是，卡塔爾、阿布扎比和迪拜一直蓬勃發展，成爲了全球旅遊、休閒、商業與金融中心。這些蒸蒸日上的海灣大都會似乎沒有受到中東其他地區暴力活動的影響。它們甚至間接獲益了——充當了一個混亂地區中的安全港。

But the wall between the two Arab worlds is breaking down. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (which includes Abu Dhabi and Dubai) have imposed a blockade on Qatar — claiming that the Qataris have been supporting jihadi movements across the region, and particularly in Syria and Libya. As a result, the illusion that the wealthy Gulf could remain uncontaminated by the wider conflicts in the Middle East has been shattered.

但是，分隔兩個阿拉伯世界的高牆正在坍塌。沙特阿拉伯、巴林、埃及和阿聯酋（包括阿布扎比和迪拜）對卡塔爾實施了封鎖——聲稱卡塔爾人一直在支持全地區、尤其是敘利亞和利比亞的聖戰運動。結果是，如下幻覺被擊碎了：富裕的海灣地區可以繼續不受中東更廣泛衝突的影響。

The obvious question is whether the dazzling rise of the Gulf states could be followed by an equally dazzling fall. If that were to happen, the implications would be global.

顯而易見的問題是，這些海灣國家在耀眼的崛起之後，是否可能迎來同樣耀眼的墜落？如果發生這種情形，其後果可能是全球性的。

One of the reasons that the world has been able to look on with chilling indifference as Syria and Libya disintegrate is that neither country plays a major role in the world economy. But that is not true of the Gulf states. A security crisis there would be felt in boardrooms and finance ministries all over the world.

當敘利亞和利比亞陷入分裂時，世界一直能以令人心寒的冷漠旁觀，原因之一在於，這兩個國家在世界經濟中都不扮演重要角色。但是，海灣國家並非如此。海灣國家一旦發生安全危機，全世界的董事會議室和財政部都將感受到其影響。

Although they are tiny places — Qatar and the UAE have populations of 2.2m and 9.1m respectively — the Gulf states play an outsize role in the global economy. Qatar is the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas. The Qatar Investment Authority holds large stakes in important western companies such as Volkswagen and Barclays — and has also invested its petrobillions in trophy assets around the world, including the Shard, London’s tallest building, and Harrods department store. The Qataris are also due to host the football World Cup in 2022.

儘管海灣國家都是彈丸之地——卡塔爾和阿聯酋的人口分別爲220萬和910萬——但它們在全球經濟中扮演着極其重要的角色。卡塔爾是世界上最大的液化天然氣(LNG)出口國。卡塔爾投資局(Qatar Investment Authority)持有大衆(Volkswagen)和巴克萊(Barclays)等重要西方公司的大量股權，也把數十億的石油美元投向全球一些值得炫耀的資產，比如倫敦最高建築“碎片大廈”(Shard)，以及哈羅得百貨(Harrods)。卡塔爾還將主辦2022年世界盃(World Cup)足球賽。

Dubai, meanwhile, has cleverly leveraged its proximity to Europe, South Asia, Africa and Russia to turn itself into the playground of the Middle East. The world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa, stands in downtown Dubai and Emirates airline is one of the largest in the world. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority controls assets of more than $800bn, which makes it the second-largest sovereign wealth fund in the world — and one of the world’s largest property owners.

另一方面，迪拜聰明地利用了其臨近歐洲、南亞、非洲和俄羅斯的優勢，把自己打造成了中東的遊樂場。世界最高建築哈利法塔(Burj Khalifa)坐落於迪拜市中心，阿聯酋航空(Emirates Airline)是全球最大航空公司之一。阿布扎比投資局(Abu Dhabi Investment Authority)管理着逾8000億美元的資產，是全球第二大主權財富基金，以及全球最大的房產持有者之一。

And then there is Saudi Arabia — the biggest and most powerful country in the region — whose status as the world’s largest oil producer has long underlined its significance to the global economy.

接着是中東地區最大、最有實力的沙特阿拉伯，長期以來，沙特全球最大產油國的地位凸顯了它對於全球經濟的重要性。

It is hard to believe that the Gulf elites would risk their pleasantly privileged lives by plunging into conflict. But even before the Qatari crisis, tension has been rising in the region.

海灣精英階層過着令人羨慕的特權生活，很難相信他們會願意冒着失去這種生活的風險，投身於衝突中。但是，即便在卡塔爾危機爆發之前，中東地區的緊張局勢也一直在升級。

The Saudi and Emirati complaint that the Qataris have been funding jihadis across the region has been echoed by western officials. But the argument that this dispute is solely about terrorism is undermined by the fact that the Saudis themselves have been notorious for exporting and promoting the Salafi ideology that underpins jihadi movements.

沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋抱怨卡塔爾人一直在資助中東聖戰分子，西方官員也這樣說。但是，這場爭端僅僅關乎恐怖主義的主張，被如下事實削弱了：沙特人自己因爲輸出和推廣薩拉菲(Salafi)意識形態而臭名昭著，該意識形態正是聖戰運動的支柱。

The reality is that the Saudis have long resented Qatar’s successful efforts to strut the international stage as an independent actor — something symbolised by the country’s sponsorship of Al Jazeera, which has provided a platform for the Muslim Brotherhood, a group detested by the Saudis. Saudi Arabia also believes Qatar has got far too close to Iran.

事實上，對卡塔爾成功地以獨立力量的姿態趾高氣昂地行走在國際舞臺上，沙特人長期感到不滿。卡塔爾這一姿態的標誌是，它贊助半島電視臺(Al Jazeera)。半島電視臺爲沙特人憎恨的團體穆斯林兄弟會(Muslim Brotherhood)提供了一個平臺。

This fear of rising Iranian influence across the region has already led the Saudis and the Emiratis to go to war in neighbouring Yemen — with grim consequences for the civilian population. One ironic consequence of the blockade of Qatar is that it could force the country to get closer to Iran.

對伊朗在中東不斷擴大的影響力的擔憂，已導致沙特和阿聯酋對鄰國也門開戰，戰爭讓平民遭殃。封鎖卡塔爾的一個具有諷刺意味的後果是，這可能迫使該國向伊朗靠得更近。

Under normal circumstances, the US would do its utmost to smooth over a dangerous dispute between its Gulf allies. But these are far from normal times in Washington. Donald Trump has taken the Saudi side in the dispute — indeed the US president may well have given the green light to the Saudi-led blockade, during his visit to the kingdom last month.

在正常情況下，美國將盡最大努力平息各海灣盟國之間的危險爭端。但現在華盛頓遠非處於正常時期。唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)在這場爭端中站到了沙特那邊，實際上在上月訪問沙特時，這位美國總統很可能對這場沙特主導的封鎖點了頭。

By contrast, the State Department and the Pentagon are clearly trying to play a more neutral role, not least because Qatar is host to the largest American air base in the Middle East.

相比之下，美國國務院和五角大樓明顯正努力採取更中立的立場，重要原因在於美國在卡塔爾設有其中東地區最大的空軍基地。

Qatar has reason to be thankful for the large US military presence in the country. Were it not for that, the Qataris would be much more vulnerable to a Saudi-led military intervention. Even so, it is unclear whether the Saudis and Emiratis have a plausible endgame in mind, short of total capitulation by Qatar. If that is not achieved in short order, the risks of a military conflict will remain and the economic damage from the blockade will grow and contaminate the region.

卡塔爾有理由感激美國在本國的大規模軍事存在。如果不是因爲這一點，卡塔爾人在面對一場沙特領導的軍事幹預時將更爲脆弱。即便如此，除了卡塔爾完全投降之外，沙特人和阿聯酋人心裏是否還設想了別的什麼可能實現的結局，我們不得而知。如果卡塔爾沒有在短期內完全投降，那麼軍事衝突的風險將持續存在，封鎖造成的經濟損失將越來越大，並影響整個中東地區。

For residents and tourists in the Gulf, the wars in the Middle East have been taking place in flyover country — places that they can glance down at from thousands of feet, as they take their Emirates or Etihad flights to Europe or the US. But the Qatar crisis suggests that the days when the tragedies of the Middle East could be kept at a safe distance from the booming Gulf may be over.

對於海灣地區的居民和遊客而言，中東戰爭一直在他們飛行時經過的國家裏上演——在乘坐阿聯酋航空或阿提哈德航空(Etihad)航班前往歐洲或美國途中，他們可以從數千英尺的高空俯視這些地方。但卡塔爾危機暗示，那個蒸蒸日上的海灣地區能夠跟中東悲劇保持安全距離的日子，也許已一去不復返。