美國正失去世界的高技術人才移民份額

These documents have become less sought after among the ranks of the world's highly skilled migrants.

這些文獻越來越少地被世界級排名的高技術移民者翻閱。

The United States has always been known as a nation of immigrants and a top destination for scientists and other highly skilled professionals. That ability to attract the world's most educated and innovative people to its shores has often been credited with powering the US economy.

衆所周知，美國是個移民國家，是那些科學家以及其他高技術專業人員移民的首選目的地。美國有着能吸引世界受過高等教育和具有創新意識的人們來到美國的能力，是推動美國經濟的動力。

But strikingly, a new study of worldwide migration patterns suggests the US is losing its reputation as a mecca for professionals as its global share of the most highly educated migrants declines. The result raises the question of whether the country can remain competitive in attracting top talent in an increasingly globalized economy.

但是顯而易見的是，一個關於全世界範圍移民模式的新研究表明美國正失去作爲專業人員聖地的聲譽，因爲受過高等教育移民者份額在減少。研究結果引發疑問：在經濟日益全球化的情況下，美國是否還能保持具有吸引頂尖人才的競爭力。

Colleagues and I analyzed recent trends in international migration of highly skilled workers – those with bachelor's degrees or higher – using a data set of unprecedented detail, extracted from LinkedIn, the social networking website for professionals.

我和同事們採用了叫領英網的職業社交網站上的數據集，分析了擁有學士學位或更高學位的高技術人才近期的移民趨勢。

LinkedIn counts more than 200 million members in more than 200 countries and territories. People typically use their LinkedIn profiles to post their employment and educational history. That information provides the most comprehensive and up-to-date picture of the international flows of highly skilled migrants.

領英網擁有超過2億的會員，分別來自200多個國家和地區。人們通常使用領英網上個人簡介功能來發布他們的經歷以及學歷背景。這些信息提供了最全面的以及最新的高技術移民者國際流動走向。

Respecting the privacy of LinkedIn's members was a primary concern for us. We removed all personally identifiable information from our data set before conducting the study and only analyzed data in aggregate.

尊重領英網會員的隱私是我們首要考慮的問題。在開始我們的研究之前，我們從數據集中去除所有個人身份信息，僅分析整體數據。

The study leveraged various aspects of LinkedIn's Economic Graph – a digital map of the world economy based on member profiles – to understand trends in migration patterns. The research is the result of a collaboration between Bogdan State, who at the time was a Sociology PhD student at Stanford University, Mario Rodriguez, a Senior Data Scientist at LinkedIn, Dirk Helbing, a Professor at ETH Zurich and Emilio Zagheni, an Assistant Professor at the University of Washington, Seattle.

這項研究對領英網經濟圖譜的許多方面起到了槓桿作用-一幅基於會員簡歷的世界經濟的數字地圖-來理解移民模式的發展趨勢。這項研究是由斯坦福大學社會學博士生Boqdan State，領英網高級數據科學家Mario Rodriguez，蘇黎世聯邦理工學院教授Dirk Helbing，以及西雅圖的華盛頓大學助理教授Emilio Zagheni 共同合作的成果。

A topic ignored

被忽視的問題

Most of the public discussion on immigration reform has focused on the issue of undocumented immigrants living in the US and the potential consequences of highly-skilled immigrations on jobs and wages of Americans. Less attention has been paid, however, to the changing position of the United States as a destination of the world's most sought after migrants.

關於移民改革的大多數公衆討論集中在非法移民和高技術移民對美國的就業和收入的潛在影響之上。而越來越少關注在作爲世界級移民目的地的美國的地位正在改變上。

Our study, which comes at a time when the country is mired in a divisive fight over such reform, counters conventional wisdom that the US is the incontestable top choice for professionals migrating from other countries.

當美國正陷於這樣的改革爭論中，我們的研究正逢時機的出現了，打破了美國是那些來自其他國家的專業人員無可爭議的首選移民地的傳統觀點。

We tracked the proportion of migrants whose destination was the United States, out of all migrants observed during a particular calendar year, covering the period from 1990 to 2012. In our sample of LinkedIn users, we observed a slight increase of the fraction of migrants who went to the US during the 1990s, followed by a sharp downward trend after the year 2000.

我們追蹤了自1990年至2012年那些移民美國的人口比例，而非特定的某一年內的。在那些領英網用戶樣本中，我們發現前往美國的移民人口在90年代期間有輕微增長，但2000年之後有顯著下滑趨勢。

While 27% of migrating professionals chose the US in 2000, just 13% did in 2012. The decline was seen across education levels, from bachelor's to doctorates. The biggest drop was among those in the science, technology, engineering and math fields, from 37% to 15%.

2000年有27%的移民專業人員選擇了美國，但到了2012年只有13%。下降趨勢充斥着整個學歷層次，下至學士上至博士。最大的下降趨勢影響在那些科學，技術，工程和數學領域，從37%跌至15%。

The biggest beneficiaries of the change were Asian countries, which witnessed the highest increase in professional migrants, attracting a cumulative 26% in 2012, compared with just 10% in 2000.

這個改變的最大獲益者是亞洲國家，擁有最大幅度的專業技術移民增加，和2000年的10%相比，2012年吸引了累計26%的專業技術移民。

Increasing opportunities or a drop in demand?

創造機會或減少需求

The patterns that we observed could be tied to a variety of factors from improved career opportunities across the globe to a drop in demand for highly skilled migrants in the US or inefficiencies in its immigration system.

我們發現這個模式可能和多種因素有關，從增進全球就業機會到美國對高技術移民者的需求量下降或移民體系的不足。

During the first decade of the 21st century, for example, the US experienced two major economic crises: the collapse of the “dot-com bubble” from 1999 to 2001 and the financial crisis of 2008. These crises adversely affected opportunities for immigrants in the US.

在21世紀頭10年中，舉個例子，美國經歷了兩次重大的經濟危機：1999至2001年間互聯網泡沫的破裂，以及2008年經濟危機。這些危機對美國的移民者有着不利的影響。

Nonetheless, our findings indicate more than a reaction to short-term crises. Long-term structural changes are taking place in the global system of employment-based, highly skilled migration.

儘管如此，我們的研究結果表明短期危機出現了不止一個反應。長期的結構改變正影響全球高技術人才移民就業體系。

Skilled immigrants have been a source of innovation and economic strength for the United States. One of the implications of the study is that, in the increasing global competition for talent, the US will have to work harder to attract and retain the world's best and brightest. That may be an issue Americans will have to ponder as they debate the best way to implement immigration reform.

技術移民已成爲美國革新和經濟力量的來源。這項研究表明在日益增長的全球人才競爭中，美國不得不更加努力的吸引並留住世界頂尖人才。正如他們爲實施移民改革的最佳途徑而爭論那樣，那可能會是美國人不得不仔細考慮的問題。