亞洲期貨交易所盯上機構投資者

High in a building in central Kuala Lumpur, not far from the twin Petronas Towers that dominate the Malaysian capital’s skyline, staff at Oriental Pacific Futures are busy broking futures for some of the group’s 1,000 or so clients.
Since late last year, when trading volume on Bursa Malaysia’s equities market started to slow, there has been more interest in trading futures in Southeast Asia’s third-largest economy, says Ryan Chua, manager of dealing. “People see there’s more volatility with futures so they are more willing to give it a try,” he says.
Derivatives trading on Bursa hit a record last year, up 17 per cent year on year. The most widely traded contracts were palm oil futures, which allow traders to speculate on prices of the edible oil, of which Malaysia is one of the largest producers. That contract grew 28 per cent in volume during 2014.
Malaysia is not well known for futures trading, and nor is the region, outside Japan, South Korea and Singapore, which have more developed markets.
But that is changing. Exchanges have been upgrading their trading systems and putting on roadshows to promote use of derivatives among an unexpected group: retail investors. Most of them are male and in their 30s — the typical client at Oriental Pacific, which was set up in 2007 by its parent Julong, a palm oil company based in China.
In Thailand retail investors accounted for 55 per cent of volume on the local futures exchange last year. Brokers say the high proportion of retail participation in Asia’s derivatives markets is a result of speculative appetite in many parts of the region.
Bourses are also tapping a growing middle class that is becoming familiar with futures trading, which is riskier than equities but can offer higher returns.
Not everyone thinks this is the best way to ensure sustainable growth for Asia’s futures markets, however. Industry experts say the region should encourage institutional participants. “Derivatives are a hedging tool and not actually created purely for speculation, so for a healthy market you need to see a balance between retail and institutional investors,” says Matthew Png, chief executive of UOB Bullion & Futures, the futures broking unit of Singapore’s United Overseas Bank.
One way to judge the degree of speculation on a futures market is the ratio of open interest to volume. Open interest is the amount of margin collateral left at the clearing house overnight, and indicates intent to trade in the future. Historically the ratio at futures exchanges in China — so far limited to domestic participants — has been low, indicating relatively few positions held for longer than a single trading session.
“People are trading for the sake of trading,” says Bill Herder, president of the US-based Futures Industry Association’s Asia chapter, in Singapore. “Is that always a good thing?”
Tim Massad, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said on a visit to Singapore last week that he thought regulators in Asia — particularly China — were aware of the need to encourage institutional participation in futures. “I think you are going to see developments in [that direction] because as the Asian economies continue to grow and become more sophisticated, they need well-developed derivatives markets,” he said.
Foreign banks are preparing their responses to a consultation paper issued last month by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on its plans to give foreigners access to commodity futures — starting with a crude oil contract launched last year on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
That is being taken as a sign of China’s interest in institutional involvement, to ensure balanced market participation.
South Korean authorities were among the first to tackle the issue, in 2010, when regulators took measures to curb speculative activity in Kospi options and futures. Until that point they were so popular with retail investors that Seoul ranked as the world’s largest futures market by number of contracts traded.
Mr Png says exchanges in Asia need a broader set of products, such as government bond and interest rate futures — mainstays of western exchanges — to attract institutional participants. But lack of depth in Asian bond markets remains one impediment. “The growth in the underlying [asset class] needs to pick up first,” he says.
Bursa Malaysia has taken steps in this direction. In December it relaunched a five-year government bond future. The exchange is also planning to reform its membership criteria to encourage the creation of groups of traders — known as “arcades” in the west.
“It’s so that we encourage people to trade professionally and continually, including through mentorship and training,” says Chong Kim Seng, chief executive of Bursa Malaysia Derivatives. “Our whole vision is to get up to the level of the US and Europe.”

在東泰期貨(Oriental Pacific Futures)位於吉隆坡市中心一棟大樓高層的辦公室內，員工們正忙着爲一些客戶執行期貨交易。該公司有約1000名客戶，距離主宰這座首都城市天際線的雙峯塔(Petronas Towers)不遠。
交易經理Ryan Chua表示，自去年底馬來西亞證交所(Bursa Malaysia)的股票成交量開始放緩以來，在這個東南亞第三大經濟體，人們對期貨交易的興趣越來越濃厚。他說：“人們看到，期貨價格波動更大，所以他們更願意嘗試一下期貨交易。”
去年馬來西亞證交所的衍生品交易額創下紀錄，同比增加17%。交易最多的是棕櫚油期貨合約，2014年棕櫚油期貨合約成交量增加了28%，這種期貨合約讓交易者可對這種食用油的價格展開投機。馬來西亞是全球最大的棕櫚油生產國之一。
馬來西亞並不以期貨交易而聞名，除日本、韓國和新加坡之外的亞洲地區也是如此。上述三個國家的期貨市場更發達。
但這一局面開始發生改變。各交易所一直在升級交易系統並進行路演，以在散戶投資者這個令人意想不到的羣體中推廣衍生品交易。他們多爲30多歲的男性，是東泰期貨的典型客戶。東泰期貨成立於2007年，母公司爲中國的棕櫚油企業聚龍集團(Julong)。
泰國去年當地期貨交易所的成交量中有55%是由散戶投資者創造的。經紀商表示，亞洲衍生品市場散戶參與比例高的原因，在於亞洲許多地區存在的投機心態。
各交易所也在開發對期貨交易越來越熟悉的不斷壯大的中產階層客戶。期貨交易比股票交易風險更大，但回報率也更高。
然而，並非所有人都認爲這是確保亞洲期貨市場可持續發展的最佳途徑。業內專家表示，亞洲應當鼓勵更多機構投資者參與進來。“衍生品是一種套期保值工具，實際上並不是純粹爲投機而創造的，所以，對一個健康的市場而言，散戶和機構投資者之間需要達到一定的平衡，”新加坡大華銀行(United Overseas Bank)期貨經紀子公司UOB Bullion & Futures的首席執行官Matthew Png表示。
判斷一個期貨市場投機程度的一條途徑，是考察持倉量/交易量比率。持倉量是指留在清算所的隔夜保證金數量，它反映未來的交易意圖。從歷史上看，中國期貨交易所的該比率一直處於低位，表明投資者相對只保持很低的倉位超過一個交易日。中國的期貨交易所目前僅限國內投資者加入。
“人們是爲了交易而交易，”美國期貨業協會(Futures Industry Association)新加坡亞洲分部的總裁比爾•赫德(Bill Herder)表示，“這總是一件好事嗎？”
美國商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)主席蒂姆•馬薩德(Tim Massad)上週訪問新加坡時表示，他認爲，亞洲、尤其是中國的監管機構已意識到鼓勵機構投資者參與期貨交易的必要性。“我認爲，大家將會看到（這個方向的）進展，因爲隨着亞洲經濟體的持續增長並日臻成熟，它們會需要發達的衍生品市場，”他說。
上月，中國證監會(CSRC)就其允許外資進入商品期貨市場的計劃發出了一份徵求意見稿，多家外資銀行目前正準備給出迴應。外資准入將首先從上海期貨交易所(Shanghai Futures Exchange)去年推出的原油期貨合約開始。
外界認爲這表明中國有意鼓勵機構投資者參與，確保投資者的市場參與平衡。
2010年，韓國當局成爲率先解決這一問題的亞洲當局之一。當年，韓國監管機構採取了措施，以抑制針對韓國綜合指數(Kospi)期權和期貨的投機行爲。在那之前，該指數期權和期貨在散戶投資者中相當受歡迎，以至於首爾成爲全球期貨合約成交量最大的期貨市場。
Matthew Png表示，亞洲的交易所需要提供範圍更廣的產品，比如佔據西方交易所主流的國債期貨和利率期貨，以此吸引機構投資者的參與。但亞洲債券市場的深度不夠，仍是一個障礙因素。“這首先需要標的（資產類別）的增長提速，”他說。
馬來西亞證交所已朝這個方向採取不少措施，於去年12月再度推出了一種5年期國債期貨。該交易所也打算改革其會員標準，以推動創建交易員羣組——這在西方被稱爲“交易行”。
“我們以這種方法鼓勵人們專業、持續地交易，包括提供輔導和培訓，”馬來西亞衍生品交易所(Bursa Malaysia Derivatives)首席執行官Chong Kim Seng表示，“我們的願景是趕上美國和歐洲的水平。”