中國着眼打一場油價"持久戰"

This week, Cnooc announced plans to reduce capital spending as the government and large state-owned enterprises respond to the collapse in oil prices. China’s third-largest oil producer said it would cut development spending by 67 per cent and, albeit less dramatically, reduce exploration and production capital expenditure.

隨着中國政府和大型國有企業對油價暴跌做出反應，中海油(CNOOC)本週宣佈了削減資本支出的計劃。這家中國第三大石油生產商表示，開發投資、勘探投資和生產資本化投資都將大幅削減。

At the same time, the Beijing government and refiners such as Zhuhai Zhenrong have increased their purchases of crude oil to record levels. Sinopec, another big state-owned energy enterprise, opened up a tank farm for crude oil on the resort island of Hainan in November.

與此同時，中國政府和珠海振戎(Zhuhai Zhenrong)等精煉商將原油採購量提升至創紀錄的水平。去年11月，另一家大型國有能源企業中石化(Sinopec)，在度假勝地海南島上興建的一座原油儲備基地投入試運行。

These apparently contradictory signals reflect changes in the sources of growth in a slowing Chinese economy and show how the government and corporate China are exploiting the collapse to reduce their longer-term vulnerability to price swings in the volatile energy market.

這些看似矛盾的信號，反映出中國日益放緩的經濟中增長來源的改變，同時表明中國政府和企業正在利用油價暴跌的機會，來降低它們應對震盪市場中價格波動的長期脆弱性。

It is easy to understand why Cnooc is cutting back spending. The economy is growing slightly below the level the cadres have commanded and slowed to 7.1 per cent in the final quarter of 2014. Reinforcing that trend is the fact that the energy intensity of Chinese production has gone down. Chinese crude oil demand per unit of gross domestic product has been dropping by 4.3 per cent a year since 2005, according to data from JPMorgan Private Bank.

很容易理解中海油爲何要削減支出。中國經濟增速略低於官員們要求的水平，在2014年最後一個季度放緩至7.1%。讓這種趨勢更加明顯的是，中國的單位產值能耗已經下降。摩根大通私人銀行(JPMorgan Private Bank)的數據顯示，中國每單位GDP的原油需求自2005年以來每年下降4.3%。

Moreover, as the sources of growth shift slowly from manufacturing to services and from exports to domestic demand, that drop will probably accelerate, making further oil capex cuts likely — and shareholders happier.

此外，隨着增長來源逐步從製造業轉向服務業，以及從出口轉向內需，能耗下降很可能會加速，從而導致石油資本支出進一步被削減（這回股東們更高興了）。

But China is also looking ahead and taking advantage of the speedy and unexpected reversal in the oil price.

但中國也在着眼於未來，利用油價走勢快速且意料之外的逆轉帶來的機會。

The increase in demand for crude on the mainland comes because China is exploiting lower oil prices to dramatically boost its storage capacity for both commercial and strategic reasons. By doing so, it will address one of its perennial weaknesses, its reliance on imported energy, and make itself more competitive.

中國內地對原油的需求增加，因爲中國利用油價下跌的機會，大幅提高商業和戰略儲備能力。中國這麼做將會解決長期困擾自己的一個問題——對進口能源的依賴——並讓自己變得更有競爭力。

The move comes at a moment when pessimism about Chinese prospects generally is on the rise. That downbeat attitude reflects chronic excess capacity, an overbuilt property market and concerns about a corporate sector that has borrowed too much, whether in renminbi or appreciating US dollars.

在中國提高原油儲備能力之際，外界日益對中國經濟前景感到悲觀。這種悲觀態度反映了長期的產能過剩、過度建設的房地產市場以及對過度借貸（無論借的是人民幣還是日益升值的美元）的企業部門的擔憂。

The way China is taking advantage of the declining oil price also suggests that some of the pessimism is unwarranted. The dramatic expansion in commercial and strategic holdings of crude while the price is half of what it was just months ago is only part of the story. The government is also increasing taxes rather than passing on the full benefit of bargain fuel prices to consumers.

中國利用油價下跌的方式也表明，某些悲觀情緒沒有必要。商業和戰略原油儲備大幅增加，同時價格是僅僅數月前的一半，這只是一個方面。中國政府也在增加稅收，而不是將油價下跌的全部益處傳遞給消費者。

Those taxes will go partly to dealing with China’s monumental environmental issues, according to Miswin Mahesh, Barclays’ commodities analyst in London. That spending should be good for China and its neighbours, if the past is any guide. Up to now, Chinese growth has been good news for the rest of the world. In 1990, China’s contribution to global GDP growth was 5 per cent. Since 2010, the figure has swelled to more than 40 per cent. Its role as a crutch for world growth has become especially important as the growth rate of other emerging markets has fallen. (Last year, emerging markets as a whole grew only 4 per cent — the worst figure since 2009 — and this year may even drop slightly below that.)

巴克萊(Barclays)駐倫敦的大宗商品分析師米思文•馬赫什(Miswin Mahesh)表示，那些稅收將有部分用於解決中國嚴峻的環境問題。如果歷史可以爲鑑，這種支出應該有利於中國及其鄰國。迄今爲止，對全球其他國家來說，中國增長一直是好消息。在1990年，中國對全球GDP增長的貢獻是5%。自2010年以來，這一數據升至逾40%。隨着其他新興市場增長放緩，中國作爲全球增長支柱的角色變得尤其重要（去年，新興市場整體僅增長4%——這是自2009年以來的最低水平——今年的增長甚至還會下降一些）。

China’s demand for crude is already lifting the fortunes of shippers and others. Among the biggest beneficiaries of the increase in Chinese appetite for crude is Iran, says Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst with Energy Aspects in Houston and London. Indeed, Chinese demand for oil from Iran accounts for more than India, Japan, and South Korea combined. (All these countries have received specific exemptions from US-imposed sanctions on Iran, and they may also import more than the level the waivers allow.)

中國對原油的需求已經爲船運公司和其他公司帶來了好運。Energy Aspects駐休斯頓和倫敦的首席原油分析師阿姆裏塔•森(Amrita Sen)表示，中國原油需求增加的最大受益者包括伊朗。實際上，中國從伊朗進口原油的需求比印度、日本和韓國進口伊朗石油的總和還要多（所有這些國家都不用參與美國對伊朗的制裁，而它們進口的數量也可能高於豁免的水平）。

Earlier on, before China received permission from the US to procure Iranian oil, the country paid for its Iranian imports in renminbi. But today, Ms Sen says, the Chinese are using dollars. That benefits both sides. Tehran finds dollars more useful than renminbi as there are still controls on what Iran can do with its Chinese currency.

在美國允許中國採購伊朗石油之前的更早些時候，中國用人民幣支付進口的伊朗石油。但是森表示，如今中國使用美元結算。這對雙方都有利。德黑蘭發現美元比人民幣更有用，因爲伊朗在使用人民幣方面仍存在限制。

At the same time, China has clearly decided it is better to obtain real assets, such as oil, with its dollars than to purchase paper securities.

與此同時，中國顯然意識到，用美元獲取石油等實物資產比購買紙質證券更有利。

Right now, both US Treasuries and the US dollar look attractive, while oil does not. But China always takes the long view — and in the long term neither Treasury securities nor the greenback seem as attractive as they do today — at least as seen from Beijing.

就目前而言，美國國債和美元看起來都很有吸引力，而原油則並非如此。但中國始終着眼於長遠——長期來說，美國國債和美元似乎都不如現在有吸引力，至少在北京方面看來是這樣。