投資美股必讀 年一大波熱門科技公司將IPO

Box raised $175 million on Friday in the first initial public offering of 2015 by a hot technology startup. Despite significant losses on the business software company’s income statement, investors were happy to welcome it. Shares of the Los Altos, Calif. company BOX -2.71% surged as much as 76% on its first day of trading.

上週，作爲2015年第一家首發上市的熱門初創型科技企業，總部設在加州洛斯阿爾託斯的雲存儲服務公司Box籌集了1.75億美元。儘管在損益表中披露了鉅額虧損，Box仍受到了投資者熱捧。上市當天，該公司股價一度飆升76%。

Does this presage a blockbuster year for tech IPOs? In recent years investors saw two of the biggest IPOs ever: Facebook’s FB -0.43% $16 billion offering in 2012 and Alibaba’s BABA 0.85% $22 billion deal in 2014. The market has yet to lose major momentum. Will that continue?

這是否預示着今年將迎來科技公司的IPO盛宴呢？過去幾年中出現了兩次歷史上規模最大的IPO——2012年Facebook上市，募集資金160億美元；2014年阿里巴巴上市，籌集了220億美元。市場依然樂此不疲。這種情況會延續下去嗎？

The answer is “maybe.” There are a number of household names in the tech industry that observers expect (or hope) to soon list on U.S. exchanges, allowing consumers to have a chance to own a piece of the companies they help support. Among them: Uber, Airbnb, Dropbox, Pinterest, and Snapchat. (See each company’s valuation on Fortune‘s first-ever Unicorn List, updated quarterly.)

答案是“也許”。按照觀察人士的預測（或者說期望），很快就會有一系列人們耳熟能詳的科技企業在美國證券交易所上市，爲這些公司添磚加瓦的消費者將有機會變成股東。這些公司包括租車服務商Uber、租房網站Airbnb、雲服務公司Dropbox、視覺創意平臺Pinterest和圖片及視頻共享網站Snapchat（請參見《財富》雜誌首次推出的“獨角獸”公司（即估值超過10億美元）名單，每季度更新一次）。

But these startups have shown a willingness to stay private as long as possible. Many were thought to be prime IPO candidates in 2014. Most raised hundreds of millions of dollars in private markets this past year, buying them more time before they would have to face the public scrutiny and earnings circus that a public offering would entail. A few, such as Uber and Snapchat, raised huge rounds in the waning days of 2014, making a 2015 IPO less likely or even necessary.

不過，這些初創型企業都有意儘可能地延長其私有狀態的時間。其中許多都曾被視爲2014年的IPO大熱門。一年來，這些公司中的大多數都在私募市場籌集了數億美元，從而爲自己爭取了更多時間，不必立刻面對上市後公衆挑剔的目光，以及股價的起起落落。Uber和Snapchat等少數幾家公司在2014年即將結束之際大舉融資，這降低了它們在2015年首發上市的可能性，甚至是必要性。

Take Uber, for example. As much as individual investors would love to see an Uber IPO, the transportation company’s regulation-averse CEO, Travis Kalanick, may not feel the same way. Uber’s recent investment round left the company valued at $41 billion, though some expect it could be worth more than $100 billion should it make an offering this year. But that prospect is looking ’s international expansion is sure to face speed bumps as governments threaten, sue, or ban the service in many cities. Any setbacks can add volatility to public stocks; the company may prefer to remain private while it fights these regulatory battles. The ongoing, high-profile controversies involving Uber drivers could also weigh on the company’s shares in the public market.

以Uber爲例。就像個人投資者非常願意見到Uber首發一樣，該公司一向不服管束的首席執行官特拉維斯o卡蘭尼克可能非常不願意這樣做。最新一輪融資過後，Uber的估價達到了410億美元——有人預計，如果今年上市，其價值將超過1000億美元。但該公司IPO的可能性看來不大。在許多城市，Uber的業務都遭遇了來自政府的威脅、訴訟和禁令，這必將延緩該公司的國際擴張速度。任何不利因素都會加劇上市公司股價的波動幅度；在和監管部門較量的過程中，Uber可能更願意處於私有狀態。通過Uber爲他人提供代步服務的車主總是招來很大非議，如果該公司上市，這也可能給它的股價帶來壓力。

Airbnb is facing similar issues as it expands. Its business model clashes with current laws and the interests of the hotel industry. Airbnb raised $475 million in April, bringing its total private financing to about $800 million. The real estate rental company, recently valued at $13 billion, may be a more likely IPO candidate than Uber. But it could be generating enough cash to remain private.

Airbnb在擴張過程中也遇到了類似問題。該公司的經營模式和現行法律以及酒店業的利益存在衝突。去年4月份，Airbnb籌集了4.75億美元，這讓它的私募融資總額達到了8億美元左右。這家租房網站最近的估值爲130億美元，和Uber相比它更可能首發上市。但Airbnb也許能創造足夠的現金來保持私有狀態。

Timing IPOs used to be easier. For decades, there was a rule that companies with more than 500 shareholders had to file for a public offering. The JOBS Act of 2012 raised that figure to 2,000, giving companies the chance to stay private longer. Google and Facebook weren’t looking forward to going public at the time that they did, but the 500-shareholder rule forced their hands. Now companies can stay private with more shareholders and find access in private markets to the kinds of institutional investors who would be first in line during an IPO. Second and third-tier companies don’t have this luxury. But there’s a risk: Once the stronger, more sought-after names finally do go public, they could find that investors’ appetite for them has diminished. The stock market may also be less bullish than it’s been in recent months.

以前，預測IPO的時間並不是難事。過去幾十年中曾有一項規定，要求股東人數超過500名的公司必須申請上市。2012年的《創業企業融資法案》把這一數字提高到了2000人，這讓公司有可能在更長時間裏維持其私有狀態。谷歌和Facebook的上市並非發自內心，但“500名股東”的規定讓它們不得不這樣做。現在，私有公司可以有更多的股東，還可以在私募市場接觸到一些機構投資者——它們首發上市時這些機構投資者將率先出手。二、三線公司可沒有這樣的待遇。但這中間也蘊含着風險——實力較強、較受歡迎的企業最終上市後可能發現，投資者對它們的熱情已經消失。股市的表現可能也不會像近幾個月那樣強勁。

Fifty-three tech companies went public in 2014, but only a few of the big names that investors pined for—GoPro GPRO -4.00% andLendingClub LC 4.77% among them— ended up listing their shares. We’re likely to see a continuation of the trend in 2015 with smaller, lesser-known enterprise technology companies. (Read: “Beyond Box: 10 big business-tech IPOs in the offing.”) This is not necessarily a bad thing. Some of the top-performing IPOs of last year in all industries were companies like Zendesk ZEN -5.63% , up 173% from its offering price, and TubeMogul TUBE -2.40% , up 197%.

2014年上市的科技公司有53家，但投資者朝思暮想的重量級企業只有寥寥數家，比如攝像設備廠商GoPro和P2P貸款平臺LendingClub。2015年，這種情況可能延續下去，出現在我們面前的可能仍是規模較小而且較不知名的公司。這不一定是壞事。總的來說，去年表現最好的首發新股中也包括首日上漲173%的軟件公司Zendesk和首日上漲197%的視頻廣告平臺TubeMogul。

But if you’re looking to own a piece of best-known, most-desired IPO candidates—especially the ones you use daily on your smartphone—you may have to wait longer. The ones that can afford to stay private likely will.

不過，如果想持有名氣最大、人們最期待的那些IPO公司的新股，特別是那些智能手機日常應用製造商的股份，大家可能還要再等一段時間。只要能保持私有狀態，它們可能就不會上市。考慮一下急着上市的Box和Dropbox。它們的在線存儲業務都展現出了很強的實力。去年1月份，Dropbox通過權益融資獲得了3.5億美元，幾個月後又借發債籌集了5億美元。這些資金可供它使用很長時間。即使不選擇上市，這也足夠該公司支撐下去。