國際銅價重回6000美元上方
Copper held above $6,000 a tonne yesterday, returning to levels seen at the beginning of the year as the dollar retreated and equity markets in China rallied.
昨日銅價在每噸6000美元上方站住腳跟，回到今年初的水平，這得益於美元下跌、中國股市上漲。The metal used in wiring and power cables fell to its lowest level in five years in mid-January as demand in China weakened before the new year holiday and short sellers pushed down the metal.
1月中旬時，這種用於供電線路和電纜的金屬的價格下降至五年低點，原因在於春節假期之前中國需求下降，以及做空者出手打壓銅價。
That sentiment has temporarily eased over the past week after remarks from the Federal Reserve capped the dollar’s dramatic rise and stocks in China traded near a seven-year high on expectations of government stimulus.
市場情緒在過去一週暫時有所緩解，此前美聯儲(Fed)的表態遏制了美元的飆升，中國股市在有關政府刺激政策的預期推動下漲至7年新高。
The dollar index, a measure of the currency relative to its major trade partners, was down 0.7 per cent. A strong US currency is generally bad for most commodities since they are priced in dollars.
美元指數（衡量美元對美國主要貿易伙伴國貨幣匯率變化程度的指標）下降了0.7%。美元走強基本上對大多數大宗商品構成利空，因爲大宗商品是以美元定價的。Copper for three months delivery rose 1.2 per cent to $6,119.5 on the London Metal Exchange. In Shanghai, the most traded copper contract hit its highest level since early January.
在倫敦金屬交易所(LME)，三個月交割的銅價上漲1.2%，至每噸6119.5美元。在上海，交易最活躍的銅合約價格上升至1月初以來的最高水平。China’s benchmark stock index, the Shanghai Composite index, rallied for a ninth day on hopes of further monetary easing to boost flagging growth, with shares in Jiangxi Copper, the company’s biggest producer, up 3.9 per cent.
中國基準股指——上證綜指(Shanghai Composite index)連續第9日上漲，原因是市場預期政府將加大貨幣寬鬆力度，以提振疲弱的增長。中國最大的銅生產商江西銅業(Jiangxi Copper)股價上漲了約3.9%。Still, trade data released for February highlighted the weak demand for metals. Total copper metal unit imports were at the weakest levels since July 2011, according to Jefferies.
儘管如此，2月的貿易數據凸顯了金屬需求的疲軟。Jefferies數據顯示，銅的總進口量處於2011年7月以來最低水平。“Copper consumers are nervous and unwilling to commit while traders don’t want to hold too much material over fears that prices could drop further,” said Gayle Berry, an analyst at Jefferies. “That said, perhaps the worst is past; sentiment is already negative and there should be at least some sequential improvement in demand over the next month or so.”
“銅消費者感到緊張，不願下單，而交易商不願持有太多原材料，因爲他們擔心價格進一步下降，”Jefferies分析師蓋爾•貝瑞(Gayle Berry)表示。“即便如此，或許最壞時刻已過去；市場情緒已很悲觀，未來1個月左右，需求方面應會逐漸有所改善。”Copper’s fate this year is likely to hinge on the state of China’s property market and investment in power lines by state-owned State Grid. On the supply side, the market is expected to be balanced, according to analysts.
今年的銅價行情很可能取決於中國房地產市場狀況，以及國有的國家電網(State Grid)對輸電線的投資水平。分析師們表示，從供應面看，市場有望達到平衡。Given the tendency for disruptions at copper mines that can halt or curtail production, the downside to the price is relatively limited, according to Leon Westgate, an analyst at Standard Bank.
標準銀行(Standard Bank)分析師萊昂•韋斯特蓋特(Leon Westgate)表示，鑑於銅礦的生產常常受到干擾，可能導致生產中斷或產量受到抑制，銅價下跌空間相對有限。For the price to rise further, there would need to be seasonal improvement in Chinese industrial demand, normally between February and May, says Tom Price, analyst at Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析師湯姆•普萊斯(Tom Price)表示，銅價若要進一步上升，將需要中國工業需求發生季節性改善——通常發生在2月至5月間。
