中國農行壞賬率大幅升高

China’s third-largest bank has reported its first annual fall in quarterly profits in three years as bad loans rose by the most on record, an ominous sign for other big lenders due to report full-year results this week.

由於壞債出現創紀錄增幅，中國第三大銀行——中國農業銀行(Agricultural Bank of China)三年來首次報出季度盈利同比下滑。對於其他將在本週公佈全年業績的大銀行來說，這不是個好兆頭。

Analysts say the weaker than expected profit for Agricultural Bank of China reflects rising defaults amid an economic slowdown. China’s gross domestic product grew at its slowest pace in 24 years last year, and recent data suggest a further deceleration in the early months of 2015.

分析師表示，農行盈利低於預期，反映出中國經濟放緩過程中，違約現象增多。去年，中國國內生產總值(GDP)出現了24年來的最低增幅。最近的數據則顯示，2015年頭幾個月中國經濟進一步惡化。

AgBank said on Tuesday night that net income had fallen by 5 per cent in the last three months of 2014, the first annual decline in quarterly earnings since 2011.

週二晚農行表示，2014年最後三個月，該行淨收入下跌了5%。這是自2011年以來，該行季度盈利首次同比下跌。

“I expect this will be the industry trend this year," said Zou Hengchao, bank analyst at Minsheng Securities in Shanghai. “Bad loans will rise everywhere. The bad economy is the main reason.”

上海民生證券(Minsheng Securities)銀行分析師鄒恆超表示：“預計這種狀況會成爲今年的業內趨勢。壞債會全面增加。而經濟低迷是主要原因。”

AgBank’s non-performing loans rose by Rmb21.5bn ($3.5bn), the biggest quarterly rise since the lender began disclosing quarterly figures ahead of its 2010 initial public offering. The bank’s NPL ratio stood at 1.54 per cent by the end of 2014, from 1.29 per cent three months earlier, also marking a record increase.

該季度農行的不良貸款增加了215億元人民幣（合35億美元），這是自該行2010年上市前開始披露其季度數據以來的最大季度增幅。截止2014年底，農行不良貸款率爲1.54%，高於三個月前的1.29%，增幅也創下了紀錄。

The official NPL ratio for China’s entire banking system was 1.29 per cent as of the end of last year, the highest in more than four years. Analysts generally believe the true ratio may be higher, as banks can use various techniques to disguise their reported ratios.

去年底，中國整個銀行體系的官方不良貸款率是1.29%，是逾4年裏的最高比例。分析師普遍相信，由於銀行能用各種手法掩飾對外公佈的不良貸款率，真實的不良貸款率可能更高。

“Previously bad loans were concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta but now they are spreading to the central and western regions,” said Mr Zou. The Yangtze River Delta is the highly developed region comprising Shanghai and the surrounding provinces of Zhejiang and Jiangsu.

鄒恆超表示：“過去，不良貸款集中於長江三角洲，如今它們正向中西部地區擴散。”長江三角洲是中國高度發達地區，包括了上海市及其周邊的浙江和江蘇省。

The NPL rise at AgBank came despite aggressive disposals and write-offs of dud loans over the past year. China Merchants Securities Hong Kong estimates that the bank’s gross NPL formation ratio — which adjusts for disposals and write-offs — jumped to 1.64 per cent in the fourth quarter from 0.68 per cent three months earlier.

儘管農行過去一年裏大舉處置與覈銷不良貸款，但壞賬率仍在上升。招商證券(香港)(China Merchants Securities Hong Kong)估計，該行總的不良貸款生成率（gross NPL formation ratio，指將被處置與覈銷的不良貸款包括在內算出的比例）已從三個月前的0.68%躍升至第四季度的1.64%。

Manufacturing, real estate, wholesale and retail were the sectors hardest hit, a pattern likely to show up at other major banks.

壞賬出現最多的是受經濟放緩打擊最大的製造業、房地產、批發和零售產業，這種狀況在其他主要銀行的財報中可能也會有所體現。

Bank of China reports earnings on Wednesday afternoon, with the country’s two biggest lenders — Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank — to follow on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

中國銀行(Bank of China)於週三下午公佈財報。而中國最大的兩家銀行——中國工商銀行(Industrial and Commercial Bank of China)和中國建設銀行(China Construction Bank)——則會緊隨其後，在週四和週五分別公佈財報。

Reflecting rising credit risk, AgBank’s loan-loss provisions rose 28 per cent for the full year.

農行全年貸款虧損撥款增加了28%，反映出信貸風險的增長。

Signs of deteriorating asset quality are also showing up in unexpected places. Much of AgBank’s profit decline was the result of a 27 per cent annual increase in operating expenses for the quarter, which outpaced a robust 14 per cent rise in operating income.

此外，資產品質的惡化還出現在意想不到的地方。農行盈利下跌，很大原因是該季度運營開支同比增長27%，超過了其運營收入14%的強勁增長幅度。

Barclays bank analysts attribute the higher expenses to more provisions for off-balance-sheet items such as guarantees and commitments. Such provisions soared by 997 per cent for the full year.

巴克萊銀行(Barclays)分析師將農行開支的增長歸因於擔保和委託等表外項目撥款的增長，農行這類撥款全年激增了9.97倍。

Providing a bright spot, AgBank’s net interest margin ticked up slightly, bucking the long-term trend of narrowing margins as China’s government moves to liberalise deposit rates. Bankers expect funding costs to rise as rate liberalisation forces greater competition for depositors.

隨着中國政府着手放開存款利率，銀行淨息差存在不斷收窄的長期趨勢，然而農行的淨息差卻略有上升，這是其財報中的一處亮點。銀行業人士預計，隨着利率放開使得銀行攬儲壓力增大，資金成本將會升高。

But the relief on margins may be shortlived. The impact of two rate cuts in late November and early March — as well as parallel moves to free up deposit rates — was largely absent from fourth-quarter results.

不過，農行淨息差上升可能只是短期現象。去年11月底和今年3月初，中國央行(PBoC)曾兩次降息，同時放寬了存款利率浮動區間。這些舉措的影響基本上沒有在農行第四季度財報中體現出來。

Additional reporting by Ma Nan in Shanghai

Ma Nan上海補充報道