標普下調日本主權債務評級

Standard & Poor’s has slashed its rating on Japanese debt from AA- to A+ in what it framed as an indictment of prime minister Shinzo Abe’s economic strategy.

標準普爾(Standard & Poor's)將日本主權債務評級從AA-下調至A+，並將之歸咎於日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)的經濟戰略。

The downgrade is unlikely to trigger any immediate turmoil in the Japanese government bond markets, which are driven by deflation and large-scale asset buying by the Bank of Japan.

此次下調不太可能立即引發日本國債市場的動盪。日本國債市場的主導因素是通縮以及日本央行(Bank of Japan)的大規模資產購買計劃。

But the decision is likely to cause concern in Mr Abe’s office because S&P blamed it directly on disappointment with his economic policies.

但這一決定很可能會引發安倍內閣的關切，因爲標普將此次下調直接歸咎於安倍令人失望的經濟政策。

“Economic support for Japan’s sovereign creditworthiness has continued to weaken in the past three to four years,” the agency said.

標普表示：“過去三四年，日本主權信用得到的經濟支持越來越弱。

“Despite showing initial promise, we believe that the government’s economic revival strategy — dubbed ‘Abenomics’ — will not be able to reverse this deterioration in the next two to three years.”

“我們認爲，儘管一開始曾展現出光明的前景，但日本政府的經濟復興戰略——即所謂的‘安倍經濟學’(Abenomics)）——無力在未來兩三年內逆轉這種惡化趨勢。”

Other agencies have tended to frame their downgrades as an automatic response to Japan’s growing public debt. Fitch cut Japan to an A rating in April. Moody’s cut Japan’s rating to A1, the same as an A+ from S&P, last December.

其他評級機構往往將它們對日本主權債務評級的下調歸因於對日本公共債務日益增加的自然反應。今年4月，惠譽(Fitch)將日本的評級下調至A。去年12月，穆迪(Moody’s)將日本的評級下調至A1，相當於是標普的A+。

Japan has gross government debt amounting to 246.1 per cent of gross domestic product according to the International Monetary Fund, the highest of any advanced country, and a deficit of 6.2 per cent of GDP.

根據國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的數據，日本政府債務與國內生產總值(GDP)之比爲246.1%，在發達國家中排在首位，赤字則爲GDP的6.2%。

S&P said the outlook on its rating is stable. Eleven months ago S&P had affirmed its high rating on Japan, saying a downgrade would be warranted only if economic growth stumbled.

標普表示，日本的評級展望爲“穩定”。11個月前，標普維持了給予日本的高評級，表示只有在經濟增長大幅下挫時纔有理由下調。

It said Japan is still “relatively prosperous”, boasting a “diversified economy, political stability, and stable financial system”. But against this stands “a very weak fiscal position that the country’s ageing population and persistent deflation exacerbate”.

標普表示，日本現在仍“相對繁榮”，擁有“多元化的經濟、穩定的政治以及穩定的金融體系”。但與此相對的是，“財政狀況非常疲弱，而日益老齡化的人口以及持續存在的通縮令財政狀況變得更加疲弱”。

Household consumption has been weak since Japan lifted its national sales tax from 5 to 8 per cent in April of last year. Mr Abe had tried with only mixed success to persuade companies to lift wages.

去年4月，日本將國內銷售稅率從5%上調至8%，此後家庭消費一直乏力。安倍曾試圖說服企業上調薪資，但沒有取得完全的成功。

Inflation was supposed to hit 2 per cent last April, under an unprecedented programme of monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan. Instead, weak spending and a collapse in oil prices has thrown Japan back to the brink of deflation, a problem plaguing the country for nearly two decades.

在日本央行推出的空前貨幣刺激計劃的推動下，通脹率本應在4月份達到2%。但疲弱的支出以及油價暴跌將日本推回到通縮邊緣，通縮問題已困擾日本將近20年。