短線視點 近看中國經濟數據 China close up does not look so dire

There is a joke among Hong Kong investors that the further away from Beijing a commentator may be, the more certain the opinion on China.

香港投資者之間流傳着一個笑話：一個評論員離北京的距離越遙遠，他對自己關於中國的觀點就越確定。

By that measure, Argentines should be the most definite in their views. But those in New York and London cannot be far behind, and they are almost unanimous in their negativity. Their view was only reinforced by the Federal Reserve’s apparent reference to China’s slowdown in its decision not to raise interest rates last week. A growing number also refuse to trust Chinese data and prefer their own estimates — resulting in still-lower numbers.

以此來衡量，阿根廷人對自己的觀點應該是最確定的。不過那些身在紐約和倫敦的人也不會落後太遠，而這些人幾乎一致抱悲觀態度。而美聯儲(Fed)上週不加息的決定明顯是考慮到中國經濟放緩，這一點進一步支持了他們的觀點。拒絕信任中國的數據，寧願自己估計的人也越來越多——他們得出的中國增長率估值就更低。

That China’s economy is slowing and its data-collection is in need of improvement is not disputed. Its previous over-reliance on industry is clear and its data analysis is still that of an emerging market. In particular, its consumer data are poor compared with simpler measures of factory output and power generation.

中國的經濟正在放緩，其數據收集需要改善，這是不存在爭議的。中國此前顯然過於依賴於工業，中國的數據分析也依然停留在新興市場國家的水平。尤其是，比起工業產出和發電量這樣更簡單的衡量指標，其消費者數據質量不佳。

However, on some of the consumer-related numbers, China does not look quite so dire. In August, retail sales were up 11 per cent year on year, and airline passenger numbers rose by a tenth. Cinema box-office receipts were 45 per cent higher. At the same time, the number of big cities recording rising house prices hit a 12-month peak. Sales of 4G mobile phone contracts are rising almost 200 per cent, according to Bernstein — a rate only ever bettered by South Korea, the world leader in mobile internet adoption.

然而，在某些與消費者相關的數據方面，中國的情況看起來並沒有那麼糟糕。8月份，零售銷售額同比上漲11%，航空公司客運量增長10%。電影票房收入上升45%。同時，房價上升的大城市數量觸及12個月高點。據伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)的數據，中國的4G手機合約銷售增長了100%，曾經超越過這個數字的只有移動互聯網普及率居世界之首的韓國。

Those numbers do not suggest that growth is a long way below the reported, if doubted, 7 per cent — nor that consumers are worried about it. While the 4G adoption rate will have been boosted by the fact that China Mobile’s 3G standard is barely usable, those faster smartphones will only increase ecommerce — further muddying old indicators such as new store counts, which do not capture the online-to-offline market.

這些數據表明，中國的增長並非遠低於官方公佈（但是受到質疑）的7%，中國的消費者也並不爲增長放緩擔憂。儘管中國移動(China Mobile)的3G標準幾乎不可用的事實肯定是促使中國4G普及率提高的因素，但智能手機上網速度提高只會提振中國的電子商務業務——這進一步降低了新店數量等舊指標的指示作用，因爲這些數據沒有反映“線上到線下”(O2O)市場。

None of this is to say that China’s economy is not slowing, only that — like the proverbial elephant whose form the blind men tried to extrapolate solely from the bit they were holding — it does not look the same from all points.

以上都不是說中國經濟並未放緩，只是——就像盲人摸象的寓言一樣——中國的情況從各個角度來看並不相同。

Investors seeking to understand China better should perhaps do so from closer range — and remember that not every data set necessarily points down.

想要看懂中國的投資者們或許最好更近距離地觀察它，並記住並非每一組數據都指向下行的方向。