TPP樹立了標杆 TPP must not falter
After more than five years of negotiations, Monday morning 12 countries announced the successful conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade agreement that covers nearly 40 per cent of the global economy. This deal is a significant success for the Obama administration, with potentially profound geostrategic implications. The TPP has the potential to be one of the top two foreign policy successes of the Obama administration (along with the Iran nuclear deal) and could be one of his greatest legacies. Unfortunately, the signing is merely the first step –the US president is going to have a huge challenge in getting it through Congress.
經過5年多的談判後，12個國家在10月5日早晨宣佈成功簽署了《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》(TPP)。TPP涵蓋了全球近40%的經濟總量。對奧巴馬政府來說，該協定是一個巨大的成就，可能具有深遠的地緣政治影響。TPP有望成爲奧巴馬政府兩大外交政策成就之一（還有一個是伊朗核協議），並可能成爲他最大的政治遺產之一。遺憾的是，簽署協議只是第一步——奧巴馬在推動美國國會通過TPP時將面臨巨大挑戰。
Major benefits
主要益處
Bringing together 12 countries in Asia and Latin America the deal focuses on tariff reductions in some extremely sensitive areas for many of the member states, such as automobiles and agriculture, as well as addressing a number of other trade issues ranging from wildlife conservation to intellectual property issues in the pharmaceutical arena. According to the Peterson Institute in Washington, DC, by 2025 the TPP could result in annual benefits (opens in new window) of $295 billion globally.
該協議將亞洲和拉美的12個國家聯繫在一起，致力於在許多成員國極爲敏感的一些領域（比如汽車和農業）降低關稅，並解決其他衆多貿易事項（從野生動物保護到製藥行業的知識產權）。華盛頓的彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)表示，到2025年，TPP每年可能給全球帶來2950億美元的益處。
But the economic benefits are only one upside of the deal. While it is by no means assured, there could also be a significant geostrategic impact. The TPP was not the only Asian trade agreement of choice. China, for example, had been supporting an alternative Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. But the 12 TPP participants – the US, Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam – sent a clear message regarding the kind of standards and rules they believe are best placed to provide the greatest benefit to their populations – from greater transparency and anticorruption to more free and open markets.
但經濟效益只是該協定的積極方面之一。儘管還不是板上釘釘，但它也有望帶來巨大的地緣政治影響。TPP並非唯一可選的亞洲貿易協定。例如，中國此前支持替代的“區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定”(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)。但美國、澳大利亞、文萊、加拿大、智利、日本、馬來西亞、墨西哥、新西蘭、祕魯、新加坡和越南這12個TPP成員國在哪些標準和規則（從提高透明度和反腐，到更爲自由和開放的市場）最有利於爲本國人民帶來最大福祉的問題上，發出了明確信號。
Western leadership
西方領導地位
The TPP now sets the bar. If successful, in time other states will hopefully join including, most significantly, India, China and South Korea. But this will take time and the TPP has to prove itself first. Prospective member states will have to make extremely tough political choices in order to join and they and their populations will need to see meaningful tangible benefits first. But the door has been left open and if the TPP turns out to realize some of its potential, others could come knocking on the door.
TPP現在樹立了標杆。如果獲得成功的話，其他國家將有望加入，最重要的將是印度、中國和韓國。但這將需要時間，TPP還必須首先證明自己。爲了加入TPP，那些準成員國將不得不做出極爲艱難的政治選擇，它們和它們的人民將需要首先看到實實在在的重大好處。但門已經打開，只要TPP實現其部分潛力，其他國家就會來敲門。
Despite the rhetoric from some, the deal is not about excluding China. There are some who hope, some day, to see it join. But, at the same time, it could facilitate a diversification by many Asian states away from their current China-dependence (excepting Brunei, China is the number one importer for all the Asian TPP states and in the top three for their exports).
儘管某些人發表種種言論，但TPP並不是要將中國排除在外。有人希望有一天中國會加入。但與此同時，TPP可能有助於許多亞洲國家貿易多元化，擺脫當前依賴中國的局面（除了文萊以外，中國是所有TPP亞洲成員國的第一大進口來源，同時中國還躋身於這些國家的三大出口目的地之列）。
The deal also helps some leaders, most notably Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, to take some necessary, but politically difficult, domestic steps. Abe’s ‘three arrows’ include much-needed economic structural reform – the TPP will assist with this, providing an external impetus and a spoonful of sugar to go along with the tough medicine.
該協定也有助於一些領導人（尤其是日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)）在國內採取一些必要的、但在政治上棘手的舉措。安倍的“三支箭”包括亟需的經濟結構改革——TPP將會協助這種改革，提供外部激勵和一些切實的好處，使良藥不那麼苦口。
Finally, the deal is a small sign that Western (broadly defined) economic leadership has not disappeared entirely. While it has been clear for some time that the Bretton Woods institutions set up following the Second World War are no longer fit for purpose, little has been done to update them. The G20, set up following the 2008 recession, served its purpose for a while. The ability of 12 nations to come together on TPP is perhaps a sign that new rules and agreements in support of long-standing norms are still possible.
最後，該協定是一個小小的跡象，表明（廣義的）西方經濟領導地位並未完全消失。儘管一段時間以來顯而易見的是，二戰後設立的佈雷頓森林體系不再合乎需要，但各方並未採取什麼行動更新這一體系。在2008年經濟衰退之後成立的20國集團(G20)一度發揮了其應有的作用。12個國家能夠在TPP的框架下團結起來或許表明，仍有可能制定新的支持長期規範的規則和協定。
Close call
勝負難料
This is not to say that all elements of the deal are positive. As always there are winners and losers. In the US, many interest groups from tobacco companies to pharmaceuticals to unions are already pushing back. The standards or protections are, for many, not sufficient. And while more jobs might be created through trade, some people will lose theirs.
這並不是說，該協議的所有元素都是積極的。和往常一樣，總有贏家和輸家。在美國，從菸草公司到製藥企業和工會等許多利益集團已經在表示反對。對許多人來說，標準或保護機制還不夠到位。同時，儘管通過貿易可能創造更多的就業崗位，但一些人將會失業。
It is these groups that will make the passing of this deal in the United States (and elsewhere) so tough. Many legislatures will need to vote on this, including in the US. Congress will have 90 days to consider it (including 60 in which the text is public). This is going to move the Congressional debate well into 2016, an election year.
正是這些利益集團將會加大推動該協定在美國（和其他地方）獲得通過的難度。包括美國在內的許多立法機關將需要就此舉行投票。國會將有90天的時間進行考慮（包括公開協議文本後的60天時間），這將讓國會辯論延伸至2016選舉年。
And this is where President Obama has a major challenge on his hands. Typically, free trade is something that the Republican Party can get behind. But, this close to an election, it will be very tough for any Republican to give President Obama such a big win. One would hope that the Democrats would support their president on something so important. But this is very sensitive issue for Democrats, who tend to reject trade bills as not providing sufficient protection for American labour. And as Hillary Clinton and others go out to court the Democratic vote in Middle America, they are going to be watched very closely for how they respond to this agreement.
這是奧巴馬面臨的重大挑戰。共和黨通常會支持自由貿易。但隨着選舉臨近，任何共和黨人都很難讓奧巴馬獲得如此重大的勝利。人們會希望，民主黨人將在如此重要的事情上支持他們的總統。但對民主黨來說，這是非常敏感的問題，該黨往往以未能爲美國勞工提供足夠保護爲由，反對貿易法案。在希拉裏克林頓(Hillary Clinton)和其他人到美國中部爭取民主黨選票之際，人們將會密切關注他們如何迴應該協定。（據後來的報道，希拉里已經表示反對TPP。）
This is going to be a very close call. It would be controversial at any time, but right now the sensitivities are heightened. On the other hand, approving this deal is vital to ensure the longevity of the current rules and standards which favour the West. And it is necessary to show that the West can continue to be effective. It is paramount that the TPP pass.
這種局面將勝負難料。TPP在任何時候都會引發爭議，但現在愈顯敏感。另一方面，批准該協定對確保當前有利於西方的規則和標準長期存續非常關鍵。同時有必要表明西方可以繼續有所作爲。推動TPP獲得通過是至關重要的。
