中國債券再爆違約 突顯信貸風險

A fertiliser producer in north China will default on bond payments on Thursday, the latest casualty of a slowing economy and rampant overcapacity in commodity sectors including basic chemicals.

中國北方一家化肥生產商本週四到期的債券償付發生違約，成爲經濟放緩和大宗商品行業（包括基礎化學品）嚴重產能過剩的最新傷亡者。

Defaults have contributed to falling Chinese bond prices in recent weeks, as well as a widening of the spread between safe government bonds and low-rated corporate notes. Traders said that as the implicit guarantee gradually fades, investors were paying more attention to corporate fundamentals.

近幾周，違約加劇了中國債券價格下跌，促使安全的政府債券和評級較低的公司票據之間的息差擴大。交易員們表示，隨着隱性擔保逐漸失效，投資者更加關注企業基本面。

“Problems at Nailun were well known, so this is no surprise. But the overall trend is forcing the market to rethink their assumptions,” said a bond trader at a small bank in Shanghai.

“奈倫的問題是衆所周知的，所以這一事態並不令人意外。但總的趨勢正迫使市場反思其假設，”上海某家小銀行的一名債券交易員表示。

Inner Mongolia Nailun Group was unable to meet interest and early redemption payments due on Thursday because of “operating difficulties”, the company said in a Shanghai Stock Exchange filing dated Wednesday. It was the 12th Chinese company to default on a domestic bond so far this year, compared with 19 for all of 2015, according to Wind Information.

內蒙古奈倫集團(Inner Mongolia Nailun Group)在週三提交給上海證交所的一份公告中表示，該公司無法籌足資金償付週四應付的利息及回售款項，原因是“公司經營困難”。萬得資訊(Wind Information)的數據顯示，這是今年以來第12家在國內債券上違約的中國公司，而2015年全年有19家公司違約。

China’s overall debt hit a record high of Rmb163tn ($25tn), or 237 per cent of GDP, at the end of March, according to Financial Times calculations based on official data. Growth slipped to 6.7 per cent in the first quarter, down from 6.9 per cent in 2015.

英國《金融時報》根據官方數據進行的計算顯示，中國的總債務在3月底觸及163萬億元人民幣（合25萬億美元）的創紀錄高位，相當於GDP的237%。同時首季經濟增長下滑至6.7%，低於2015年的6.9%。

Nailun Group sold Rmb800m ($123m) in seven-year bonds in 2011 that carried an option for investors to redeem the notes at the end of the fifth year, which is Thursday. More than Rmb700m worth of bonds were submitted for redemption, according to Thomson Reuters data. An interest payment is due the same day.

奈倫集團在2011年發售8億元人民幣（合1.23億美元）的7年期債券，投資者在第五年末（也就是本週四）有回售選擇權。根據湯森路透(Thomson Reuters)的數據，價值超過7億元人民幣的債券的持有人選擇回售。同日還有一筆利息應付。

Defaults were once unheard of in China’s domestic bond market, where most issuers are state-owned enterprises and investors widely perceived all publicly issued debt as carrying an implicit government guarantee. Privately owned Chaori Solar became the first domestic default in March 2014, and last April power-equipment maker Baoding Tianwei Group became the first SOE to default. Since then, several other state groups have also missed bond payments.

違約在中國國內債券市場曾經是聞所未聞的，該市場的多數發行人是國有企業，投資者普遍認爲所有公開發行的債務都帶有隱性的政府擔保。私有的超日太陽能(Chaori Solar)在2014年3月成爲中國國內首家違約發行人，去年4月電力設備製造商保定天威集團(Baoding Tianwei Group)成爲首家違約的中國國有企業。自那以來，還有數家國有集團也發生了債券違約。

While some defaulting issuers eventually receive government bailouts, China’s cash-strapped local governments have become less willing to rescue failing companies. Analysts say the relatively muted impact of recent defaults have also demonstrated to officials that individual incidents are unlikely to trigger systemic risk.

雖然一些違約的發行人最終獲得政府救助，但資金緊張的中國地方政府已變得不那麼願意解救失敗的公司。分析師們表示，近期違約的相對溫和的影響也讓官員們看到，個別事件不太可能引發系統性風險。

Analysts expect further defaults this year as credit quality worsens. Rating agencies have issued 49 downgrades of domestic bonds so far this year, compared with 126 in 2010, according to Wind data that include multiple downgrades of the same bond.

分析師們預計，隨着信貸質量惡化，今年還將發生更多違約。萬得資訊的數據顯示，今年迄今，評級機構已對國內債券作出49次評級下調，而2010年全年有126次評級下調（這些數字包括同一債券的多次下調）。

Nailun said it was working to raise funds to repay investors and that it would seek to restructure the debt. The company will announce a bondholders’ meeting within five days, it said.

奈倫表示，正在努力籌集資金償還投資者，同時該集團將尋求重組債務。該公司稱，將在五天內發佈召開債券持有人會議的通知。