倫敦金融城未來的三種命運
As a worker in the City of London for 20 years — first in a lowly role at the Bank of England, then in a mid-ranking position at the now defunct Association for Payment Services — Theresa May would not have imagined her current quandary.
特里薩•梅(Theresa May)曾在倫敦金融城(the City of London)工作過二十年——最初爲英格蘭銀行(Bank of England)的基層職員，之後在現已解散的支付清算服務協會(Association for Payment Services)擔任中層職位——她或許從未想到過有一天自己會面臨目前的困難局面。
Now prime minister, Mrs May faces the daunting prospect of negotiating Britain’s divorce from the EU while at the same time protecting the country’s key interests.
作爲英國的新一任首相，梅肩負着令人生畏的艱鉅使命：進行英國脫離歐盟的談判，在此過程中保護英國的核心利益。
Close to the top of that list is the City’s role as a financial services hub and an anchor for the UK’s biggest industry, worth as much as 10 per cent of gross domestic product. Depending on how successful Mrs May is, the City could face three different futures.
其中最重要的一個方面，是倫敦金融城作爲金融服務中心以及英國第一大產業的支柱的地位——金融服務業在英國國內生產總值(GDP)中所佔比重高達10%。倫敦金融城可能面臨三種不同的未來圖景，而這取決於梅的脫歐談判有多成功。
Souped-up Singapore
未來圖景一：加強版的新加坡
Brexit could offer an opportunity to maximise London as a less regulated offshore centre for renminbi trading, private banking or fintech, making use of the UK’s timezone advantage between Shanghai and New York.
英國脫歐或許能夠打開機遇窗口，最大程度強化倫敦作爲監管相對寬鬆的離岸金融中心的地位，發展人民幣交易、私人銀行或者金融科技等領域的業務，充分利用倫敦處在上海和紐約之間的時區優勢。
If London loses its role as a gateway to European markets, then the City could seek to emulate places such as Singapore — which is able to attract business from Asia’s powerhouses through light touch regulation and a favourable tax regime. Despite its small size, the city state is ranked by Z/Yen, a consultancy, as the world’s leading financial centre behind London and New York.
如果倫敦失去了歐洲市場門戶的地位，那麼倫敦金融城或可嘗試模仿新加坡等地區的模式——新加坡憑藉柔性監管以及優惠的稅收制度得以從亞洲強國吸引業務。雖然規模較小，這個一城之國仍被諮詢機構Z/Yen評爲全球主要金融中心之一，位列倫敦和紐約之後。
The UK could turn into a sort of souped-up Singapore “if the offshore part picks up the slack left by the departure of some European businesses,” said a managing director in government affairs at a large bank.
英國可以轉型爲某種加強版的新加坡，“如果離岸業務能夠添補某些歐洲業務撤離英國所留下的空白的話，”一家大型銀行負責政府事務的常務董事表示。
Britain already has a growing presence as a base for offshore renminbi trading and in April unseated Singapore as the second-largest clearing centre after Hong Kong for the currency.
英國作爲離岸人民幣交易中心的地位不斷增強，今年4月還取代了新加坡，成爲排在香港之後的第二大人民幣清算中心。
The Swiss bankers’ association has proposed an “F4” alliance between Switzerland, London, Hong Kong and Singapore to pool ideas and resources to co-ordinate positions on global financial regulation and access to the EU market.
瑞士銀行家協會建議，瑞士、倫敦、香港和新加坡可以組成“F4”聯盟，以匯聚創意和資源，協調聯盟各方在全球金融監管以及歐盟市場準入方面的立場。
Once out of the EU, the City could potentially backtrack on some of the bloc’s regulations that it most dislikes, such as curbs on bankers bonuses. But detractors point out that deregulating while also remaining “equivalent” so as to retain single market access would be tricky.
一旦脫離了歐盟，倫敦金融城或許可以停止執行自己最不喜歡的部分歐盟監管法規，例如對銀行家獎金的限制。但批評者們指出，在放鬆監管的同時維持使英國能夠繼續進入歐盟單一市場的“同等監管標準”將會頗爲棘手。
Damian Kimmelman, co-founder and chief executive of tech company DueDil, said Brexit provides a great opportunity to galvanise London’s fintech industry to redesign its entire infrastructure using technologies such as blockchain and confirm the UK “as the fintech centre of the world”.
科技公司DueDil的聯合創始人及首席執行官達米安•基梅爾曼(Damian Kimmelman)表示，英國脫歐爲推動倫敦金融科技行業的發展提供了巨大機遇，這個行業可以藉此契機運用區塊鏈等技術重新設計整個基礎架構，以強化英國作爲“世界金融科技中心”的地位。
Drastic downscaling
未來圖景二：產業急劇萎縮
The biggest blow to the City would be the loss of the crucial “passports” banks and other financial institutions use to sell services and raise funds in other EU markets from London.
倫敦金融城可能遭遇的最大打擊是，銀行以及其他金融機構可能會失去在倫敦向其他歐盟市場提供服務以及募集資金所需的關鍵“通行證”。
Cities such as Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin are already rolling out the red carpet for banks, and further afield Singapore New York and Dubai could also go in for the kill.
巴黎、法蘭克福、都柏林等城市都已經鋪好了紅毯，準備迎接從倫敦遷來的銀行，距離更遠的新加坡、紐約、迪拜等城市也可能參與角逐。
A Treasury analysis this year suggested up to 285,000 financial sector jobs could be at risk after a Leave vote. The worry is that when banks leave London, the professional services firms who work with them would follow over time.
英國財政部今年的一項分析顯示，脫歐公投最多可能導致英國金融行業損失28.5萬個就業崗位。令人擔憂的是，如果銀行撤出倫敦，與銀行合作的專業服務公司可能也會逐漸跟隨銀行離開。
This would be compounded by a dearth of foreign direct investment and a struggling UK economy.
這種狀況可能會因外國直接投資的匱乏以及英國經濟形勢的艱難而加劇。
“It is bleak,” said one bank boss: “We are going into recession, no question about it. Five years from now the City might find a way to grow again but it will be a long way behind where it could have been.”
一位銀行高管表示：“前景暗淡，我們將陷入衰退，這是毫無疑問的。五年後倫敦金融城或許會找到一條復興之路，但將遠遠不如本來可以達到的水平。”
A campaign on immigration — one of the most sensitive issues in last month’s EU referendum — could also make the position of the City’s foreign workers vulnerable. Nearly 11 per cent of the City’s 360,000 workers come from elsewhere in the EU, according to the latest census.
有關移民的政治運動——移民是6月脫歐公投中最爲敏感的話題之一——可能導致倫敦金融城中外國員工的地位更弱。最新人口調查顯示，在倫敦金融城的36萬名員工中，有近11%來自歐盟其他成員國。
And London’s location as home to the world’s principal place for trading the euro — a $2tn a day market — may also come under further pressure after previous EU attempts to shift more of the business to the eurozone.
倫敦作爲全球歐元交易主要市場所在地的地位——該市場目前每日交易規模高達2萬億美元——可能會因爲之前歐盟將更多此類業務轉移至歐元區的嘗試而受到更大的壓力。
Other countries are closely watching the City’s ties to the EU — notably China, whose banks recently picked London as their European financial base of choice.
其他國家也在密切關注倫敦金融城與歐盟的關係，特別是中國，中資銀行不久前選擇了倫敦作爲他們在歐洲開展金融業務的大本營。
Mark Boleat, policy chairman at the City of London Corporation, said Brexit was “not helpful to our relations with China”.
倫敦金融城政策與資源委員會主席包墨凱(Mark Boleat)表示，英國脫歐“對於我們與中國的關係沒有幫助”。
Muted London
未來圖景三：倫敦重要性減弱
Under a scenario where the UK is able to fudge some sort of access to the single market, London could carry on almost as before.
在英國能夠創造出進入歐盟單一市場的某種路徑的情況下，倫敦可以保持幾乎和以前一樣的狀態。
The key would be EU rules known as Mifid 2, which allow other nations with “equivalent” regulatory standards to operate right across the single market in sectors such as trading.
其中的關鍵在於“歐盟金融工具市場法規II”(Mifid 2)，該規則允許其他具有“同等”監管標準的國家在交易等領域進入歐盟全境開展業務。
Banks would retain a large core presence in London. The question would be where they put new hires, rather than where they move existing employees.
銀行將把大量核心業務繼續留在倫敦。問題將變成銀行把招募新員工的名額放在哪裏，而不是將現有的員工遷移到哪裏。
Lord Levene, who chairs Tikehau, a French investment boutique that recently relocated to London, said: “People want to live and work in London. What leaves will be pretty much on the margins.”
法國精品投行Tikehau的董事會主席列文勳爵(Lord Levene)表示：“人們希望在倫敦工作和生活。其餘的大抵無關緊要。”Tikehau不久前遷至倫敦。
Similarly, asset managers may well keep their headquarters in London. But many already have Luxembourg and Dublin domiciled funds and could shift more business to those centres and locate euro-denominated business inside the EU.
同樣，資產管理公司很可能也會將總部繼續留在倫敦。但其中很多已經擁有了設在盧森堡以及都柏林的基金，有能力將更多的業務轉移至這些金融中心，並將以歐元計值的業務安排在歐盟境內。
Euro trading could also stay in London. Roger Liddell, the former chief executive of rnet, said: “If you start to divide up portfolios by currency you create a huge amount of inefficiency and a greater degree of risk.”
歐元交易業務也可以繼續留在倫敦。倫敦清算所(rnet)前首席執行官羅傑•裏德爾(Roger Liddell)表示：“如果將資產組合按照幣種分割開來，將會導致大量的低效率操作以及更大的風險。”
Karen Briggs, head of Brexit at professional services firm KPMG, added: “There are a number of aspects that take us away from the doomsday post-Brexit scenario: the UK’s infrastructure, its trusted legal system and its strong resource and talent pool . . . It is still attractive to work in London and the UK.”
專業金融服務公司畢馬威(KPMG)負責英國脫歐業務的主管凱倫•布里格斯(Karen Briggs)補充稱：“有多個方面的因素使我們可以遠離英國脫歐以後的末日圖景：英國的基礎設施、備受信賴的司法系統以及強大的資源和人才儲備……在倫敦和在英國工作仍然具有很強的吸引力。”
