中國擴大人民幣浮動幅度獲各方好評
China’s loosening control of renminbi welcomed
China’s decision to loosen some of its currency controls, permitting greater volatility in daily trade from Monday, has been welcomed as an important step towards allowing the renminbi to float freely.
中國決定放鬆一部分匯率管制，從週一起擴大人民幣匯率日浮動幅度。此舉受到各方歡迎，被視爲邁向最終允許人民幣匯率自由浮動的重要一步。From this week, the renminbi will be allowed to rise or fall 1 per cent each day from the daily official rate against the US dollar, double its previous trading range of 0.5 per cent.
從本週起，人民幣兌美元交易價相對於當日官方中間價的日浮動幅度由0.5%擴大至1%。
Analysts still expect the central bank to keep the exchange rate stable in the coming months as a buffer against global economic uncertainty, but the band widening lays the groundwork for a future in which market forces, not the government, shape its value.
分析師們預計，中國央行在未來幾個月內仍將保持人民幣匯率穩定，作爲針對全球經濟不確定性的緩衝，但擴大浮動幅度之舉將爲未來由市場力量（而非政府）決定匯率打下基礎。Beijing hopes one day to transform the renminbi into a currency that will vie for a place alongside the dollar and the euro on the global stage. Widening the band brings it closer to that goal, although other, and riskier, reforms to open its capital account are needed first.
北京方面希望有朝一日實現人民幣國際化，使其在全球舞臺上與美元和歐元分庭抗禮。擴大浮動幅度意味着中國向這個目標走近了一步，儘管中國仍需推行風險較高的其他改革、放開資本賬戶。This was an “important step by the People’s Bank of China to increase the flexibility of their currency”, said Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund.
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)總裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)表示，此舉是“中國央行提高人民幣匯率彈性的一個重要步驟”。The US Treasury described the move as “positive for China, the United States, and the global economy” if implemented properly, but added that “further progress is needed”.
美國財政部稱，此舉如果實施得當的話，將“有利於中國、美國乃至全球經濟”，但補充稱“有必要取得進一步的進展”。Until now, the mechanics of the Chinese exchange rate have been relatively simple. The central bank has used a trading band since 2005 to guide the renminbi in a “crawling peg” against the dollar. It sets the midpoint of the range in the morning before the market opens, then intervenes throughout the day to keep the currency within the desired bounds.
迄今中國匯率形成機制一直相對簡單。中國央行自2005年起採用交易區間來引導人民幣匯率“爬行盯住”美元。央行在每日早上市場開盤前設定匯率中間價，然後在全天不時干預匯市，以使匯率保持在規定的浮動幅度內。Whatever the daily ups and downs, the renminbi has steadily risen against the dollar, appreciating 5-7 per cent a year, apart from a pause during the global financial crisis.
儘管每日有漲有跌，但近年來人民幣相對美元穩步走高（年升值幅度達5%至7%），只是在全球金融危機期間暫停了一段時間。With the band widening, the Chinese currency should become harder to predict. But Beijing is not about to relinquish control of the renminbi. Rather, it wants to broaden what it describes as the “the exchange rate formation mechanism”.
擴大浮動幅度後，人民幣匯率應當變得更難預測。但北京方面並不會很快放棄控制匯率。相反，它希望拓寬其所稱的“匯率形成機制”。It wants to use a basket of the currencies of its biggest trading partners – the US dollar, the euro and the yen – as an anchor for the renminbi. In practice, it has relied most on the dollar.
它希望參考一籃子主要貿易伙伴的貨幣（美元、歐元和日元等）來調節人民幣匯率。在實踐中，人民幣匯率對美元依賴程度最大。The wider band will make the shift to a flexible basket-based exchange rate feasible by allowing greater “two-way volatility” against the dollar, said Lu Ting, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
美國銀行-美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)經濟學家陸挺表示，擴大浮動幅度將允許人民幣兌美元匯率出現更大的“雙向波動”，使人民幣轉向基於籃子貨幣的彈性匯率具有可行性。
