別了,歐洲 Goodbye Europe

A British exit from the European Union looks increasingly possible. It would be a reckless gamble

英國退出歐盟的可能性看上去越來越大。這可能是一場不計後果的賭博。

“BRITAIN does not dream of some cosy, isolated existence on the fringes of the European Community,” asserted Margaret Thatcher in 1988. Now, increasingly, it does. Opinion polls show that most Britons are in favour of leaving the European Union. Baroness Thatcher's Conservative Party, which took Britain into Europe four decades ago, is divided between those who long for an arm's-length relationship and those who want to walk out. The second camp is swelling.

瑪格麗特·撒切爾在1988年宣稱：“英國並不夢想着成爲歐共體邊緣多少有點愜意和孤立的國家。”如今，英國每天都在做着這樣的夢。民調顯示，大多數英國人贊成脫離歐洲聯盟。40年前，撒切爾女男爵的保守黨將英國帶進歐盟，如今它已分裂成兩派。一派希望同歐盟保持正常的關係，另一派希望走出歐洲大陸，此派的陣營正在壯大。

Even the fiercest British critics of the EU are astonished by the speed at which things are moving. Parliamentary rebellions over Europe are becoming easier and easier to organise. Euroscepticism is hardening in the Conservative Party, in much the same way as social conservatism has gone from being a powerful current in America's Republican Party to an intolerant orthodoxy. The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), which wants to leave the EU, has abruptly moved from the political margins to the mainstream. A referendum on Britain's membership of the EU now seems a matter of timing.

就連對歐盟持最不滿意態度的英國輿論也對事態的發展速度感到驚訝。組織針對歐洲大陸的議會起義變得越來越容易。就像社會保守主義從美國共和黨內的主流變成狹隘的正統觀念一樣，保守黨內的歐洲懷疑主義也在強硬起來。支持脫歐的英國獨立黨(UKIP)在一夜之間從政治的邊緣變成主流。如今，對英國的歐盟成員資格進行全民公投似乎成爲迫在眉睫的事情。

Continental Europeans are surprised too—and annoyed. They are bewildered that the British should be talking of leaving a club that many believe has shifted decisively in a free-trading, Anglo-Saxon direction in the past two decades. They also resent the way Britain seems to be using the threat of an exit as a bargaining tool, especially at a time when the euro is in crisis. As they see it, Britain wants to carve out a privileged place for itself in the European club, where it can enjoy free trade without any of the other membership rules. In Berlin and Rome, political leaders argue that Britain needs to make up its mind once and for all: does it want to be in or out?

歐洲大陸也感到吃驚——和惱怒。讓他們困惑的是，在許多人看來歐盟在過去20年間毅然決然地轉向自由貿易和盎格魯-撒克遜模式，而英國竟然在探討離開這個俱樂部的話題。英國人似乎正在把脫歐的威脅當做是談判的砝碼來，特別是在歐元處於危機之時。在他們看來，英國想要爲自己在歐洲俱樂部內攫取一個特權地位，她可以在不受其他成員國約束的情況下享受自由貿易。柏林和羅馬的領導人認爲，英國需要做出一勞永逸的決定：到底是想留還是想走？

Oops!

天哪！

For an economically liberal newspaper that has been sceptical of much that Brussels does, a British exit would be a double tragedy. Britons would suffer far more than they currently realise, as we explain in detail in our briefing this week (see article). Europe would be damaged too. Britain has stood for free trade and low regulation, so without it the union would be more lethargic and left ever further behind by America and the emerging world.

對於一家對布魯塞爾的大多數行爲持懷疑態度的經濟自由派報紙來說，英國的退出可能是一個雙重悲劇。如同本週精粹欄目所詳細描述的那樣，英國人可能要承受的考驗將比他們現在意識到的要多得多。歐洲也會遭遇打擊。英國一直是自由貿易和放鬆監管的表率，失去她的歐盟會更加了無生氣，並且會被美國和新興國家落的更遠。

The speediest way for Britain to tumble out would be an “In or Out” referendum called by a prime minister frightened by rising anti-Europe feeling in Parliament and the country as a whole. David Cameron, Britain's prime minister, has tried to resist this, hinting instead that Britons would be given a choice between the status quo and a more detached relationship. But few are satisfied with that. Conservative MPs look over their right shoulders at UKIP and clamour for a sharper choice.

英國倉促做出決定的最快方式是由首相下令進行一次“留還是走”的全民公決，而首相已經被議會和國內反歐情緒的高漲搞得六神無主。英國首相戴維•卡梅倫一直在努力抵制公民公決。他暗示說，英國人反而應當在現狀和更超然的關係之間進行選擇。但是幾乎無人對此感到滿意。保守黨議員向獨立黨看齊，並且爲更明確的選擇而四處呼籲。

Another route out involves a diplomatic slip. The cleverer Eurosceptics, including Mr Cameron, do not want Britain to leave; they just want to bring back some powers from Brussels. But their efforts to do so are making things worse. Last year almost all other EU members lined up against Mr Cameron, who was trying to block a fiscal compact to help resolve the euro crisis. The British now hope that tightening euro-zone integration provides a chance for Mr Cameron to negotiate looser ties. They could be wrong. Other countries are tiring of British demands. Many, including Germany, would prefer to avoid a British exit, but they are not so desperate to keep Mr Cameron in that they are prepared to concede much in the way of social and labour-market regulation. And some, such as France, might positively welcome the departure of the club's most awkward member. Bad-tempered negotiations would increase the likelihood of an “out” vote in a British referendum.

另一條出走的道路牽扯到外交方面的一些麻煩。包括卡梅倫在內的較明智的歐洲懷疑派不準備讓英國脫離歐盟；他們只是想從布魯塞爾討回一些權力。但是，他們爲此所做的努力正在使事情變得更糟糕。去年，除英國之外的幾乎所有歐盟成員國都聯合起來反對卡梅倫，這位英國首相當時試圖阻止一項有助於解決歐元危機的財政契約獲得通過。如今，英國希望對歐元區一體化的強化能爲卡梅倫提供一個通過談判解除合作的機會。他們可能打錯了算盤。其他國家對英國的要求感到厭倦。包括德國在內的多個國家傾向於防止英國脫歐，但是他們還沒有絕望到讓卡梅倫堅持其對社會和勞動力市場的監管方式，儘管他們準備做出很大讓步。同時，包括法國在內的一些國家可能對俱樂部中最尷尬成員的離去表示明確地歡迎。惡劣心情下的談判可能會增加英國全民公決中投“離開”票的可能性。

Little sovereignty, large cost

用不菲的代價換取少量的主權

And what if Britain left? It could grab a few benefits quickly. The nation would save about £8 billion ($13 billion) a year in net budget contributions. Freed of the common agricultural policy, its food could become cheaper. If it pulled out of the single market, it could do away with annoying labour directives. The City would not have to worry so much about a financial-transaction tax and creeping European finance rules.

那麼，英國脫歐影響幾何呢？眼前的好處有以下幾個：國家每年能節省8億英鎊（13億美元）的淨預算分攤額。擺脫歐洲共同農業政策後，英國的食品會更加便宜。如果脫離單一市場的話，英國能擺脫惱人的勞工指令。倫敦金融城不必爲繁重的金融交易稅而擔憂，同時還可以無視歐洲的金融法規。

Yet these gains would be greatly outweighed by the costs of a British exit, which would dent trade with a market that accounts for half of Britain's exports. The carmakers that use Britain as their European operations base would gradually drift away, along with large parts of the financial-services industry. Britain would have to renegotiate dozens of bilateral trade deals from a much weaker position than it enjoyed as a member of the EU. It would cut a greatly diminished figure on the world stage. It would have bought some sovereignty, but at an extraordinary cost to Britain—and its partners.

不過，同英國脫歐的代價相比，這些好處簡直是九牛一毛。受英國脫歐所影響的交易佔英國出口量的一半。把英國當做其歐洲業務基地的汽車廠商，連同大部分金融服務產業在內會逐步撤離。同保持歐盟成員國相比，英國不得不站在一個較弱的地位重新進行一連串的雙邊貿易談判。這會極大地消弱英國在世界舞臺上的形象。這將使英國——及其夥伴以極高的代價換取一部分國家主權。

Among those who want out, there is talk of finding an accommodation by which Britain would leave the EU but still trade freely with it (the equivalent of eating in a restaurant but not paying the cover charge). Some Eurosceptics suggest Britain could join Norway in the European Economic Area. That would leave it bound by EU regulations that it would be almost powerless to shape—a situation many Britons, especially Eurosceptics, would find intolerable. Others hope Britain might get the same deal as Switzerland, which is a little further removed but gets good access to the single market. It wouldn't: the EU already regrets giving Switzerland the Swiss option, so it is scarcely likely to give bigger, more troublesome Britain the same deal. Again, disappointment and a referendum beckon.

想要脫歐的人們正在探討一種可以讓英國在脫歐的同時仍然可以自由地同其進行貿易的通融辦法（這相當於在飯店中吃飯卻不交服務費）。一些歐洲懷疑派人士提議，英國可以像挪威一樣加入歐洲經濟區，這將使英國處於幾乎無力形成的歐盟監管的控制之下——這是一種多數英國人，尤其是歐洲懷疑人士所無法容忍的情況。有人希望英國能夠達成類似於瑞士的那種協議，雖然要爲此做出更多的讓步，但能夠順利地進入單一市場。不過，這是不可能實現的：歐盟早已爲同意建立瑞士期權交易所而後悔不已，因此幾乎不可能同面積更大並且會帶來更多麻煩的英國達成類似協議。

Can anything be done to prevent this slow-motion disaster? Quite possibly, it can. Oddly, Mr Cameron should try emulating Baroness Thatcher. She is remembered today as a handbag-swinger who commanded Brussels to retreat, but she also knew how to make common cause with other European leaders. Unfortunately, the quality of British EU diplomacy has deteriorated in recent years. Obsessed with repatriating powers and with appearing tough to their domestic audience, Britain's current leaders seem to have forgotten the art of dealmaking. Mr Cameron has a good case to make, especially when he argues for extending the single market to promote growth. He also has powerful sympathisers in Europe, including Germany's Angela Merkel, but they seldom become useful allies because Britain is seen as a blackmailing zealot.

有什麼辦法可以阻止這種慢鏡頭式的災難嗎？當然有。首先，卡梅倫應當效仿撒切爾女男爵。雖說她留在當今人們記憶中的形象是一位揮舞着手提包命令布魯塞爾撤退的人，但是她還了解同其他歐洲領導人進行合作的方式。不幸的是，英國對歐盟外交的質量近些年來一直在下滑。由於忙於收回權力並且對國內民衆顯得更加強硬，當前的英國領導人似乎已經忘記了做交易的技巧。卡梅倫具有做交易的有力條件，特別是當他贊成擴大單一市場以提高增長的時候。雖說他在歐洲還擁有不少有影響力的同情者，其中就包括德國總理默克爾；但是，由於英國被視爲一個討價還價的狂熱分子，他們基本不可能成爲可以利用的盟友。

The other priority should be educating Britons about what exactly a British exit would really involve. Big business and the City, whose interests lie solidly inside the EU, need to take a stand. The Labour Party, which has been playing a cynical and dangerous game, also needs to change its line. In October Labour MPs voted with anti-European Tories over the EU budget, handing the government its first major defeat. By strengthening those who want to leave Europe, Labour is making it more likely that a Conservative government will have to promise an in-or-out referendum. If it does, Labour may be bounced into promising the same.

另一個首先要考慮的事情應該是，讓英國人真正對脫歐所涉及的詳細內容有清楚的瞭解。其利益與留在歐盟密切相關的金融產業和金融城必須做出表態。一直在玩弄憤世嫉俗和危險把戲的工黨也必須改變立場。今年10月，工黨議員聯合保守黨中的反歐洲議員，投票反對歐盟預算案，讓政府第一次遭到嚴重打擊。通過強化同脫歐議員的聯繫，工黨令保守黨政府不得不保證進行一次“留還是走”的全民公決變得更加可能。如果真是這樣的話，工黨可能會被迫做出同樣的保證。

Most of the heavy lifting, at home as well as in Brussels, will have to be done by Mr Cameron and his chancellor, George Osborne. They need to remind Britons of the victories that have been won within the EU and of the dangers of falling out of it. And above all, they need to rediscover the virtues of muddling along and keeping options open. The referendum is a good example. Rushing to hold a simple in-or-out vote sounds clear and decisive. But stalling for time is wiser. The government should resist demands for a vote at least until it becomes clear what sort of Europe Britain would be voting to remain in or leave. This sort of wait-and-see approach may feel unsatisfactory, but it is what kept Britain out of the euro.

不管是在國內還是在布魯塞爾，許多困難都在等着卡梅倫和財政大臣喬治·奧斯本去解決。他們有必要提醒英國人，即要記住已在歐盟取得的勝利，也不要忘記脫離歐盟的危險。同時，更重要的是，他們有必要重新發掘出得過且過和靈活選擇的長處。全民公決就是一個絕好的例子。單就“留還是走”進行一次倉促的投票聽起來意義非凡，但是暫時擱置纔是更明智的做法。政府至少應當對投票的要求進行抵制，直到英國對爲什麼樣的歐洲進行留還是走的投票變得清楚爲止。此類觀望手段或許無法令人滿意，但它正是讓英國遠離歐元的辦法。

Britain's position in Europe may become untenable, if the resolution of the economic crisis binds the countries of the euro zone ever closer and all other EU countries join. But that is not a certainty, and nor is Britain's steady marginalisation. Difficult and often humiliating as it may be, the best course is to stick close to Europe, and try to bend it towards Britain.

如果對經濟危機的解決將歐元區國家更加緊密地團結起來，並且讓其他歐盟國家也加入進來，那麼英國在歐洲的立場可能會站不住腳。但是，這既不是板上釘釘的事情，也不能說英國肯定會被邊緣化。這也許是困難的，也許還經常令人難堪，但最佳的選擇就是緊緊地同歐洲聯結在一起，並且努力使這種聯結有利於英國。