日系車在當代土豪遍地的中國還有希望嗎

Toyota and Honda picked a bad time to take their foot off the accelerator in China. As the global car market went into a financial crisis-induced tailspin in 2008, Chinese demand kept expanding, accounting for one-third of the industry’s total growth over the ensuing five years.

豐田(Toyota)和本田(Honda)在中國市場放緩擴張的時機很糟糕。2008年，全球汽車市場陷入由金融危機引起的直線下跌，但中國的需求仍保持增長，在隨後五年佔全球汽車業總增長的三分之一。

Last year, annual sales of passenger cars and minivans remained 9 and 14 per cent below their pre-crisis peaks in the US and western Europe respectively, and recovered to 2007 levels in Japan, according to automotive consultancy AlixPartners.

汽車諮詢公司艾睿鉑(AlixPartners)統計顯示，去年，美國和西歐乘用車和小型貨車年銷量分別比危機之前最高水平低9%和14%，日本則恢復了2007年的水平。

Meanwhile, sales in China’s market more than doubled to 18.6m, making it the world’s largest. “The downturn didn’t really happen in China,” says Bill Russo, a former US auto executive and Beijing-based industry consultant. “China’s share of the global market rose significantly in 2009 and 2010.”

與此同時，中國市場的銷量增加一倍以上，達到1860萬輛，成爲世界最大汽車市場。曾是美國汽車業高管、現在駐北京的汽車諮詢師羅威(Bill Russo)說：“中國並沒有真的發生低迷，2009年和2010年，中國佔全球市場的份額顯著上升。”

Toyota and Honda missed the party. Together with Nissan, the “big three” Japanese auto companies’ combined share of the China market crashed from more than one-quarter to just 15 per cent in the first half year on year.

豐田和本田錯過了機會。加上日產(Nissan)，這三大日本汽車公司今年上半年在中國市場的總份額從去年同期的逾25%下降到只有15%。

Toyota and Honda at least have some interesting excuses. Japanese car companies make for easy targets in China, especially at times of political tension between Asia’s two largest economies.

豐田和本田至少有一些有意思的藉口。日本汽車公司在中國很容易成爲攻擊目標，特別是在亞洲兩大經濟體之間出現政治緊張的時候。

Chinese nationalist passions boiled over in September last year, after the Japanese government purchased the disputed Senkaku Islands – known in China as the Diaoyu – from their private owner. Japanese car companies briefly halted production as angry crowds targeted their cars and dealerships.

去年9月，日本政府從私人所有者買下有爭議的尖閣諸島（Senkaku Islands，中國稱釣魚島及其附屬島嶼）之後，中國民族主義情緒高漲。憤怒的民衆將日本汽車及其經銷商作爲攻擊對象，迫使日本汽車公司暫時停產。

Some Chinese drivers cleverly presented the mob with a moral dilemma – and saved their Japanese cars – by plastering the vehicles with stickers of Chinese flags and other patriotic symbols.

一些中國司機比較明智地在車上貼了中國國旗和其他愛國主義符號的貼紙，讓那些打砸的人在道德上陷入兩難境地——籍此拯救自己的日本品牌車。

“We lost 50 per cent in sales immediately,” Carlos Ghosn, chief executive of Nissan, said as he delivered first-half results earlier this month. The carmaker is yet to regain the 7.7 per cent market share it enjoyed before the dispute.

日產首席執行官卡洛斯•戈恩(Carlos Ghosn)11月發佈上半年銷量時說：“我們的銷量很快就下降50%。”日產的市場佔有率依然沒有恢復爭端爆發之前的7.7%。

Toyota’s vehicle sales also dropped rapidly, with many customers cancelling orders and shunning showrooms. It was forced to reduce production temporarily in some plants by as much as 60 per cent.

豐田的汽車銷量也急劇下降，很多客戶取消訂單，也不再去豐田展廳。豐田被迫臨時減產，一些工廠減產60%。

Japanese auto executives admit that the severity of the incident took them by surprise, given that previous geopolitical flare-ups had not seriously affected production.

鑑於以往的地緣政治衝突並沒有嚴重影響汽車生產，日本汽車高管承認，此次事件的嚴重性讓他們意外。

“Japanese carmakers always feel that [when it comes to] doing business in China we don’t stand on the same point as western carmakers,” says one industry insider. “We always have to overcome these past political problems.”

一位業內人士說：“日本汽車製造商始終感覺，在中國做生意，我們與西方汽車製造商所處的地位不同。我們永遠需要克服過去的政治問題。”

Ivo Naumann, AlixPartners’ Shanghai-based managing director, says: “The biggest problem [with these incidents] is on the dealer side. If sales decline or your windows get smashed every three or four years because of some stupid political issue, you ask whether you should continue.”

艾睿鉑駐上海董事總經理羅曼(Ivo Naumann)說：“這些事件給經銷商帶來的問題最嚴重。如果銷量下降或者由於愚蠢的政治問題每三、四年門店被砸，那麼你就該問問要不要堅持下去了。”

A series of industrial actions in 2010 that marked the beginning of the end of China’s cheap labour advantage also primarily affected Japanese car plants in southern China. The striking auto workers drew on lingering resentment over their country’s former wartime adversary.

2010年標誌着中國廉價勞動力優勢時代進入尾聲的一系列勞工行動，也主要影響到位於中國南方的日本汽車工廠。罷工的汽車工人利用了中國人對日本侵華那段歷史的耿耿於懷。

Many analysts, however, do not accept that geopolitics has been the main reason for Toyota and Honda’s poor performance in China over recent years.

然而，很多分析師並不認爲地緣政治是豐田和本田近年在中國表現糟糕的主要原因。

They point instead to inadequate plant expansions, low levels of localisation and other strategic errors that were made before Sino-Japanese relations hit their latest low point.

他們認爲，真正的原因是工廠擴建不到位、本地化程度不夠高，以及在中日關係跌至最近的低谷之前犯下的其他戰略錯誤。

After last year’s turmoil, Toyota’s sales this September rose 45 per cent year on year, according to market research consultancy LMC Automotive, which collates data for every operator in the market, while Honda and Nissan’s China business doubled.

市場研究諮詢機構LMC Automotive統計顯示，經過去年的動盪後，豐田今年9月的銷量同比增長45%，本田和日產在中國的銷量翻番。LMC Automotive整理分析市場上每一家經營者的數據。

But all three companies’ sales over the first three quarters of 2013 remained largely flat or slightly down versus the same period last year, even as the overall market grew a robust 15 per cent.

但這三家公司2013年前三季度的銷量基本與去年同期持平或者略微下降，儘管整體市場強勁增長了15%。

“The Japanese took a negative view of the market,” says Mr Naumann. “They simply ran out of capacity. There was demand but they just couldn’t supply it.”

羅曼說：“日本企業對市場看法消極，很簡單，他們的產能不夠。需求是存在的，但他們就是無法供應。”

Toyota in particular, he adds, badly underestimated how fast the market would grow.

他補充說，豐田尤其低估了中國市場增長的速度。

Toyota enjoyed a bumper 2008 in China, attaining a 10 per cent market share and becoming the country’s second-best-selling brand, after Volkswagen.

2008年，豐田在中國取得佳績，佔市場份額的10%，成爲中國汽車市場第二大暢銷品牌，僅次於大衆(Volkswagen)。

But as the global financial crisis took hold, it froze development of a major plant in Changchun, a northeastern industrial centre, and delayed approval for capacity increases at other facilities.

但隨着全球金融危機全面爆發，豐田凍結了中國東北工業重鎮長春一家大廠的施工建設，還推遲批准其他工廠的產能擴充計劃。

The Changchun plant, originally slated to have begun manufacturing in 2010, finally opened last year with an annual capacity of 100,000 vehicles. “We never thought of [China] as an El Dorado,” one Toyota executive admits.

長春的工廠原計劃在2010年投產，結果拖到去年纔開工，年產量爲10萬輛。豐田的一位高管承認：“我們沒想到中國會成爲黃金市場。”

GM is now firmly entrenched in the number two slot.

通用汽車(GM)現在穩坐第二的位置。

Some analysts are optimistic that Toyota and Honda have learnt from their mistakes and can bounce back, although it will be a difficult task in what is now the most competitive national market in the history of the auto industry. More than 100 manufacturers are active in China including every major multinational car company.

一些分析師樂觀地認爲，豐田和本田已經吸取教訓並且能夠恢復元氣，儘管這將是一項艱鉅的任務——中國已成爲汽車業史上競爭最激烈的市場。100多家汽車製造商活躍在中國市場，包括所有大型跨國汽車公司。

“They will regain market share,” says Mr Naumann. “They are still formidable companies. They still have excellent cars.”

羅曼說：“日本企業將重獲市場份額。他們依然是令人敬畏的企業。他們依然生產一流的汽車。”

Tatsuo Yoshida, auto analyst at Barclays, also believes Japanese manufacturers are at last addressing their deficiencies in China after concerns about intellectual property protection had for years dissuaded them from developing more vehicles there. But he expects that the US will remain their key market.

巴克萊(Barclays)汽車分析師吉田龍夫(Tatsuo Yoshida)也認爲，由於擔憂知識產權難以保護，多年來日本汽車製造商不願在華研發更多汽車，但它們現在終於開始應對自己在中國的不足。但他預計美國仍將是它們的關鍵市場。