一場有意義的選舉該討論什麼

We’ve just had a nonsense midterm election. Never has more money been spent to think so little about a future so in flux. What would we have discussed if we’d had a serious election? How about the biggest challenge we’re facing today: The resilience of our workers, environment and institutions.

我們剛剛結束了一場無意義的中期選舉。關於如此莫測的未來，我們如此缺乏思考，可是花在上面的錢卻從來沒有這麼多過。如果我們有一個認真的選舉，那會討論些什麼呢？不如討論一下我們如今面臨的最大挑戰：我們的工人、環境及制度的恢復力。

Why is that the biggest challenge? Because: The world is fast. The three biggest forces on the planet — the market, Mother Nature and Moore’s Law — are all surging, really fast, at the same time. The market, i.e., globalization, is tying economies more tightly together than ever before, making our workers, investors and markets much more interdependent and exposed to global trends, without walls to protect them.

爲什麼這是最大的挑戰？因爲：世界變化很快。這個星球上最大的三種力量——市場、大自然和摩爾定律——都在同一時間風起雲涌，速度非常之快。市場即全球化，它正將各個經濟前所未有地緊密捆綁在一起，讓我們的員工、投資者和市場變得更加相互依存，暴露在全球趨勢的風險之中，沒有什麼圍牆可以保護他們。

Moore’s Law, the theory that the speed and power of microchips will double every two years, is, as Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson posit in their book, “The Second Machine Age,” so relentlessly increasing the power of software, computers and robots that they’re now replacing many more traditional white- and blue-collar jobs, while spinning off new ones — all of which require more skills.

摩爾定律指出，芯片的速度和能力每兩年就會翻一番。正如埃裏克·布林約爾鬆(Erik Brynjolfsson)和安德魯·麥卡菲(Andrew McAfee)在著作《第二次機器時代》(The Second Machine Age)中所說，軟件、計算機和機器人的能力增長如此迅猛，它們正在取代大量傳統的白領和藍領工作，同時又派生出新的工作，而所有新工作都需要工人掌握更多技能。

And the rapid growth of carbon in our atmosphere and environmental degradation and deforestation because of population growth on earth — the only home we have — are destabilizing Mother Nature’s ecosystems faster.

在我們唯一的家園地球，人口增長導致大氣含碳量快速增長，環境退化，森林遭到濫伐，使得大自然的生態系統更快地失去穩定性。

In sum, we’re in the middle of three “climate changes” at once: one digital, one ecological, one geo-economical. That’s why strong states are being stressed, weak ones are blowing up and Americans are feeling anxious that no one has a quick fix to ease their anxiety. And they’re right. The only fix involves big, hard things that can only be built together over time: resilient infrastructure, affordable health care, more start-ups and lifelong learning opportunities for new jobs, immigration policies that attract talent, sustainable environments, manageable debt and governing institutions adapted to the new speed.

總之，我們同時處在三個“氣候變化”之中：一個是數字，一個是生態，還有一個是地緣經濟。這就是爲什麼一些強國正在遭受壓力，弱國紛紛崩潰。這也讓美國人感到焦慮，因爲沒有人能提供快速解決方案來緩解這種焦慮。他們是對的。唯一的解決辦法涉及一些龐大、艱鉅的東西，隨着時間的推移，它們纔可以被構建起來：有恢復力的基礎設施、負擔得起的醫療服務、更多的初創企業、以及終身都存在的學習新崗位技能的機會、吸引人才的移民政策、可持續的環境、可控的債務、可以適應新速度的治理機構。

That’s just theory, you say? Really? Look at one aspect in one country: Mother Nature in Brazil. On Oct. 24, Reuters reported this from São Paulo: “South America’s biggest and wealthiest city may run out of water by mid-November if it doesn’t rain soon. São Paulo, a Brazilian megacity of 20 million people, is suffering its worst drought in at least 80 years, with key reservoirs that supply the city dried up after an unusually dry year.”

你覺得這只是理論？真的嗎？來看看一個國家的其中一方面：巴西的大自然。10月24日，路透社自聖保羅報道，“如果最近再不降雨，南美最大最富有的城市可能會在11月中旬耗盡水源。聖保羅，這個2000萬人口的巴西大都市，正在遭受至少80年一遇的嚴重乾旱，在經過異常乾燥的一年之後，爲這座城市供應水源的主要水庫乾涸了。”

Say what? São Paulo is running out of water? Yes.

什麼意思？聖保羅快沒水了？是的。

José Maria Cardoso da Silva, a Brazilian and senior adviser at Conservation International, explains: The drought hit a landscape that had been stripped of 80 percent of the natural forest along the Serra da Cantareira watersheds that feed six artificial reservoirs sustaining São Paulo. The Cantareira supplies nearly half of São Paulo’s water. The forests and wetlands have been replaced by farmfields, pastures and eucalyptus plantations. So today the pipes and reservoirs that gather the water are still in place, but the natural infrastructure of forests and watersheds has been badly degraded. The drought exposed it all.

巴西人何塞·瑪麗亞·卡多索·席爾瓦(José Maria Cardoso da Silva)是保護國際（Conservation International，簡稱CI）的高級顧問，他解釋說：旱災影響了塞拉達康達雷拉(Serra da Cantareira)流域的一片地區，那裏80%的天然森林已遭破壞，在爲聖保羅供水的人工水庫中，有六座的水就來自這片地區。康達雷拉爲聖保羅提供了的近一半的水。森林和溼地已被改建爲農場、牧場和人工桉樹林。所以，如今收集這些水的管道和水庫雖然還在，但森林和流域的自然基礎設施已經嚴重退化。乾旱把所有這些問題都暴露出來。

“Natural forests act like giant sponges soaking up rain and gradually releasing it into streams,” he said. “They also protect watercourses and maintain water quality by reducing sediment and filtering pollutants. The forest loss in Cantareira increased erosion, caused the decline in water quality, and changed seasonal water flows, reducing the resilience of the entire system against climatic extreme events.” The Cantareira system has fallen below 12 percent of capacity.

“天然林像巨大的海綿，吸收了雨水，逐漸釋放到河流裏，”他說。“他們還可以保護河道，並通過減少沉積物和過濾污染物保持水質。在康達雷拉，森林的損失增加了侵蝕，造成水質下降，並改變了季節水流量，減少了在氣候極端事件下，整個系統的恢復能力。”康達雷拉水系已經跌至其容量的12%以下。

Sadly, deforestation increased under Brazil’s newly re-elected president, Dilma Rousseff, but this was also barely an issue in Brazil’s election. Yet Reuters quoted Antonio Nobre, a leading climate scientist at Brazil’s National Space Research Institute, arguing that “global warming and the deforestation of the Amazon are altering the climate in the region by drastically reducing the release of billions of liters of water by rainforest trees. ‘Humidity that comes from the Amazon in the form of vapor clouds — what we call ‘flying rivers’ — has dropped dramatically, contributing to this devastating situation we are living today,’ ” Nobre said.

可悲的是，在最近獲得連任的巴西總統迪爾瑪·羅塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)執政期間，森林濫伐現象增加了，但在巴西的選舉中，這幾乎不算是問題。不過，路透社援引巴西國家空間研究所(National Space Research Institute)知名氣候科學家安東尼奧·諾佈雷(Antonio Nobre)的話，稱“熱帶雨林樹木本來會釋放的數十億升水，全球變暖和亞馬遜森林濫伐大幅減少了這些水量，改變了該地區的氣候。‘亞馬遜雨林釋放出的水霧被稱之爲‘飛河’，它已經大幅減少，再加上別的因素，就造成了我們今天的這種慘狀，’”諾佈雷說。

Paul Gilding, the Australian environmentalist and author of “The Great Disruption,” emailed from Brazil to say that the lack of a serious Brazilian response “reinforces to me that we’re not going to respond to the big global issues until they hit the economy. It’s hard to imagine a stronger example than a city of 20 million people running out of water. Yet despite the clear threat, the main response is ‘we hope it rains.’ Why such denial? Because the implications of acceptance are so significant, and we know in our hearts there’s no going back once you end denial. It would demand that the country face up to the urgency of reversing rather than slowing deforestation” and “the need to prepare the country for the risks that a changing climate presents.”

保羅·戈爾丁(Paul Gilding)是澳大利亞環保專家，《大破壞》(The Great Disruption)一書的作者，他從巴西發來電郵，說該國並沒有認真應對這個問題，“讓我更加覺得，我們不會對大規模的全球問題作出迴應，直到它們嚴重影響了經濟。很難想象，還會有什麼例子，比一個2000萬人口的城市水源快要耗盡更加有說服力。然而，儘管威脅清楚易見，人們的反應主要卻是：‘我們希望會下雨。’爲什麼要否認問題的存在？由於承認它意味着很多事情，我們心裏明白，一旦最終停止否認，就沒有回頭路了。這將需要巴西勇敢地去面對，扭轉森林砍伐的現象，而不是減緩砍伐速度，”並“需要讓全國做好準備，應對氣候變化帶來的風險”。

When changes in the market, Mother Nature and Moore’s Law all get this fast, opportunities and stresses abound. One day, we’ll have an election about how we cushion, exploit and adapt to them — an election to make America and Americans more resilient. One day.

當市場、大自然和摩爾定律中的變化發生得如此迅速的時候，機會和壓力也比比皆是。有一天，我們將會就如何緩解、利用和適應它們進行選舉，那將是一個讓美國和美國人變得更強韌的選舉。會有那麼一天。