中國投放儲備凍豬肉平抑肉價

Pork prices in China are at record levels even after Beijing pledged to decant some of its reserves on to the market this week in an attempt to tamp down the cost of the staple protein.

即便在北京方面本週承諾將部分儲備凍豬肉投放市場以平抑肉價之後，中國豬肉價格仍處於創紀錄水平。豬肉是中國人攝取蛋白質的主要來源之一。

When it comes to pig meat, China leads the world in terms of both supply and demand. But the swelling ranks of the middle class have put pork on more dinner tables every year — and driven up inflation.

在豬肉供給和需求方面，中國都處於世界領先水平。但不斷壯大的中產階層使中國的豬肉消費量逐年上升，推高了通脹水平。

In March pork was singled out after prices rose 28.4 per cent year-on-year, contributing 0.64 percentage points to headline inflation of 2.3 per cent.

今年3月，豬肉價格如脫繮野馬同比上漲28.4%，爲2.3%的整體通脹率貢獻了0.64個百分點。

China, home to the world’s biggest foreign currency reserves, also keeps a trove of other commodities at the ready, including oil, grain and pork.

中國擁有世界最大外匯儲備，同時也大量儲備其他大宗商品，包括石油、穀物和豬肉。

However, its stocks are seen as negligible compared with annual consumption: last year a US Department of Agriculture report described the market impact of the government’s stock purchasing programme as “insignificant”, noting it “generates more of a psychological effect than an actual market impact”.

然而，與中國的年消費量相比，這些儲備可忽略不計：美國農業部去年發佈的一份報告將中國政府儲備收購計劃對市場的影響形容爲“微不足道”，並指出這項計劃“在更大程度上產生的是心理效應，而非實際市場影響”。

That is cold comfort for policymakers, as the spot price for a kilo of pork in China has surpassed the 2011 peak thanks to a dearth of breeding sows and growing domestic consumption that have driven record imports of Chinese consumers’ favourite meat from foreign farms.

這對政策制定者不是什麼安慰。中國豬肉現貨價格已經超過了2011年的峯值，能繁母豬存欄量不足和日益增加的國內消費使得中國消費者最鍾愛的豬肉的進口量達到創紀錄水平。

Spot pork prices in China hit Rmb20.9/kg on Wednesday, up 4.5 per cent from the previous week’s starting level of Rmb20 and up 24.4 per cent for the year to date.

週三，中國現貨豬肉價格達到了每公斤20.9元人民幣，較上一週每公斤20元人民幣的價格上漲了4.5%，今年迄今漲幅高達24.4%。

That is feeding through to shops and diners. The average wholesale price for a kilo of pork in China rose to Rmb26.45 for the week ended Friday, up 0.8 per cent on the week, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. Even that was short of the average price for pork belly meat in 50 Chinese cities compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics, which had hit a record Rmb32.12 as of the week of April 15.

豬肉價格上漲直接影響到了商家和食客。根據中國農業部數據，截至上週五，中國豬肉的平均批發價漲至每公斤26.45元人民幣，一週上漲0.8%。這還不到中國國家統計局(NBS)彙編的中國50個城市豬五花肉的平均價格——在截至4月15日的那周創下每公斤32.12元人民幣的高點。

On Tuesday the Beijing municipal government unveiled an unprecedented release of 3.05m kg of frozen pork reserve into the capital’s market over a month starting this Thursday in an attempt to lower prices it said had risen 50.6 per cent month on month, according to state news agency Xinhua.

據官方的新華社報道，北京市政府週二宣佈，將在從本週四開始的一個月內向北京市場投放305萬公斤儲備凍豬肉，以圖平抑官方所稱的50.6%的環比價格漲幅。這是北京市政府首次向市場投放儲備凍豬肉。

Beijing will also provide subsidies of up to Rmb9 per kg of pork to vendors. Subsidies will also be used to encourage 20 per cent more pigs to be slaughtered during the same period.

北京還將向豬肉供應商提供每公斤最高達9元的補貼。同期補貼措施還將被用於鼓勵將生豬屠宰量提升20%。

The real constraint on policymakers’ ability to rein in prices is the limited breeding capacity of China’s hog farms.

政策制定者抑制肉價能力的真正制約在於中國養豬場有限的繁殖能力。

By as early as March 2015 the US Department of Agriculture was forecasting China’s swine herd would decline to 420m due to the exit of small-scale operations, a lack of government incentives, high feed prices and disease outbreaks that prompted farmers to cull their herds.

早在2015年3月，美國農業部就預測，中國的生豬存欄量將下降至4.2億頭，原因包括小規模養殖戶的退出、缺乏政府激勵、飼料價格高企以及疾病爆發導致農民屠宰生豬。

At last count in January, China’s total stock of sows was just shy of 38m, down from a peak of more than 50m in late 2012.

根據今年1月的最新統計，中國母豬總存欄量只有不到3800萬頭，遠低於2012年底逾5000萬頭的峯值。

As a result, imports are surging, up 90 per cent in the year to end-March to a record 286,093 metric tonnes, according to figures from the General Administration of Customs — still a sliver of total pork consumption nationwide, which last year came in at more than 57bn tonnes.

其結果是進口激增。根據中國海關總署(General Administration of Customs)數據，在截至3月底的一年裏，豬肉進口增幅達90%，達到創紀錄的28.6093萬噸，但這仍只佔中國豬肉總消費量（去年達到5700多萬噸）的很小一部分。