巴菲特終止所持美國市政債券CDS

A decision by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRKB -0.14% to end a large wager on the municipal-bond market is deepening questions from some investors about the risks of buying debt issued by cities, states and other public entities.

位於內布拉斯加州奧馬哈市的伯克希爾哈撒韋公司近日終止了爲82.5億美元市政債券承保的信用違約掉期(CDS)。該公司在本月提交給監管機構的季度備案文件中披露了此事。一個瞭解這筆交易的人說，這其實是將巴菲特在金融危機之前押下的美國10多個州將按時支付賬單的賭注提前五年結束。

The Omaha, Neb., company recently terminated credit-default swaps insuring $8.25 billion of municipal debt. The termination, disclosed in a quarterly filing with regulators this month, ended five years early a bullish bet that Mr. Buffett made before the financial crisis that more than a dozen U.S. states would keep paying their bills on time, according to a person familiar with the transaction.

CDS是一種與保險類似的合約，如發生債券違約，伯克希爾哈撒韋公司就要負責支付賠償金。這位知情者說，這些CDS最初由雷曼兄弟控股公司(Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.)於2007年購買，也就是這個華爾街投行申請破產一年多以前。

The insurance-like contracts, which required Berkshire to pay in the event of bond defaults, were originally purchased by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2007, more than a year before the Wall Street firm filed for bankruptcy, the person said.

沒有披露有關終止文件的細節。目前並不清楚此舉會給伯克希爾哈撒韋公司的市政債券賭注帶來盈利還是虧損。該公司81歲的董事長兼首席執行長巴菲特拒絕置評。

Details of the termination, with the Lehman Brothers estate, weren't disclosed. It isn't clear whether Berkshire's move will leave the company with a profit or loss on the wager. Mr. Buffett, Berkshire's 81-year-old chairman and chief executive, declined to comment.

一些投資者說，決定終止這些CDS表明世界上最精明的投資者之一巴菲特對美國地方政府的財政狀況持懷疑態度。若果真如此，那麼此舉對已經購買了這些債券的投資者可能是一個警告。對衝基金經理、個人持有伯克希爾哈撒韋公司股票的馬修斯(Jeff Matthews)說，巴菲特之所以提早取消CDS，很可能是不想再擁有這個敞口了，因此在能跑的時候就跑。

Some investors said the decision to end the bet indicates that one of the world's savviest investors has doubts about the state of municipal finances. If so, the move could be a warning to investors who have purchased such debt. In canceling the contracts early, Mr. Buffett probably 'doesn't want this exposure anymore and is getting out while he can,' said Jeff Matthews, a hedge-fund manager who personally owns Berkshire shares.

馬里蘭大學(University of Maryland)史密斯商學院(Robert H. Smith School of Business)教授、也持有伯克希爾哈撒韋公司股票的卡斯(David Kass)說，巴菲特可能認爲美國地方財政現在的風險要比當初伯克希爾建立此頭寸時大。目前，投資者正瘋狂買入市政債券，不斷推高債券價格，壓低收益率。一項跟蹤高信用評級市政債券的指數年初至今的表現要好過美國國債。據數據提供商Lipper統計，投資者上週向美國市政債券共同基金注入了9.64億美元，爲連續第18周資金淨流入。

David Kass, a professor at the University of Maryland's Robert H. Smith School of Business who also owns Berkshire shares, said Mr. Buffett may perceive more risk to municipalities than when Berkshire entered into the positions. Berkshire's move comes as investors are flooding into municipal debt, keeping bond prices high and yields low. An index of highly rated municipal bonds has outperformed government bonds so far this year. Last week, investors poured $964 million into municipal-bond mutual funds, marking 18 consecutive weeks of inflows, according to data firm Lipper.

上週四，美國加州發售了100億美元短期債券，發售規模創今年以來市政債券之最。大型投資者對於這批債券的需求十分旺盛，從而使得加州能以0.33%和0.43%的利率發行2013年年中到期的債券，這些債券將幫助加州滿足本財年的現金流需求。

Last Thursday, California sold $10 billion in short-term notes in the biggest municipal debt sale year to date. The offering saw strong demand from large investors, and California was able to borrow at rates of 0.33% and 0.43% for notes maturing in mid-2013 that will help the state meet its cash flow needs for the current fiscal year.

投資者本來可能視美國國債爲市政債券的替代投資品，但前者較低的新發行量和超低收益率讓投資者一直極爲關注市政債券，儘管在這方面已經出現了很多警告標誌，如加州已有三個城市按照聯邦破產法第九章申請了破產保護。

A relatively low supply of new bonds being issued and ultralow yields on Treasury debt that investors might otherwise consider as an alternative to municipal bonds have kept interest in municipal bonds strong despite numerous warning flags, such as the Chapter 9 bankruptcy-protection filings by three California cities.

雖然市政債券出現違約的情況還很少見，但分析人士說，最近接二連三的破產申請令投資者不安。例如，加州斯托克頓市正提議將大幅削減債權人所獲金額作爲該市進行債務重組的一部分。穆迪投資者服務公司(Moody's Investors Service)上週警告稱，加州各地發行的市政債券的違約風險正在上升，原因是很多城市面臨巨大的預算缺口。惠譽國際評級(Fitch Ratings)週一發佈報告預測說，很多地方政府的財政狀況持續承壓。

Although actual defaults remain rare, analysts said the recent bankruptcy filings raise troubling issues for investors. Stockton, Calif., for example, is proposing large reductions in the payments bondholders will receive as part of its restructuring. Moody's Investors Service warned last week that the 'risk of default on municipal bonds in California is rising' due to large budget gaps faced by many cities. A Fitch Ratings report Monday predicts 'continued stress for many local governments.'

伊利諾伊州金融管理局(Illinois Finance Authority)主席、爲陷入財務困境的城市和公司提供諮詢的機構Development Specialists Inc.首席執行長布蘭德(Bill Brandt)說，此事需要引起關注。他說，這些地方政府的領導人中有很多似乎隨時準備讓債權人成爲納稅者聖壇上的祭品，而不是讓納稅者向債權人低頭，而現實情況歷來都是如此。