以色列安全不能靠槍炮維持

When last week I saw a White House spokesman say that Israel’s bombing of a UN school was “totally indefensible”, I briefly thought that I had witnessed something new. Surely the Americans had never before been that strong in condemning Israel? But a colleague with a longer memory reminded me that Israel’s siege of west Beirut in 1982 had provoked President Ronald Reagan (yes, Reagan) to telephone Menachem Begin, the Israeli prime minister, and accuse him of perpetrating a “holocaust”. There is nothing new about Israeli military action killing hundreds of civilians. There is also nothing new about the international outcry it provokes.

上週，當我看到一位白宮發言人形容以色列轟炸一所聯合國(UN)創辦的學校是“完全站不住腳的”，我在短暫的一瞬間以爲自己看到了一些新的發展。以往美國人肯定從未這麼強硬地譴責過以色列吧？可是一位記性比我更好的同事提醒我，以色列在1982年圍困貝魯特西區，曾促使美國總統羅納德•里根(Ronald Reagan)（沒錯，就是里根）致電以色列總理梅納赫姆•貝京(Menachem Begin)，指責他犯下了一場“大屠殺”。以色列的軍事行動殺害成百上千名平民，這不是什麼新鮮事。以色列的行動引發國際社會的聲討，這也不是什麼新鮮事。

In the 32 years since Reagan called Begin, the Berlin Wall has fallen, the Soviet Union has collapsed, China has been transformed, apartheid has ended and the internet has revolutionised communication. But the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has rolled ever onwards – with two intifadas, three invasions of Gaza, further wars in Lebanon and innumerable failed peace initiatives.

里根致電貝京以來的32年裏，柏林牆倒塌了，蘇聯解體了，中國大變樣了，南非的種族隔離結束了，互聯網開啓了一場通信革命。然而以色列和巴勒斯坦的衝突延續至今——其間發生了兩次巴勒斯坦人起義(intifada)、三次加沙入侵、在黎巴嫩進行的進一步戰爭、以及無數次失敗的和平倡議。

While the Israelis and the Palestinians remain locked in bloody conflict, however, the region around them is changing fast. For the moment, those changes are actually making Israel less vulnerable to international condemnation. In the longer term, shifts in global power suggest that Israel’s future will be bleak, particularly if it does not make peace with the Palestinians.

然而，在以色列人和巴勒斯坦人深陷血腥衝突的同時，他們周圍的地區正在迅速地改變。眼下，這些改變其實讓以色列少受國際社會譴責的影響。但從較長期看，全球實力的此消彼長意味着，以色列的未來將是暗淡的，如果它不能和巴勒斯坦達成和解就更是如此。

For now, Israel is benefiting from the fact that the Arab world, which has acted as the chief advocate for the Palestinians in previous conflicts, is ripping itself apart. Syria and Iraq are engulfed by conflict, and Libya is in turmoil. The Egyptian government itself has killed hundreds of supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood in Cairo and regards Hamas as an offshoot of the Brotherhood. Saudi Arabia, the other big power in the Arab world, is also deeply hostile to Hamas.

就目前而言，以往巴以衝突中巴勒斯坦的主要後臺——阿拉伯世界——正在分崩離析，而以色列從中受益。敘利亞和伊拉克被捲入衝突之中，利比亞陷入動亂。在開羅，埃及政府殺死了數以百計的穆斯林兄弟會(Muslim Brotherhood)支持者，還將哈馬斯(Hamas)看成一個脫胎於穆兄會的組織。阿拉伯世界的另一個大國沙特阿拉伯也對哈馬斯懷有深深的敵意。

Outside the region, geopolitical shifts are taking the edge off the anti-Israel backlash. The governments of Russia, India and China are deeply concerned about the threat of radical Islam at home. Last week more than 100 people were killed in the Chinese province of Xinjiang, after fighting provoked by Muslim separatists. Russia also has 20m Muslim citizens and, after waging two brutal wars in Chechnya, is paranoid about Islamist militancy. Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, is a Hindu nationalist, who himself is accused of connivance in anti-Muslim violence.

在中東地區以外，地緣政治的變化也使針對以色列的反對力度減輕了。俄羅斯、印度和中國政府正爲國內極端伊斯蘭勢力帶來的威脅深感憂慮。上週，在中國新疆自治區，超過100人在穆斯林分裂分子引發的衝突中喪生。俄羅斯國內有2000萬穆斯林公民，在對車臣進行兩次殘酷戰爭後，俄羅斯對伊斯蘭主義武裝組織極度恐慌。印度總理納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)是一位印度教民族主義分子，他本人被指責縱容反穆斯林暴力行動。

These political shifts are not reflected in official diplomacy. China, Russia and India voted in favour of an investigation of possible Israeli war crimes in Gaza, at the recent session of the UN Human Rights council. (EU countries abstained and the US voted against.) But there is something formulaic about the condemnation. An Israeli official says that in high-level meetings between Israeli and Chinese leaders, the Chinese spent “roughly 20 seconds” on Palestine. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, and President Vladimir Putin of Russia get on famously.

官方外交併沒有反映這些政治轉向。在最近的一次聯合國人權理事會(UN Human Rights council)投票中，中國、俄羅斯和印度對調查以色列在加沙可能犯下的戰爭罪投了贊成票。（歐盟各成員國棄權，美國投了反對票。）然而，對以色列的譴責有些模式化。一位以色列官員表示，在以色列和中國領導人進行高級別會晤時，中方花了“大概20秒”來談論巴勒斯坦問題。以色列總理本傑明•內塔尼亞胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)與俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)相處融洽也是廣爲人知的。

Yet while Israel’s traditional enemies are becoming less hostile, its allies are becoming less friendly. The relationship between Mr Netanyahu and US President Barack Obama is chilly – and some Israeli officials are openly contemptuous of John Kerry, the US secretary of state. Opinion polls in the US also suggest that young people are much less sympathetic to Israel than older groups are. However, such shifts may take decades to filter through into US policy. Israel’s position in Washington is deeply entrenched. The US Senate voted unanimously to support the Gaza assault and the Obama administration has combined its condemnation of Israeli actions with continued aid and arms sales.

然而，儘管以色列的傳統敵人的敵意降低了，但其盟友也變得沒那麼友好了。內塔尼亞胡和美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)關係冷淡，而一些以色列官員公開表達對美國國務卿約翰•克里(John Kerry)的不屑。美國的民意調查也顯示，相比老一輩來說，美國的年輕人對以色列的同情心少得多。不過，這些轉變可能需要數十年才能滲入美國的政策。以色列在華盛頓的地位根深蒂固。美國參議院一致通過支持以色列進攻加沙，而奧巴馬政府在譴責以色列行爲的同時，繼續向以色列提供援助和軍售。

Many European leaders are openly appalled by Israel’s actions in Gaza and Europe’s large Muslim population has been at the forefront of anti-Israel demonstrations. But Europe’s Muslims are an often marginalised and unpopular group. Manuel Valls, the French prime minister, has condemned anti-Semitic demonstrations which he says have fused the “Palestinian cause, jihadism, the detestation of Israel and the hatred of France”. Any such fusion helps Israel because it reduces sympathy for the Palestinians.

許多歐洲的領導人公開表示對以色列在加沙的行動感到震驚，歐洲龐大的穆斯林人羣是反以色列遊行的先鋒。然而歐洲的穆斯林是一個常常被邊緣化、不受歡迎的羣體。法國總理曼努埃爾·瓦爾斯(Manuel Valls)譴責了反猶太人遊行，稱這種遊行混合了“巴勒斯坦的事業、聖戰主義、對以色列的憎惡和對法國的仇恨”。任何把這些事情混合在一起的嘗試都會幫助以色列，因爲這會削弱對巴勒斯坦人的同情心。

Israeli settlements, would be largely symbolic in their impact. Surveying this global picture, Israel seems to have decided that it can afford to ignore international condemnation of the Gaza war. That calculation may prove correct, as far as the current conflict is concerned.

更寬泛地說，美國實力的相對下降，對於一個西方文化的前哨國家是個壞消息。美國介入中東衝突的意願正在降低。這意味着，從長期來看，以色列只能通過與鄰國和平相處來保證自身安全。每隔幾年就把加沙變成一片廢墟、殺害成百上千的平民，只能讓和平的前景更加遙遠。