阿拉伯青年如何看待ISIS What Arab youth thinks of Isis

The rise of Isis is the Middle East’s greatest challenge in the eyes of young Arabs who identify a lack of jobs as the main recruitment driver for the Sunni militant group.

在阿拉伯青年眼中，“伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)的崛起是中東最大的挑戰。他們認爲，工作機會的缺乏是這個遜尼派軍事集團能夠招募成員的最主要推動因素。

Many respondents to the annual Asda’a Burson-Marsteller Arab youth survey were unable to explain why anyone would join Isis. But they said its rise was helped by growing sectarian tensions as well as the jihadis’ belief in the superiority of their interpretation of Islam. But three-quarters said they do not believe Isis will establish an Islamic state.

在一年一度的Asda'a博雅公關(Burson-Marsteller)阿拉伯青年調查中，許多受調查者無法解釋，爲何會有人想要加入ISIS。但他們表示，日益加劇的宗派緊張局勢，以及聖戰分子認爲他們對伊斯蘭教義的詮釋至高無上的想法，助長了ISIS的崛起。但四分之三的受調查者表示，他們不相信ISIS會建立一個伊斯蘭國家。

The survey of 3,500 18-24 year olds across 16 Arab countries is the broadest poll of young people — the majority of the population in a region characterised by increasing instability, repressive political systems and few outlets for free expression.

共有3500人接受了這次調查，來自16個阿拉伯國家，年齡從18到24歲。這是在阿拉伯年輕人中間進行的最廣泛的調查——在這個以日益不穩定、實行專制政治制度和極其缺乏自由表達渠道爲特徵的地區，年輕人佔多數人口。

The respondents ranked Isis terrorism, unemployment and civil unrest as the biggest challenges facing the region.

受調查者將ISIS恐怖主義、失業、社會動亂列爲該地區面臨的最大挑戰。

“The organisation [Isis] thrives on political, economic, social and religious failures,” said Hassan Hassan, an analyst, in a white paper accompanying the survey. “Daesh [Arabic for Isis] may weaken and disappear, but the underlying sickness will remain and similar groups will emerge if that sickness is not addressed.”

“政治、經濟、社會和宗教方面的失敗造成了該組織（即ISIS）的興盛，”分析人士哈桑•哈桑(Hassan Hassan)在調查附帶的一份白皮書中表示，“‘達伊沙’（Daesh，阿拉伯語中對ISIS的稱呼）可能變得衰弱和消失，但根本病症依然存在，如果不加以解決，還會有類似的團體出現。”

In a sign of the changes that swept the region since the 2011 Arab uprisings, 36 per cent of respondents said the Arab world was better off for the revolts, down from 72 per cent in 2012. Only in Egypt do most young people believe the country to be a better place. Two-thirds of youths in the Gulf and most in north Africa say promoting stability is more important than promoting democracy.

體現2011年阿拉伯起義之後席捲該地區的變革的一個跡象是，有36%的受調查者認爲，阿拉伯世界因爲起義變得更好，比例低於2012年的72%。只有在埃及，多數年輕人相信他們的國家變得更好。海灣地區三分之二的年輕人和北非的大多數年輕人表示，促進穩定比推進民主更重要。

Yet youths across the region, particularly in Saudi Arabia, supported more personal freedoms and rights for women.

不過，各地年輕人都支持改善個人自由和女性權利，尤其是在沙特阿拉伯。

The rise of Isis has been accompanied by increasing sectarian strife with Sunni Saudi Arabia locked in a regional tussle with Shia Iran and its regional proxies, such as Hizbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

除了ISIS崛起，宗派衝突也在加劇。遜尼派的沙特阿拉伯和什葉派的伊朗及其地區代理人，比如黎巴嫩真主黨(Hizbollah)和也門胡塞(Houthi)叛軍，深陷地區爭鬥。

Almost half of the respondents said the Sunni-Shia divide has widened during the past five years, with the figure rising to 88 per cent in Yemen and 62 per cent in Iraq, where Isis has benefited from Sunni dissent against the Shia-run government. Syrians were not included in the survey.

近一半受調查者表示，遜尼派與什葉派的分裂在過去5年中擴大了。這個比例在也門提高到了88%。在伊拉克也提高到了62%，在那裏ISIS受益於遜尼派對什葉派政府的反對。此次調查未覆蓋敘利亞人。

“Growing sectarian tensions in the Middle East strengthen the extremist narrative of Daesh — that Shia are the enemies and conflicts involving Iranian-backed militias from Yemen to Lebanon are part of a wider war against Sunni Muslims,” said Mr Hassan.

“中東地區不斷加劇的宗派緊張局勢支持了達伊沙極端主義的敘事——即什葉派是敵人，從也門到黎巴嫩等地，伊朗支持的民兵組織參與的衝突是針對遜尼派穆斯林的更廣泛戰爭的一部分，”哈桑說。

The survey, which started in 2008, found that most Arab youths continue to regard Saudi Arabia as their main ally, followed by the US and the UAE.

這一調查從2008年開始。該調查發現，大多數阿拉伯青年依然將沙特阿拉伯視爲他們的主要盟友，緊隨其後的是美國和阿聯酋。

But attitudes toward Iran have softened over the past two years, especially in Shia Iraq and Lebanon, and in the Palestinian territory, where 43 per cent of respondents identified the Islamic republic as an ally.

但對伊朗的態度在過去兩年有所軟化，尤其是在什葉派的伊拉克和黎巴嫩，以及巴勒斯坦地區，後一個地區43%的受調查者將這個伊斯蘭共和國看作盟友。

Views of the US are also shifting. While it remains well regarded in the Gulf states despite a recent rise in tensions over Iran’s nuclear deal, Washington is seen as an enemy by two-thirds of young people in the Levant and in Yemen. More than nine out of 10 young Iraqis regard the US as an enemy, although the US is backing Baghdad in its fight against Isis.

對美國的看法也在轉變。儘管因爲伊朗核協議，最近美國和海灣國家之間的關係趨於緊張，海灣國家的受調查者依然對美國有好感。而在地中海東部地區和也門，三分之二的年輕人將美國視爲敵人。儘管美國正在支持伊拉克打擊ISIS，90%以上的伊拉克年輕人將美國視爲敵人。

The collapse in oil prices is also concern for Arab youths, especially those in oil-exporting countries. There is widespread opposition to fiscal rationalisation measures, such as ending subsidies on fuel and utilities that have been a key part of governments’ patrimonial cradle-to-grave support for their citizens.

油價暴跌也是阿拉伯年輕人擔心的問題，尤其是在那些石油出口國。受調查者普遍反對財政合理化舉措，比如取消對燃油和公用事業費用的補貼，這些是政府對公民家長式的“從搖籃到墳墓”的支持的關鍵部分。

There has been little sign of popular opposition to the ending of subsidies but the survey shows that 86 per cent in Saudi Arabia and more than 90 per cent in Bahrain, Qatar and Oman oppose the measure — a potentially worrying sign for oil-exporting governments.

目前幾乎沒有民衆反對取消這些補貼的跡象，但這次調查表明，沙特阿拉伯86%的受調查者以及巴林、卡塔爾和阿曼超過90%的受調查者反對這類措施——對石油出口國的政府而言，這是一個潛在地令人擔憂的跡象。