美國新國防戰略着重對付中俄

The Pentagon’s first new national defence strategy in four years will adopt a more aggressive military stance against China and Russia as its top priority, according to people familiar with the document.

知情人士稱，美國五角大樓將出臺四年來的首份新國防戰略，其核心要點是對中國和俄羅斯採取更具攻擊性的軍事立場。

The focus restores Washington’s rivalry with other leading powers to the forefront of US defence planning, in line with last month’s White House national security strategy that named Russia and China as America’s chief adversaries.

這意味着華盛頓的國防方針將重新把美國與其他主要大國之間的對抗擺在首要位置，與上月白宮發佈的《國家安全戰略》路線一致，後者將俄羅斯和中國列爲美國的主要對手。

A defence official who has read the classified document, a small part of which is due to be released in unclassified form on Friday by defence secretary Jim Mattis, told the Financial Times the US is concerned that America’s chief adversaries are eroding its traditional military advantage.

一名讀過這份機密文件的國防部官員對英國《金融時報》表示，美國擔心主要對手正在侵蝕自身傳統的軍事優勢。美國國防部長吉姆?馬蒂斯(Jim Mattis)將於週五公佈這份文件的一小部分非機密內容。

“As you look at what China and Russia have developed, it is purposefully meant to counter some of our strengths,” the official said. “What the Chinese have done on hypersonics is specifically meant to limit our aircraft carriers.”

“看看中國和俄羅斯都發展了什麼，他們的目的就是有意要對抗我們的一些優勢，”上述官員稱，“中國在高超音速方面所做的意在限制我們的航母。”

China has developed a fast-flying ballistic missile that in theory could overwhelm US missile defence systems carried on board its sophisticated aircraft carriers.

中國已研製出一型飛行速度極快的彈道導彈，理論上可以穿透美國部署在其先進航母上的導彈防禦系統。

President Donald Trump has called for one of the “greatest military build-ups in American history” to ensure “nobody is going to mess with us”.

美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)呼籲進行“美國曆史上最偉大的軍事建設”之一，以確保“沒有人會干擾我們”。

Since the September 11 2001 terrorist attacks on the US, successive administrations have been preoccupied with the threat from Islamist extremism and embroiled in relatively low-tech wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Obama administration focused on overcoming Isis as well as a more diffuse range of threats — including China and Russia — in order to “protect the homeland” and “project power”.

自2001年9月11日遭受恐怖襲擊以來，美國曆屆政府一直忙於應對伊斯蘭極端主義的威脅，並在伊拉克和阿富汗打了兩場技術含量較低的戰爭。奧巴馬(Obama)政府聚焦於打擊“伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)以及應對各種威脅（包括來自中國和俄羅斯的威脅），以“保護美國本土”和“投射軍力”。

But officials in the Trump administration argue the US now needs to focus its efforts on larger conventional conflict and modernise its forces in the face of rapid technological advances and an increasingly aggressive posture from China and Russia. Insiders say the new Pentagon focus will bolster calls for increased spending and a White House-backed build-up of military hardware.

但特朗普政府的官員稱，面對日新月異的技術進步和中俄日益咄咄逼人的姿態，美國現在需要把精力集中於應對較大規模的常規衝突，推動軍力現代化。內部人士表示，五角大樓新的防務重點將推高要求增加國防開支、加強白宮支持的軍備建設的呼聲。

“This document definitely moves beyond [the Obama administration strategy] to very explicitly recognise that we are in an era of great power competition and the two countries that most challenge the US are Russia and China,” said another person familiar with the development of the document.

另一位瞭解該文件起草過程的人士表示：“這份文件必然超越（奧巴馬政府國防戰略）——非常明確地承認，我們正處在一個大國競爭的時代，而對美國構成最大挑戰的兩個國家是俄羅斯和中國。”

“It tries to put US defences on a more competitive basis given the investments that China and Russia have made,” the second person said, adding the strategy seeks to make the US “more competitive in those areas where China and Russia have invested and sought to exploit asymmetries that are favourable to them.”

“考慮到中國和俄羅斯的投入，文件試圖讓美國的防禦建立在更具競爭力的基礎上，”第二位人士表示，並補充說，該戰略的意圖是，“在中國和俄羅斯做了投入、尋求利用對自身有利的非對稱戰爭手段的領域，增強美國的競爭力”。

Experts warn that despite America’s superior military inventory — it has eleven large aircraft carriers to China’s two — the Pentagon is increasingly vulnerable to niche capabilities that its adversaries have developed specifically to target the US.

專家們警告稱，儘管美國擁有優良的軍事裝備（美國有11艘大型航母，中國僅有兩艘），但五角大樓越來越容易受到對手專門針對美國發展的特定能力的攻擊。

“We could lose the next war we fight,” said David Ochmanek, a former Pentagon official now at the RAND Corporation think-tank and who testified to Congress last year about rapid military advances from Beijing and Moscow.

前五角大樓官員、現在供職於智庫蘭德公司(RAND Corporation)的戴維?奧切曼尼克(David Ochmanek)稱：“我們可能輸掉下一場戰爭。”他去年曾就北京和莫斯科在軍事上的快速進步在美國國會作證。

“China and Russia have made great strides fielding [technology] that our forces have never encountered in the post-Cold war era,” he told the FT, citing development of thousands of highly accurate and long-range missile systems that can reach US airbases and foreign fighter jets that could threaten US air superiority.

“中國和俄羅斯在實戰（技術）方面取得了巨大進步，這是我國軍隊在後冷戰時代從未遇到的，”奧切曼尼克告訴英國《金融時報》，他提到了兩國已經造出了數千顆可以打到美國空軍基地的高精度遠程導彈系統，還有可能威脅美國空中優勢的外國戰鬥機。

“With cyber and electronic warfare they can threaten our space-based systems and disrupt our command and control which is the brain of complex modern military operations,” said Mr Ochmanek. “We have basically taken a holiday from keeping pace with electronic threats.”

“通過網絡戰和電子戰，他們有可能威脅到我們的天基系統，擾亂我們的指揮和控制，這是複雜的現代軍事行動的大腦。”奧切曼尼克說。“在與時俱進應對電子威脅方面，我們可以說是休了一個假。”

US officials are also mindful of minimising casualties in the event of any large conventional war and maintaining what military planners term “overmatch” in a bid to deter adversaries.

美國官員也考慮在發生大規模常規戰爭時最大限度地減少傷亡，並維持軍事規劃者所說的“強勢”以威懾對手。

Mr Trump’s proposed budget calls for an increased defence department base budget of $603bn, just 3 per cent more than in 2016 and down from $770bn in 2010 at the peak of the war in Afghanistan.

特朗普提出的預算案要求將防務部門的基礎預算提高到6030億美元，只比2016年提高3%，少於2010年阿富汗站戰爭打得最激烈時的7700億美元。

Congress has approved an even higher defence budget of $700bn for 2018 but it remains subject to a $549bn spending cap that has yet to be removed as part of overall budget negotiations.

國會已經批准了數額更大的2018年國防預算，爲7000億美元，但這依然受制於5490億美元的支出上限。作爲整體預算協商的一部分，這一上限尚未被解除。

Some critics say a military build-up against other big powers could lead to an arms race that only makes war between nuclear-armed powers more likely.

一些批評人士表示，發展軍備對抗其他大國可能導致軍備競賽，這隻會使核大國之間爆發戰爭的可能性上升。

Joe Cirincione, president of Ploughshares Fund, a global security foundation that campaigns against weapons build-up, says it is “almost impossible” for China and Russia to close the military gap on the US.

反對擴大軍備的全球安全基金會犁頭基金會(Ploughshares Fund)的主席喬?奇林喬內(Joe Cirincione)表示，中國和俄羅斯要在軍事上縮小與美國的差距“幾乎是不可能的”。

“We spend more on our military than the next ten countries combined, including China and Russia: we have the largest, most capable military force in the world,” said Mr Cirincione, adding that while China is “maybe” about to build its third aircraft carrier it cannot match the fleet of the US, which has 11 large carriers and 9 smaller ones.

“我們的軍費要比排在後面的10個國家加起來還多，其中包括中國和俄羅斯：我們擁有世界上規模最大、能力最強的軍事力量。”奇林喬內說，他補充稱，就算中國“可能”要建造第三艘航空母艦，也無法與擁有11艘大型航母和9艘較小航母的美國航母艦隊相比。

“The Russians are working on some interesting new weapons but they don’t come close to the sophistication or quantity of our weapons,” he said.

“俄羅斯人正在研究一些有趣的新武器，但不管是武器的先進程度還是數量，他們都無法趕上我們，”奇林喬內說。