朝韓“分手”近70年,想要“和好”意味着什麼

HONG KONG — How do you make up after a 70-year breakup? It’s not easy.

香港——分手70年後，你會怎麼和好？這件事不容易。

South Korea says it has been in talks with North Korea and the United States to formally end the 1950-53 Korean War, which was halted by an armistice, or truce, rather than a negotiated peace treaty, which means that the fighting ended, but the war did not.

韓國稱一直在與朝鮮和美國商談，希望正式結束1950～1953年的朝鮮戰爭。朝鮮戰爭是根據休戰、或者說停戰協議，而不是通過談判達成和平協議停火的。這意味着戰鬥結束了，但戰爭還沒有。

The prospects of such a deal are still unclear. While the outlines of a peace accord have been considered for decades, there are drastic differences this time. President Trump’s announcement that he would meet with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, could lead to the first-ever direct meeting between leaders of the two countries.

達成這樣一份協議的前景尚不明朗。儘管和平協議的框架已經考慮了數十年，但這一次有着巨大的不同。特朗普總統宣佈將與朝鮮領導人金正恩(Kim Jong-un)會面，這可能會促成兩國領導人有史以來的首次直接會晤。

But first Mr. Kim will meet with President Moon Jae-in of South Korea this Friday in the Demilitarized Zone that divides their countries. The South’s declaration that a deal to end the war formally is under consideration has raised expectations for their meeting.

但金正恩首先會於本週五，在朝韓之間的非軍事區與韓國總統文在寅(Moon Jae-in)會面。韓國宣稱正式結束朝鮮戰爭的協議正在考慮之中，讓外界對他們的會面充滿期待。

A permanent pause in a bitter war

一場激烈戰爭的永久性停火

A peace deal would replace the armistice that ended combat, if not the outbreak of small-scale hostilities, on the Korean Peninsula but did not resolve the conflict between the two Koreas. The armistice was a military document, setting forth the terms for a cease-fire. A peace agreement would have been a more complicated political agreement.

和平協議將取代停戰協定。停戰協定結束了朝鮮半島上的戰事，儘管不時有小規模戰鬥爆發。然而，停戰協定並沒有解決兩國之間的衝突。它是一份軍事文件，闡明瞭停火的條件。和平協議會是一份更爲複雜的政治協議。

After the end of World War II in 1945, Korea, which had been a Japanese colony, was divided into two zones. The Soviets occupied the north, while the Americans occupied the south.

1945年第二次世界大戰結束後，曾是日本殖民地的朝鮮被一分爲二。蘇聯佔領北部，美國佔領南部。

In 1948 the two sides formed their own governments, and in 1950 the North invaded the South. The United States led a United Nations force in alliance with the South, while China aided the North.

1948年，雙方各自組建政府。1950年，朝鮮入侵韓國。美國率領一支聯合國部隊與韓國結盟，中國則援助朝鮮。

The 1953 armistice was signed at Panmunjom, a village in what became the Demilitarized Zone, by Lt. Gen. William K. Harrison, an American and representative of the United Nations forces, and Gen. Nam Il, who represented North Korea and the Chinese forces.

1953年的停戰協定是代表聯合國軍隊的美國中將威廉·K·哈里森(William K. Harrison)與代表朝鮮和中國的南日(Nam Il)大將在板門店村簽署的。後來，板門店所在地成了非軍事區。

It was signed later by the North Korean leader, Kim Il-sung; Gen. Mark W. Clark, an American who led United Nations troops; and Peng Dehuai, commander of the Chinese forces, who called themselves “volunteers.”

隨後，朝鮮領導人金日成(Kim Il-sung)、領導聯合國軍隊的美國上將馬克·W·克拉克(Mark W. Clark)，以及自稱“志願軍”的中國軍隊的指揮官彭德懷在協議上簽字。

The South promised to observe the cease-fire but did not sign because it held out hopes of unifying the Korean Peninsula.

韓國承諾遵守停火協議，但沒有簽字，因爲它仍抱有統一朝鮮半島的希望。

The armistice set out terms for prisoner exchanges and created the specifics of the Demilitarized Zone, the buffer dividing North and South that is two and a half miles wide.

停戰協定列出了交換俘虜的條件，並制定了非軍事區的細節。非軍事區寬2.5英里（約合4公里），將朝鮮和韓國分隔開來，是一個緩衝地帶。

What would replace the armistice?

取代停戰協定的會是什麼？

While discussions of a peace deal often refer to a “treaty,” a formal treaty would face significant obstacles. The North and South both claim to be the rightful government of the entire Korean Peninsula and representative of people on both sides. So a formal treaty would be met with significant questions of sovereignty.

儘管有關和平協議的討論經常提到“條約”，但達成正式的條約會遇到很大障礙。朝韓雙方都稱自己是整個朝鮮半島的合法政府，是雙方民衆的代表。因此，正式條約會遇到意義重大的主權問題。

And for the United States to sign would require the approval of Congress, another wrinkle.

並且美國要簽署條約須得到國會的批准，這又是一個問題。

Instead, South Korea has hedged its descriptions, referring to the “establishment of permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula” as a goal.

韓國反倒避免進行描述，稱自己的目標是“在朝鮮半島上建立永久和平”。

That still allows plenty of room for a statement of peace. But it would be a start, not an end.

這依然給和平聲明留下了大量餘地。但這可能是一個開始，而不是結束。

“Whatever they call it: a peace declaration, a peace accord, even a peace treaty — it doesn’t mean we will all wake up and Korea is at peace,” said John Delury, an associate professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University in Seoul. “It’s significant, but it’s embedded in a process. I would imagine the two Koreas can do something on their own to declare their own commitment to peace.”

“和平宣言、和平協議甚至和平條約，無論怎麼叫，都不意味着我們一覺醒來，朝鮮半島就和平了，”首爾延世大學(Yonsei University)研究中國問題的副教授魯樂漢(John Delury)說。“它意義重大，但要有一個過程。我想兩國可能會獨自做點什麼，宣告自己致力於和平。”

What would a peace process look like?

和平進程會是什麼樣子？

A declaration could begin a peace process that would weigh more than the central questions of the North’s nuclear and missile programs. North and South Korea could agree to pull back their forces from the border and create some sort of system for inspections of each side to verify compliance.

和平進程可能由發表一項聲明開始，該進程將比朝鮮的核計劃與導彈計劃的核心問題更重要。朝鮮和韓國可能同意從邊界撤回部隊，並建立某種對雙方進行檢查的系統，來驗證雙方是否遵守協議。

Other ideas that have been suggested in past years include setting up joint teams to remove some of the hundreds of thousands of land mines in the DMZ. And the zone itself, which is rich in wildlife thanks to its oddly protected status, could become a park and tourist destination for visitors from both sides.

過去幾年中提出的其他想法還包括成立聯合小組，掃除非軍事區內數十萬地雷中的一部分。這一區域因特殊的受保護狀態而擁有豐富的野生動物，從而有可能成爲公園和旅遊勝地，吸引兩國遊客。

Precedents to build on

可借鑑的先例

The two sides have discussed a formal peace process before, a reminder that expectations should be kept in check.

雙方此前亦曾經討論過正式的和平進程，這提醒人們，應該抑制自己的期望值。

But it also means there are precedents to build on, including a “peace declaration” made at a 2000 summit meeting between Kim Jong-il, then leader of North Korea, and Kim Dae-jung, then president of the South.

但這也意味着有先例可供借鑑，其中包括時任朝鮮領導人金正日與時任韓國總統金大中於2000年的一次首腦會議上作出的“和平宣言”。

A 2007 meeting between Kim Jong-il and Roh Moo-hyun, then president of South Korea, concluded with a series of economic agreements and proposals for easing tensions along the western maritime border.

2007年，金正日與時任韓國總統盧武鉉曾進行會晤，最終達成了一系列經濟協議和緩解西部海上邊界緊張局勢的提案。

One noteworthy difference this time is that North Korea, which has long pushed for a peace accord with the United States while trying to undercut South Korea, has acknowledged a more important role for its neighbor this time, said Gordon Flake, a Korea specialist at the University of Western Australia.

西澳大利亞大學(University of Western Australia)的朝鮮問題專家戈登·弗雷克(Gordon Flake)說，這次有一個值得注意的區別：朝鮮此前一直在努力與美國達成和平協議，並試圖打擊韓國；這一次，它承認鄰國扮演着更加重要的角色。

“All told, I’m deeply skeptical about what will happen,” he said. “But North Korea initiating conversation with the South first, that sequencing to me is a positive development.”

“總而言之，我對即將發生的事情深感懷疑，”他說。“但朝鮮首先開啓同韓國的對話，我覺得這一順序是一種積極的發展。”

In addition, the main parties have already taken steps that could improve the prospects for a more lasting peace. North Korea has not protested the annual war games that the United States and South Korea opened this month. The drills have been less highly publicized this year, with less focus on the strategic assets that most anger the North Koreans, like B-1 bombers flown from Guam.

此外，主要各方已經採取可以促進持久和平前景的措施。朝鮮並未抗議美國和韓國於本月開始的年度軍事演習。今年的演習亦沒有得到廣泛宣傳，並且沒有把重點放在最能激怒朝鮮人的戰略資產上，比如從關島起飛的B-1轟炸機。

North Korea has said it will not demand the removal of American troops from the Korean Peninsula as a condition for giving up its nuclear weapons, Mr. Moon said. And South Korea said Friday that the two sides had installed what was being called the first hotline between their leaders.

文在寅說，朝鮮已經表示，它不會以要求美國從朝鮮半島撤軍作爲放棄核武器的條件。韓國於週五表示，雙方已經安裝了一個通話系統，號稱是兩國領導人之間的第一條熱線。