若離開阿里巴巴 雅虎價值幾何

Yahoo is dressed like a high-growth company. But it may soon have to revert to humbler garb.

雅虎(Yahoo)打扮得像一家高增長公司。但它可能很快就得現出原形。

Much of the Internet company's value rests on its 24% stake in Alibaba. Investors seeking exposure to the unlisted Chinese e-commerce juggernaut have flocked to Yahoo's shares. These now sport a tech-like multiple of 25.5 times 2014 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, about double that of Google.

這家互聯網公司的價值有很大一部分在於其所持24%的阿里巴巴股份。想要投資於這家未上市中國電子商務巨頭的投資者紛紛買進雅虎投票。依據雅虎2014年預期息稅折舊攤銷前收益計算的市盈率目前爲25.5倍，與科技公司估值相當，差不多是谷歌(Google)的兩倍。

But when Alibaba completes its initial public offering, expected next year, investors must ask whether Yahoo still is worth owning without its glitzy wardrobe.

但阿里巴巴預計明年將完成首次公開募股(IPO)，屆時投資者肯定會問，在雅虎失去了阿里巴巴股份這一眩目的行頭之後，它是否仍然值得擁有。

The decline of the Internet portal as the most efficient way to reach the greatest number of users and the rise of programmatic ad buying, which is site-agnostic, have created permanent challenges for Yahoo's display advertising business, according to Pivotal Research. Meanwhile, Yahoo's share of search, as tracked by comScore, continues to deteriorate, dropping to 11.2% in November from 12.1% a year earlier.

據市場研究機構Pivotal Research，門戶網站曾經是影響最大用戶羣體的最有效途徑，但這種途徑出現衰落，不論站點的程序化廣告購買的興起給雅虎的展示廣告業務帶來了永久的挑戰。與此同時，comScore跟蹤的雅虎在搜索市場佔據的份額持續下降，11月降至11.2%，上年同期爲12.1%。

Since Marissa Mayer joined Yahoo as chief executive in July 2012 she has pursued various strategies aimed at driving traffic to the site and boosting its advertising business.

梅耶爾(Marissa Mayer)自2012年7月加入雅虎任首席執行長以來，實施了衆多旨在提高網站訪問量、提振廣告業務的策略。

Some of these efforts appear to have paid off. In September, Yahoo's global traffic, including desktop and mobile, returned to levels unseen since 2011, reversing two years of declines. And traffic to Yahoo's sites from desktop users bested Google's in August, September and October, ranking No. 1 on comScore's list of Top 50 properties. Mobile growth also has been significant, with more than 400 million monthly active users, up from 200 million at the end of 2012.

其中一些舉措似乎產生了效果。今年9月，雅虎包括電腦和移動設備的全球訪問量恢復到2011年以來的最高水平，扭轉了延續兩年的衰落勢頭。同時，雅虎網站來自電腦用戶的訪問量在今年8月、9月和10月超過谷歌，在comScore的網站訪問量50強排行榜上排名第一。移動訪問量的增長也十分可觀，月度活躍用戶超過4億，較2012年底的2億大大增長。

Yet that isn't doing much for Yahoo's revenue. In the third quarter, display revenue fell 7%, year on year, to $470 million as search revenue dropped 8% to $435 million. Only 'other revenue,' which includes royalties from Alibaba, rose 5% to $234 million. For the nine months ended Sept. 30, display and search revenue were down 10% and 9%, respectively, with other revenue up 8%.

然而這種情況對於雅虎的營收並沒有起到太大作用。雅虎第三季度展示廣告收入同比下降7%，至4.7億美元，搜索業務收入下降8%，至4.35億美元。只有包括阿里巴巴支付的許可費用在內的“其他收入”增加5%，至2.34億美元。截至今年9月30日的九個月，展示廣告和搜索業務收入分別下降10%和9%，其他收入增長8%。

Consensus estimates for 2014 suggest a slight improvement, showing display and search revenue roughly flat and up 7%, respectively. Ebitda, meanwhile, is expected to increase by a modest 3.7%. Adding more personalized user data to its Tumblr ad inventory could be one source of gains, Pivotal says. But it remains to be seen if the turnaround is real.

對2014年的一致估計顯示雅虎的情況將略有好轉，展示廣告收入持平，搜索業務收入增長7%。與此同時，息稅折舊攤銷前收益預計將小幅增長3.7%。Pivotal說，雅虎在Tumblr廣告目錄中加入更爲個性化的用戶數據可能是一個收益來源。但好轉能否真正實現還有待觀察。

Analysts say Yahoo's core business should be valued at around four to six times 2014 Ebitda -- more like a print media asset. It is difficult to say where that business trades now because so much rests on Alibaba's IPO. Estimates of Alibaba's value range from $100 billion to $190 billion. To complicate calculations, Yahoo must sell 40% of its stake at the IPO, with the rest to be sold at its discretion, theoretically for more if Alibaba's stock rises.

分析師們說，雅虎的核心業務價值約爲2014年息稅折舊攤銷前收益的四到六倍――更類似於平面媒體的估值。很難判斷這塊業務目前的價值，因爲很大程度上將取決於阿里巴巴的IPO。阿里巴巴的估值在1,000億美元至1,900億美元。令計算更復雜的是，雅虎必須在IPO之時出售其所持股份的40%，其餘部分由雅虎自己決定是否出售，理論上如果阿里巴巴股價上漲，則能以更高價格賣出。

In one scenario, UBS estimates Alibaba will list at a $100 billion valuation, which will then climb to $160 billion.

其中一種設想的情況是，瑞銀(UBS)估計阿里巴巴將以1,000億美元的估值上市，隨後將攀升至1,600億美元。

Using this assumption, if Yahoo sold the remaining 60% of its stake at that price, its total after-tax proceeds could be $20.3 billion, or about $20 a share. Yahoo's 35% stake in Yahoo Japan adds roughly another $7 a share after tax.

按照這種假想，如果雅虎以上漲後的阿里巴巴股價出售其所持的其餘60%股份，其稅後總收益可能達到203億美元，約合每股20美元。雅虎所持的35%雅虎日本(Yahoo Japan)股份會讓每股稅收收益再增加大約7美元。

Taking that $27 and net cash of $3.11 a share on Yahoo's books at the end of the third quarter off the current share price leaves $10.96 a share. That implies a $11.1 billion valuation for Yahoo's core business, or 7.1 times 2014 Ebitda -- pricey relative to analyst models. And that likely understates the multiple, since Alibaba's high-margin royalty payments would need to be factored out of Yahoo's Ebitda.

從雅虎當前股價中減去上面計算出來的27美元以及雅虎第三季度末賬面上的每股現金3.11美元，得到的是每股10.96美元。這意味着雅虎核心業務估值爲1,110億美元，以2014年預期息稅折舊攤銷前收益計算的市盈率爲7.1倍――相比分析師假定的情況來說過高了。而且這還有可能低估了這個倍數，因爲阿里巴巴支付的高利潤許可費需要從雅虎的息稅折舊攤銷前收益中剔除。

Investors can only guess at what Yahoo will look like underneath its designer wardrobe. But chances are it will look more like Gannett than Google.

投資者只能猜測雅虎光彩奪目的外表下面是何種真面目。但它很可能更類似於媒體公司Gannett，而不是像谷歌這樣的互聯網公司。