業界內個人電腦銷量預測的骯髒內幕

Apple called BS last week to the U.S. Mac sales numbers IDC and Gartner sent to clients two weeks earlier, AppleInsider‘s Daniel Eran Dilger reported Saturday. The two market research firms had sales falling. Apple had them growing by “strong double digits[s],” according to the earnings call transcript [see note below].

據AppleInsider網站的丹尼爾·伊蘭·迪爾格上週六報道，蘋果（Apple）在上上週指出，IDC與高德納（Gartner）給出的Mac電腦在美國的銷售數字有誤。這兩家市場調研公司稱，Mac電腦在美銷售出現下滑，而蘋果收益電話會議的文字記錄顯示，公司稱Mac電腦在美銷售增長強勁，“增幅高達兩位數”。

It’s not the first time Gartner and IDC have been caught with their methodological pants down. In November 2010 Asymco’s Horace Dediu was aghast to discover a 77 million unit discrepancy in their mobile phone data — data he depends on to draw his famous charts and graphs.

這不是高德納和IDC第一次被人發現方法論錯誤。2010年11月，Asymco的賀拉斯o德迪烏驚訝的發現，兩者的移動電話銷量數據差額高達7700萬臺，而德迪烏著名的圖表正是基於該數據繪製。

“Our methodologies, which are continually updated and improved, are among our most valuable assets,” according to Gartner, which goes on to describe them in the vaguest possible terms:

高德納稱：“我們的方法論在不斷更新和完善，它是我們最寶貴的財富之一。”該公司繼續極爲含糊其辭的描述道：

“Once an objective is set, analysts gather information through formal and informal surveys of IT users, technology providers and investors, business professionals, academicians and other researchers.” [From Inside Gartner Research]

“一旦目標設定，分析師會通過向IT用戶、技術提供商和投資者、商務人士、學者和其他研究人員發放正式或非正式的調查來收集信息。”[摘自“高德納內部研究”]

It’s even squishier than that, according to a former IDC researcher who spent eight years with the company in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

而據一名IDC公司的前研究員稱，銷售預測比上面說的更不可靠。該研究員曾於20世紀90年代末至21世紀初在IDC工作了八年。

After I posted a story about the 77 million missing phones, he described in some detail how IDC goes about estimating sales.

我發佈了一篇關於“移動電話銷量數據相差7700萬臺”的文章後，這名研究員給我透露了一些IDC公司如何進行銷量預測的細節。

According to my source, who for legal reasons asked that his name not be used, here’s how it worked:

出於法律方面的考慮，這位線人要求匿名。他的講述如下：

“Philip, I know something about this sausage-making process, as I used to do it for IDC. In 3Q98, I did a cross-section, an excavation, if you like, of our methodology, putting a crowbar to it and snapping it into fragments. It was the PC count, but the methodology is the same for phones.

“菲利普，我曾在IDC公司從事銷量預測，所以對其中的骯髒內幕有所瞭解。1998年第3季度，我對公司的方法論進行了一番深入挖掘。儘管我做的調查是有關個人電腦銷量預測，但手機銷量預測的方法論是一樣的。 ”

“In most quarters, the team starts with OEM guidance and, depending on the country, does some by-country cross-checking. However, for the US team, we just did some systematic adjustments to the vendor guidance and called it a day. For example, we knew that lots of Macs were transshipped from Miami to Latin America. So, we took some percentage of Macs (Apple, of course, never helped; in fact, even objected, saying it wasn’t so) and reallocated them from the US to a smattering of Latin countries, effectively modeling the market but with no low-level data.

“在大部分季度，團隊先以原始設備製造商的銷量指引爲基礎，並根據國家的不同，按國別進行交叉檢驗。然而，對於美國市場，我們只對供應商的銷量指引做些系統性的調整就算完事。比如，我們知道許多Mac電腦是通過邁阿密轉運到拉丁美洲的。因此，我們將美國市場的Mac電腦銷量減去一定比例（當然，蘋果從來沒有幫過忙；事實上該公司甚至反對這種做法，稱實情並非如此），由此得出來的銷量就被安在幾個拉美國家頭上。這有效地模擬了市場狀況，但缺乏底層數據支持。”

“So, in 3Q98, I analyzed the ‘choke points,’ those parts of the supply chain where the channel narrowed enough to get a definitive count. At the time, it was OS, processor, graphics, and hard drive. As I recall, I found 20 million processors with no homes. The market at the time was about 100 million, so this was a 20% discrepancy.

“因此，在1998年第3季度，我分析了‘瓶頸’，即供應鏈中渠道窄到足以得到最終數字的部分。當時，“瓶頸”是操作系統、處理器、顯卡和硬盤驅動器。我記得，我發現多出了2000萬臺處理器銷量。而當時的市場容量大概是1億臺，所以差額高達20%。”

“The process that ensued was a marvel of obfuscation. The leader of the Tracker team figured out a way to rationalize away all the extra units (e.g., multiprocessor servers, inventory, speculation, etc.). It was politically impossible to force the extra units on the regions because it would introduce gross distortions to the historical trends.

“隨後發生的事情簡直堪稱矇混過關的典範。Tracker小組的組長想出了辦法，讓所有多出的處理器銷量變得名正言順（比如多處理器服務器、庫存、投機炒作等）。但多出的銷量強加到這些類目上會有大問題，因爲這將嚴重扭曲歷史趨勢。 ”

“So, the mantra became, preserve the growth rates; to hell with the actual numbers. Even the growth rates are fiction. The fudge is in the “others” category, which is used as a plug to make the numbers work out. In fairness, we did do survey work, calling around, and attending white box conferences and venues to try to get a feel for that market, but in the end, the process was political. I used to tell customers which parts of the data they could trust, essentially the major vendors by form factor and region. The rest was garbage.

“所以，最後就成了保留增速數據，別管實際數字。而即便增長率數據其實也是瞎編。關鍵在於“其它”類目，每當有平不了的數據就往“其它”裏塞。平心而論，我們確實做了調查工作，四處打電話，參加白盒測試會議與聚會，試圖感受市場情況，但說到底，整個過程並不靠譜。我曾告訴客戶他們能信任哪部分數據，基本上也就是各大廠商的形狀因素和地區數據。其它數據都是垃圾。”

“The industry itself was aware of these issues, but agreed to maintain the fiction because it was convenient. Most vendors kept their own numbers, but referred to IDC for public purposes. Thing is, real executives got real compensation based on our numbers. There were other games played, but that’s for another time.

“該行業本身意識到了這些問題，但選擇了繼續瞎編，因爲這太省事了。大多數供應商自己統計了相關數據，但在公開場合都使用IDC公司給出的數字。關鍵就在於，那些高管們獲得的薪酬是基於我們給出的銷售數字。這裏頭還有其它一些把戲，不過這些下次再說吧。”

“The question always came down to, are these fiduciary numbers that investment managers charged with keeping money for widows and orphans rely on, or are they just inside baseball for the industry to squabble over and not all that important? That question has never been answered.”

“問題最終歸結爲，這些預測數據到底是那些爲孤兒寡母理財的投資經理們進行投資決策的依據，還是隻是行業內部自說自話的產物，根本無足輕重？這個問題一直沒有答案。”

[Note: The language Apple CFO Luca Maestri used in his prepared remarks -- "We achieved strong double digit Mac growth across many countries, including the U.S., Canada, Mexico, the UK, Germany, France, Australia, China, India and the Middle-East" -- is open to interpretation. Does the growth rate apply to the set of countries listed, or to every element in the set?

[注：在事先準備的發言中，蘋果首席財務官盧卡o馬斯特利的原話是：“Mac銷量在許多國家實現了強勁的兩位數增長，包括美國、加拿大、墨西哥、英國、德國、法國、澳大利亞、中國、印度以及中東。”這句話可以有不同的解釋。馬斯特利所說的兩位數增長，是指上述所有國家的Mac總銷量，還是指在以上各個國家的銷量？

Apple spokesman Steve Dowling confirmed Monday that the growth was double digit (i.e. 10% or more) in each of those markets.]

蘋果發言人史蒂夫·道林本週一證實，Mac銷量在上述各市場都實現了兩位數增長（即增長率達到10%或10%以上）。]