蒼茫大海上的風車 海上風電的德國教訓

For years, Germany's ambitious effort to generate bountiful electricity with wind farms rising from the deep blue sea has been drowning in red ink. Now, investors like Blackstone Group LP and suppliers like Siemens AG are looking to buck that trend.

多年來德國雄心勃勃的開發海上風電的計劃舉步維艱，一直處於虧損之中。現在像黑石集團(Blackstone)這樣的投資者以及西門子(Siemens AG)等供應商則希望扭轉這一勢頭。

Offshore wind holds enormous potential for plentiful, environmentally friendly energy because the open sea is almost always windy. But ever since Germany started planning investments in the sector -- around the start of the century -- obstacles have piled up, including a lack of component suppliers and the absence of equipment needed to link turbines to the national power grid. Even the ships needed for construction out in open water were unavailable.

由於大海上幾乎總是有風，因此海風具有開發豐富且環保電力資源的巨大潛力。但自從德國在本世紀初開始規劃海上風電項目投資以來，遭遇了重重阻力，包括缺少配件供應商、沒有連接風力渦輪和國家電網所需的設備。即便是在開放水域建設所需的船隻也無從獲得。

As a result, early offshore-wind projects blew through budgets and schedules because developers had to invest billions of dollars in ports, special barges and power connections.

因此早期的海上風電項目預算嚴重超標，投產也被延遲，因爲開發商需要爲港口、專用船隻及電力連接設備投入數十億美元。

Siemens, the world's largest manufacturer of offshore wind turbines, and its partners concede they underestimated the challenges behind offshore wind. The financial fallout from these challenges was highlighted last week, when Siemens said it booked 128 million euros ($171 million) in new charges related to connecting offshore wind farms to the power grid. It blamed unexpectedly high costs for shipping, installing and starting up grid components.

全球第一大海上風電渦輪生產商西門子及其合作伙伴承認，他們低估了海上風電項目背後的挑戰。上週這些挑戰對財務的影響得到了印證。西門子表示，公司新計入1.28億歐元（合1.71億美元）與連接海上風電場和電網相關的支出。西門子稱運輸、安裝以及啓動渦輪組件的成本高出了預期。

They say, however, that they managed to learn new skills in the process.

不過該公司表示，在這一過程中他們學到了新的技能。

Private-equity firm Blackstone and German project developer WindMW have invested 1.2 billion euros in the Meerwind -- German for 'sea wind' -- project, more than 50 miles (about 85 kilometers) off Germany's coast on the North Sea. Meerwind, which counts 80 massive Siemens turbines, is expected to start delivering electricity late this year -- about a year behind schedule.

私募股權公司黑石集團和德國項目開發商WindMW已在這個位於北海、距離德國海岸50多英里（約合85公里）的海上風電項目上投入了12億歐元。這個名爲Meerwind的項目共有80個大型西門子渦輪機，預計將在今年底開始發電，比原定時間推遲了一年左右。

building Meerwind proved daunting, despite its relatively shallow waters. Engineers had to anchor foundations for turbines, transformers and converter stations more than 130 feet beneath the surface, which proved far more difficult than expected.

雖然處於淺水，但Meerwind的建設異常艱難。工程師必須將渦輪機、變壓器和換流站的底座固定在水面以下130多英尺處。這個過程的難度被證明比預期大得多。

Another problem was wiring the system to move gigawatts from the sea to consumers on land. This requires offshore converter stations the size of factories, which Siemens builds at a price of around 1 billion euros each.

另一個問題是給這個系統裝電線，以便將海上發的電輸送給陸地的消費者。這需要建設規模有工廠那麼大的海上換流站。每建一個換流站花掉西門子大約10億歐元。

Siemens says delays in manufacturing and preparing the converters have cost it roughly 900 million euros in the past two years, including the latest charges announced Thursday. The company finally installed the last two stations in July.

西門子稱，過去兩年在製造和準備換流站方面的拖延使公司損失近9億歐元，其中包括週四宣佈計提的支出。西門子在7月份終於安裝完了最後兩個換流站。

Tim Dawidowsky, chief executive of Siemens's electricity-transmission unit, said Siemens has nearly doubled the amount of time allotted to build offshore converter stations to five years.

西門子輸電子公司的首席執行長Tim Dawidowsky說，西門子爲建造離岸換流站安排的時間增至五年，延長了近一倍。

Despite its challenges, wind power remains a crucial element in Germany's strategy to replace nuclear and fossil-fuel plants with more environmental sources. The country's exit from nuclear energy was speeded up after a tsunami crippled Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant in March 2011. Germany closed eight of its oldest nuclear plants immediately following the disaster and plans to close the other nine by 2022.

儘管存在上述挑戰，但在德國用更環保電力來源取代核電廠和化石燃料電廠的策略中，風電仍佔有重要地位。在2011年3月海嘯導致日本福島核電站發生事故後，德國加快了退出核電的步伐。福島核電站事故發生後，德國立即關閉了八座最老舊的核電站，並計劃到2022年關閉餘下九座核電站。

Other wind farms, including the Nordsee Ost project developed by German utility RWE AG, are under construction.

其他風電站在建設中，包括德國公共事業公司RWE AG開發的Nordsee Ost項目。

Last year, renewable energies accounted for 24% of Germany's power generation. And with a share of more than one third of that, wind energy is by far the biggest generator of 'green' electricity in the country, according to energy lobby BDEW.

去年，可再生能源發電量佔德國發電量的24%。能源業遊說團體BDEW說，風電佔德國可再生能源發電量的比例超過三分之一，是德國“綠色”電力的最大來源。

Offshore wind only accounts for a fraction -- less than 1% -- of the Germany's renewable-energy generation, but the densely populated country already has allocated its most promising onshore wind spots, leading investors to look to the sea.

海上風力發電在德國再生能源發電中僅佔很小的一部分──不到1%，然而在這個人口密集的國家，最有前景的陸上風力發電項目已經瓜分完畢，所以投資者們只好將目光投向海上風力發電。

To date, Germany has an offshore capacity of around 630 megawatts of offshore wind power and plans to boost that tenfold by 2020 to 6.5 gigawatts. By 2030, it aims for offshore capacity of 15 gigawatts.

迄今爲止，德國的海上風力發電量約爲630兆瓦，德國計劃使海上風力發電能力到2020年提高到10倍，達到6.5千兆瓦；到2030年達到15千兆瓦。

Technological challenges behind offshore wind may be shrinking, but the economics remain daunting. One kilowatt-hour of electricity generated offshore costs up to 18 European cents, compared with 11 cents for solar power and 8 cents for onshore wind. Coal and gas plants generate electricity for as little as 4 cents per kwh.

海上風力發電在技術上日趨成熟，但從經濟角度來考慮，仍令人躊躇。海上風力發電的成本最高可達0.18歐元/度，而太陽能發電和陸上風力發電的成本分佈爲0.11歐元和0.08歐元，煤炭和天然氣發電的成本則低達0.04歐元。

'Long-term subsidy programs need to be in place to cover this gap,' said Magnus Dale, senior analyst at consultancy IHS Energy in Paris.

諮詢機構IHS Energy的高級分析師戴爾(Magnus Dale)表示，要彌補以上差距需要有長期補貼項目。

Germany is offering long-term support to the sector, guaranteeing subsidies for offshore wind farms for up to 12 years, despite having slashed its capacity target through 2030 by 40% as part of an effort to curb spiraling costs.

德國正在向該行業提供長期支持，爲海上風電場提供最長12年的補貼，儘管該國已經把到2030年的裝機容量目標下調了40%，以遏制不斷上升的成本。

The country still expects total renewables subsidies to rise to around 24 billion euros this year, a bill that electricity consumers are paying through a surcharge on their power bills.

德國仍預計，今年可再生能源補貼總額將升至大約240億歐元，而這筆錢將由電力消費者買單──通過額外收取電費的形式。

The industry believes that further industrialization and technological progress will help reduce the cost of offshore wind.

該行業認爲，工業化的進一步發展和科技的進步，將有助於削減海上風力發電的成本。

Michael Hannibal, head of Siemens's wind-power division, said the offshore industry aims to cut costs by around 40% by 2020. This would still be around 35% higher than onshore wind today -- and 2.7 times more expensive than coal and gas -- but more reductions are expected to follow. To achieve this, Siemens is looking to develop bigger and more efficient wind turbines.

西門子風電部門的負責人漢尼拔(Michael Hannibal)稱，海上業務的目標是到2020年將成本降低40%左右。屆時這一成本水平仍將比現今的陸地風電成本要高35%左右，比煤炭和天然氣發電成本高出1.7倍，但是預計未來還將繼續下降。爲了實現這一目標，西門子正在考慮研發更大、更高效的風力渦輪機。

Siemens's biggest wind generator has a capacity of 6 megawatts but the company needs to begin looking at 8 MWs, said Mr. Hannibal. Rivals Areva SA and Vestas A/S already offer 8 MW units.

漢尼拔稱，西門子最大風力發電機的裝機容量是6兆瓦，但是該公司需要開始考慮8兆瓦的機組。西門子的競爭對手阿海琺(Areva SA)和維斯塔斯(Vestas A/S)已經有8兆瓦的產品了。

Over the long-term, the goal is to bring down cost, so that offshore wind can compete with coal and gas, Mr. Hannibal said.

漢尼拔稱，長期目標是降低成本，使得海上風力發電可以與煤、氣發電競爭。