日本充分就業爲何未讓僱員受益

Something odd is going on with Japan’s labour market. Unemployment is at 3.7 per cent. Recently, it has been as low as 3.5 per cent, considered by some economists to be pretty much full employment. (The uptick is only because the previously discouraged are flooding back to work.)

日本勞動力市場正在上演一些奇怪的事情。目前失業率爲3.7%。最近，失業率最低曾降至3.5%，一些經濟學家認爲這幾乎稱得上完全就業。（失業率上升只是因爲以前那些就業意願喪失者正涌入勞動大軍。）

The trend is being helped by demographics, which sees more baby-boomers retiring than millennials starting out. For every 100 people looking, there are 110 jobs on offer, the best ratio in 20 years. In some industries, including truck driving and healthcare, employers cannot find workers for love nor money. building site foremen are in desperately short supply as construction companies work overtime to rebuild the tsunami-devastated coast and prepare for Tokyo’s 2020 Olympic Games. One restaurant chain specialising in beef-and-rice dishes was forced to close a 10th of its roughly 2,000 restaurants this summer because it could not find enough staff.

人口狀況助推了這種趨勢，生於嬰兒潮時期的退休人員數量現在超過了開始就業的千禧一代。現在每100個求職者有110個工作崗位可選擇，這是20年來的最佳比率。在一些行業（包括卡車駕駛和醫療），僱主無論如何都招不到人。建築工地工頭嚴重短缺，因爲建築公司在加班加點，重建被海嘯摧毀的海岸，以及爲東京2020年奧運會做準備。今年夏季，由於無法僱到足夠多的員工，一家專營牛肉飯的連鎖餐廳被迫將其約2000家門店關閉了十分之一。

You would have thought that wage inflation would be going crazy as a result. Unfortunately for Japan, you would be wrong. The government has badgered companies, which are making record profits, to share the love. Some have responded with modest wage increases, but not enough to keep pace with prices, which are rising thanks to monetary stimulus and a 3 percentage-point increase in sales tax.

你原本會認爲，薪資因此會瘋狂上漲。不幸的是，對於日本而言，你錯了。企業正賺着創紀錄的利潤，日本政府一直追着要求它們分享成果。一些企業適度上調了薪資，但不足以跟上通脹的速度，由於貨幣刺激以及消費稅上調3個百分點，日本物價一直在上漲。

It is just possible that labour-market tightness is finally filtering through. In July cash earnings for regular employees rose a hefty 2.6 per cent, the fastest increase for 17 years. But much of this has come in cash bonuses, not in the base pay that gives workers lasting confidence.

可能勞動力市場的緊張最終在產生影響。今年7月，正式員工的現金收入大增2.6%，爲17年來最高。但很多是以現金獎金的形式發放，而非讓員工獲得長久信心的基本工資。

Japanese wages do not seem to be responding to normal market pressures. Why not? The conundrum has its roots in the altered structure of the labour market. Contrary to common perception, Japan has an exceptionally flexible workforce. Outside the ranks of the protected “job-for-lifers” – a much rarer breed these days – nearly 40 per cent of workers are about as flexible as you get. They work in poorly paid jobs for hourly rates. Benefits are all but non-existent. For most of these workers, sometimes referred to as the “precariat”, unemployment is a mere “sayonara” away.

日本薪資似乎不會對一般的市場壓力做出迴應。爲什麼呢？這一難題植根於勞動力市場的結構變化。與普遍看法相反，日本的勞動力大軍特別靈活。除了受到保護的終身工作者（這在當今已是相當罕見了），近40%的勞動者都非常靈活。他們從事薪資較低的工作，領取時薪。福利幾乎不存在。對於多數此類勞動者（有時被稱爲無產階級）而言，失業近在咫尺。

Of course, Japan is hardly alone in seeing the bifurcation of its jobs market. Non- or semi-skilled work commands a lower price in a world where technology and cheap foreign labour are ready substitutes. In Japan, though, this is proving a particularly thorny problem. For its reflationary experiment to work, wages must begin to rise in line with inflation. But the casualisation of the labour force is short-circuiting that process. Moreover, people in the precariat are less likely to marry and have children. If Japan is to solve its demographic problem, it will have to tackle the labour issue.

當然，日本很難說是唯一一個就業市場出現這種兩極分化的國家。在技術和外國廉價勞動力隨時可充當替補的情況下，從事非技術或半技術工作所能要求的薪資自然較低。然而在日本，事實證明這是一個尤其棘手的問題。要讓通貨再膨脹發生作用，薪資必須開始與通脹同步上漲。但勞動力中的散工現象正在讓這個過程短路。另外，屬於無產階級的人們更不可能結婚和生育子女。如果日本要解決其人口問題，它必須解決這個勞動力問題。

What can be done? At least three things. The first is to narrow the gap between over-protected permanent workers and under-protected non-permanent ones. Akira Kawamoto of Keio University argues that coddling one section of the workforce does not serve Japan’s interests well. Absolute job security stifles risk-taking, he says, something that Japan desperately needs. Simply making life less cushy for permanent workers is not likely to do any good on its own.

日本可以採取何種措施？至少有3項措施。首先是縮窄受到過度保護的固定員工和沒有得到充分保護的非固定員工之間的差距。慶應義塾大學(Keio University)的川本明(Akira Kawamoto)指出，嬌慣某一部分勞動者不太符合日本的利益。他表示，絕對的就業安全會扼殺冒險行爲，而這種冒險是日本現在亟需的。但僅僅讓固定員工的生活變得不那麼安逸，可能不會帶來任何好處。

If adding to Japan’s aggregate demand is the goal, the big push should be on improving the wages and conditions of temporary workers. Crucially, it should be made far easier for them to migrate to permanent jobs and for workers of all descriptions to move more freely between companies. An open, fluid labour market would help cross-fertilise ideas and allocate resources to productive parts of the economy.

如果擴大日本總需求是目標的話，那麼日本應大舉改善臨時工的薪資和工作條件。重要的是，日本應讓他們更容易轉入固定工作，並讓所有類型的員工更自由地在企業間跳槽。一個開放且流動的勞動力市場將有利於催生更多創意，並將資源配置到具有生產效率的經濟領域。

Second, immigration policy needs to be bolder. True, allowing in lots of foreign workers might put downward pressure on wages, at least initially. Yet there are some jobs that Japanese are simply not prepared to do. If foreigners were brought in, for example, to provide affordable care for children and the elderly, this could free Japanese women to have more fulfilling careers.

其次，移民政策需要更爲大膽。確實，允許大量外國勞動者進入可能會對薪資構成下行壓力，至少一開始會如此。然而，有一些工作是日本人不願意從事的。例如，如果引入外國人爲兒童和老人提供價格實惠的看護服務，那麼這可能會讓日本女性解放出來去從事更有成就感的職業。

That brings us to the third point. Women are flooding into the workforce in unprecedented numbers. Nearly 65 per cent of women aged between 15 and 65 are working, the highest percentage since records began in 1968.

這就要談到第三項措施。空前數量的女性正涌入勞動大軍。近65%的年齡在15歲至65歲之間的女性在工作，爲自1968年有記錄以來最高。

There is a catch. The majority of these jobs are badly paid, part-time or both. Too many companies still view men as the primary wage earner: younger women are there to look pretty and older women to do the drudgery. If Japan is to progress, such attitudes need to change.

這裏存在一個難題。其中大部分工作要麼薪資不高，要麼爲兼職工作，或者兩者兼具。太多企業仍然將男人視爲主要僱傭勞動者：較爲年輕的女性是爲了充當“花瓶”，而年紀較大的女性則去做那些髒活累活。如果日本要進步的話，這種態度需要改變。

Legislation can help. One simple measure would be on tax. At present the head of a household, usually male, can claim a dependent tax exemption for his wife so long as she earns less than about $10,000 a year. Neutral tax treatment of second earners would remove this disincentive, encouraging married women to pursue full-time careers. And if the men did not like it, they could always stay at home and look after the kids.

立法可以起到一定幫助。一項簡單的措施是稅收立法。目前，戶主（通常爲男性）可以爲妻子申請贍養免稅，只要妻子的年收入不足1萬美元。給予家庭中第二賺錢者中性稅收待遇，將消除這種抑制工作積極性的因素，從而鼓勵已婚女性從事全職工作。如果男性不喜歡，他們可以呆在家裏照顧孩子。