長城汽車需要新動力 Great Wall Motor new energy needed

When Hong Kong and China were reunified in 1997, the mantra was “one country, two systems”. Companies with listings in both jurisdictions are still feeling the consequences.

1997年香港迴歸中國時，“一國兩制”的說法不絕於耳。在中國內地和香港兩地上市的公司至今仍能感受到這一原則的影響。

Great Wall Motor is a good example. The Chinese carmaker is to sell up to 387m new China-listed A shares to raise $2.7bn. The proceeds will go towards research and development, and component production for “new energy” vehicles, such as hybrids and electric cars. It lags behind peers in that market.

長城汽車(Great Wall Motor)就是一個很好的例子。這家中國汽車製造商將新發行至多3.87億股A股，籌資27億美元。籌資所得將用於“新能源”汽車（例如混合動力汽車和電動汽車）的研發和零部件生產。該公司在新能源汽車領域落後於同行。

A shares closed up 5 per cent on the news. But Great Wall also has a Hong Kong listing; its H shares fell about 13 per cent, leaving them almost 40 per cent below the issue price.

受此消息影響，長城汽車A股昨日收漲5%。但該公司還在香港上市；其H股下跌約13%，收盤價較上述發行價低了近40%。

Hong Kong may be deemed a more rational market, based on greater institutional involvement (and less government intervention), but even the H-share drop seems mild. Trading in the shares was stopped on June 19, meaning Great Wall sat out a 10 per cent drop in the H-share index. And there are other reasons — beyond the dilution — to be cautious. May sales were disappointingly soft; there was no rebound in June and pricing has suffered as international brands offer discounts.

香港可能被視爲是一個更理性的市場，依據是機構參與度較大（而且政府幹預較少），但對長城汽車來說，即便是其H股的跌幅也顯得較爲溫和。6月19日，長城汽車股票停牌，這意味着，該公司未受H股指數下跌10%牽連。除了股權被稀釋以外，投資者還有其他理由保持謹慎。該公司5月份銷量疲軟，令人失望；6月份銷量不見反彈，同時由於跨國汽車品牌提供價格折扣，該公司的產品定價存在壓力。

These trends may worsen in the short term as prices have little scope to rise. Great Wall has new models due soon but recent launches have failed to bolster volumes. Earnings forecasts have been coming down: estimates for this year and next have dropped nearly one-tenth each since early June.

短期來看，這些趨勢可能會加劇，因爲價格幾乎沒有上漲空間。長城汽車很快將推出新車型，但其近期推出的車型未能提振銷量。該公司的盈利預期被下調：自6月初以來，對今明兩年的盈利預期已分別下調近十分之一。

New investment is critical for Great Wall to find growth. It is backing the right product: China’s state council wants unit sales of new energy vehicles to grow nearly 70-fold to 5m by 2020. Great Wall’s component investment implies 500,000 units by 2018.

新投資對於長城汽車實現增長至關重要。這些資金將投向正確的產品：中國國務院希望，到2020年時，新能源汽車銷量達到500萬輛，較目前水平增加近70倍。從長城汽車零部件生產投資計劃來看，到2018年時其新能源汽車產量將達到50萬輛。

Rewards may be some time in coming. At least the shares are not egregiously overvalued; even the more racy A shares trade at 10 times 2016 earnings forecasts. The cheaper H shares closed at a mere 6 times.

獲得回報可能需要一段時間。至少，該公司股價沒有被過分高估：以2016年預期盈利計算，即便是其更具活力的A股的市盈率也僅爲10倍；價格較低的H股的預期市盈率就更低了，只有6倍。