數字時代的雙城記 A tale of two coasts digitally divide

To visit Silicon Valley these days is to take a rocket ride into the future. The breathless talk is of another surge in technological innovation, the rapid development of virtual reality, driverless cars, 3D printing, robots, personalised medicines, the application of artificial intelligence to masses of data and of further disruption in almost every nook of the economy.

如今造訪硅谷，就猶如坐上火箭快速穿越到未來。人們慷慨激昂地談論着新一輪技術革新浪潮，虛擬現實、無人駕駛汽車、3D打印、機器人、個人化醫療的快速發展，人工智能在大數據上的應用，還有經濟中幾乎每一個角度所遭到的深刻顛覆。

It is an exhilarating, disorienting and at times downright scary experience.

這是一種令人興奮、迷惘，有時又十分可怕的體驗。

Turning on the television while visiting Silicon Valley, in a bid to catch up with the presidential election campaign, is to crash back to Earth with a thud. The talk is of income inequality, the collapse of the middle class, the banning of Muslim visitors and the building of walls to stop immigrants pouring into the US.

而假如你在硅谷時打開電視，想看看美國總統大選進行得怎麼樣了，你就會砰地一聲跌回地球。電視上談論的都是收入不平等、垮掉的中產階級、禁止穆斯林入境以及建造隔離牆以阻止移民涌入美國。

The optimism of forward-looking West Coast entrepreneurs clashes with the pessimism of the backward-looking East Coast politicians. That coastal divide is particularly stark in the US but it exists metaphorically in many other countries, too. At its simplest, it is a tussle within ourselves, both as consumers and as citizens.

目光長遠的西海岸企業家的樂觀與保守的東海岸政客的悲觀形成鮮明對比。兩個海岸之間的這種分歧在美國尤其明顯，但從隱喻意義上說，它也在其他許多國家存在。簡單來說，這是我們自身內部作爲消費者與作爲公民這兩層身份之間的鬥爭。

The techno-optimists of California promise a further bonanza for our inner consumer, largely powered by the supercomputer smartphones in our pockets. They aim to dissolve remaining inefficiencies in just about every consumer transaction, in the same way as Uber has revolutionised the taxi trade and Airbnb has challenged the hotel industry, throwing up new economic opportunities in the process. “You can become a driver in an hour. You can become a hotel owner in a day,” marvels one venture capitalist.

加州的技術樂觀派認爲，我們身上作爲消費者的這一部分將迎來進一步繁榮，很大程度上藉助於我們口袋裏具有超級計算機功能的智能手機。他們希望消除幾乎所有消費者交易中剩餘的低效問題，與優步(Uber)革命性的出租車服務交易和Airbnb挑戰酒店業的方式如出一轍，並在該過程中帶來新的經濟機遇。一位風險資本家驚歎道：“你可以在一個小時內成爲一名司機。你可以在一天內成爲一個酒店業主。”

By flying balloons, unmanned aircraft and satellites over the remoter parts of the world, Google and Facebook are also planning to connect everyone on the planet to the internet, creating the possibility of a global digital marketplace for products, services and ideas. “The fact that we may soon provide all human knowledge to the entire population of the world is a pretty big step forward,” says one tech executive. More excitable commentators predict the era of the mass production of ideas, of a “second renaissance”, of the flowering of a global civilisation.

通過在世界偏遠之地發射氣球、無人飛行器和衛星，谷歌(Google)和Facebook也在計劃讓地球上所有人都能接入互聯網，從而有可能爲產品、服務和想法創造一個全球性的數字市場。一位科技業高管表示：“我們可能很快向世界所有人提供人類的全部知識，這是相當大的進步。”更爲興奮的評論員們則預測一個思想紛呈的時代，一個“第二次文藝復興”、全球文明昌盛的時代即將來臨。

But when the Silicon Valley crowd pause for breath, even they worry about some of the consequences of this technological turmoil: the impact on so many traditional jobs, the erosion of employment rights and the unequal distribution of the fruits of technology.

但是當硅谷人停下來歇口氣的時候，就連他們也擔心這種技術革命帶來的一些後果：對衆多傳統工作職位的影響、對就業權利的侵蝕以及技術發展成果的不公平分配。

One long-time tech observer says Silicon Valley’s creative destruction will lead to a cruel world for many “throw-away citizens” in the US and Europe who cannot adapt. “Donald Trump has his finger on the lurking, deep-seated fear of the throwaway citizen,” he says.

一個長期關注科技行業的觀察人士表示，硅谷的創造性破壞將讓美歐許多無法適應的“一次性公民”(throw-away citizen)面對一個殘酷世界。他說：“唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)明白‘一次性公民’潛在的深層次擔憂。”

Silicon Valley may have an image as a haven of libertarianism but some are surprisingly keen on the idea of greater social insurance — such as a “citizen’s” or “basic” income — to be funded by a digital dividend from tech profits.

硅谷可能有着自由主義天堂的形象，但令人意外的是，一些人非常贊成利用來自科技業利潤的“數字紅利”來加強社會保障（比如“公民的”或“基本的”收入）。

Darian Shirazi is one young tech entrepreneur who supports the idea. “We have a small technological aristocracy and a middle class struggling to catch up with the demands of a more efficient economy. Basic income can bring a baseline and offer freedom to those trapped by our new economy.”

達裏安•設拉子(Darian Shirazi)是一位支持上述觀點的年輕科技創業家。“我們有一小羣科技新貴和一個很難滿足更高效經濟的要求的中產階級羣體。基本收入能夠提供基本生活保障，解放那些被新經濟所困的人。”

Angry voters in rich societies clearly feel that politicians duped them about the gains of globalisation over the past 30 years. Although benefiting massively as consumers, many voters have lost out as workers, as jobs have shifted abroad and incomes have stagnated. The tech revolution only compounds the upheaval, threatening the second great disruption of our lifetimes.

富裕社會的憤怒選民們顯然覺得，關於全球化的成果，30年來政客們一直在欺騙他們。儘管作爲消費者受益匪淺，但許多選民作爲勞動者卻遭受了損失，因爲很多就業機會轉移到國外，而且收入也停滯了。技術革命只是加劇了這種動盪，有可能造成我們一生中的第二次大破壞。

James Manyika, co-head of the McKinsey Global Institute, suggests the picture is far more nuanced. He says each individual has at least five facets: as consumer, worker, citizen, investor and a moral being. “All these have largely worked in convergence before but these technological shifts are creating very different answers today,” he says.

麥肯錫全球研究所(McKinsey Global Institute)聯合主管詹姆斯•馬尼卡(James Manyika)表示，實際情況要微妙得多。他說，每個人都至少有消費者、勞動者、公民、投資者和道德主體這5層身份。他表示：“所有這些身份過去基本上是保持一致的，但如今這些技術變化帶來了截然不同的答案。”

It would be a tragedy if the promise of technology was sideswiped by a neo-Luddite backlash. We need governments to understand these dizzying changes and devise smart regulation that encourages innovation rather than suppresses it. We also need the tech companies to acknowledge the disruption they cause and do far more to benefit all aspects of our lives.

如果技術可能帶來的前景因爲“新盧德派分子”的反彈而被殃及，那將是一場悲劇。我們需要各國政府理解這些令人目眩的變化，並設計聰明的監管法規，鼓勵而非打壓創新。我們還需要科技公司承認它們造成的破壞，付出更大努力讓我們生活的方方面面受益。