NBA進攻革命之千萬不要失誤

Teams just don't turn the ball over all that much anymore. In addition to being the best overall shooting season of the 3-point era, the 2018-19 campaign also has seen teams commit turnovers at the lowest rate they ever have.

NBA球隊的失誤次數正在減少。在2018-19賽季除了有着最多的三分球投射次數，球隊的失誤率也是有史以來最低的。

I'm not even sure I know the answer to that, to tell you the truth,” Popovich said. “We don't do any 'don't turn it over' drills or anything like that.

“說實話，我都不確定我是否知道這個問題的答案，”波波維奇說。“我們從來不做任何類似於'停止失誤'的練習。

We talk a lot about decision-making and time and score on the clock, understanding your role, staying within your abilities, all those sorts of things. So, I think over time people realize how valuable the basketball is, and we just go from there.”

但是，我們確實常常探討關於決策、時間、關鍵時刻得分這類的事情，並且要求要明確自己的角色，做力所能及的事。所以，我認爲時間長了球員們就會知道籃球的價值，這可能就是失誤減少的原因吧。

Oliver pegged turnover rate as being responsible for 25 percent of the variance in offensive efficiency and offensive rebounding for 20 percent, though subsequent detailed analyses have typically settled somewhere around 22 percent or 23 percent for turnovers and 15 to 18 percent for rebounds.

Oliver認爲失誤率造成了進攻效率25%的差別，而進攻籃板的影響對進攻效率造成了20%的差別，儘管隨後詳細的數據分析通常顯示失誤率的影響在22%-23%左右，籃板的影響在15%-18%左右。

So given that avoiding a turnover is considered more valuable than grabbing an offensive rebound, it could be argued that the change in turnover rate has fully canceled out the decline in offensive rebound rate.

所以我們可以看出避免失誤比搶到進攻籃板更爲重要，而且失誤率的改變完全可以抵消掉進攻籃板率的下降。

Shooting (and shot distribution) have been talked about ad nauseam over the years, while numerous observers have noted that teams are increasingly prioritizing getting back in transition defense over chasing offensive rebounds.

投籃和投籃分佈在這幾年十分頻繁地被人們提起。很多觀察員都發現球隊正不斷優先轉換防守，而不是追逐進攻籃板。

It's perhaps not surprising that offensive rebounding is down all over the place. Without the decline in turnovers offsetting that prioritization, though, we likely would not be living in the best offensive environment in the modern history of the NBA.

進攻籃板球的全線下降可能並不令人吃驚。然而，如果沒有失誤的下降抵消這種優先次序，我們可能就不會生活在NBA現代史上最好的進攻環境中了。

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