理查德布蘭森 我如何決定要不要投資一個新項目

This post is in partnership with Entrepreneur. The article below was originally published at .

本文爲與《創業者》雜誌的合作內容，原文最初刊登在網站。

To do, or not to do — that is the question. Business leaders get paid big bucks to make smart, informed decisions about whether or not to take the plunge on a potential venture, yet there is no science or advice anyone can offer that will help new entrepreneurs to make similar choices.

做，還是不做，這是個問題。企業領導人之所以能拿高薪，關鍵就在他們得做出一個個考慮周全的明智抉擇，比如是否要冒險從事某項潛在業務。然而，創業新手在進行類似抉擇時卻沒有什麼科學理論或建議可供參考。

Such decisions could never be programmed into a computer. It’s more like sitting on a jury: All reasonable doubt must be removed before you can pass a verdict one way or the other. (Thankfully, though, corporate decisions seldom involve matters of life and death!) That said, I have found that a few general rules often help me to arrive at a decision within the appropriate timeframe about whether to approve a project.

這類決策永遠也無法編成程序輸入計算機。它更像是參加陪審團，後者要求陪審人員在做出裁定之前必須消除所有合理的懷疑。（令人欣慰的是，企業決策很少涉及企業存亡問題！）不過，我發現了幾條基本原則，能夠經常幫助我較爲及時地決定是否批准某個項目。

For me, first impressions always matter a great deal, but I don’t let that thought process influence my decision-making when it comes to business matters. I’ve learned that even when an idea immediately strikes you as a really good one, you must push aside that first reaction and carefully and objectively weigh the potential new business’s pros and cons. If no significant cons come to mind when you first evaluate an idea, that doesn’t mean that they don’t exist. Almost every startupencounters unforeseen problems, so be sure to devote a lot of time to figuring out what they are and assessing solutions before you move forward — if you learn of a major problem after the launch, you’ll be in a much worse position to deal with it.

對我而言，第一印象一直都是非常重要的，但我不會讓它影響我的商業決策。我發現，就算某個想法能立即讓你的眼前爲之一亮，你也必須把自己的第一反應放在一旁，然後仔細、客觀地衡量這項潛在業務的利弊。即使在初步評估過程中沒有發現任何重大弊端，但這也不能說明這些弊端並不存在。幾乎每一位初創企業的負責人都有自己難以預見的問題，因此，請務必多花點時間來找出這些問題，並在採取行動前對解決方案進行評估。如果你在起步之後才發現重大問題，那麼在處理時就會處於非常被動的地位。

This kind of caution becomes doubly important if everyone on your team is unanimously in favor of going ahead with a project. No idea is perfect, so be on your guard and work hard at exposing the hidden problem areas. Find and address them, and you’ll only build a better business. Avoid making a decision in isolation about whether to launch a venture: You must also consider how the project will affect the overall functioning of your company. Every choice you make as an entrepreneur will impact, to some degree, your ability to explore future opportunities — this is what the experts call the “decision stream.”

如果團隊成員都贊成實施某個項目，這種謹慎態度的重要性就會受到質疑。沒有什麼點子是完美無缺的，因此，請務必提高警惕，並努力探索那些含有隱藏問題的領域，然後找到問題，並予以解決。只有這樣，企業家才能構建更好的企業。對於是否啓動某個項目，不要孤立地做決定，你必須考慮它對自己公司的整體運轉有何影響。作爲負責人，你的每個決定都會或多或少地影響你隨後把握機會的能力——這就是專家們所說的“決策流”。

You might feel that the venture you’re considering might be too good to pass up, but you have to keep in mind how it will affect your other projects down the road. If it appears that now is not be the best time to move forward, consider what risks, if any, there would be in putting the venture on hold for an agreed-upon length of time. In those situations where you cannot take on a project because another is waiting in the wings, think about why one should get the nod and the other not, and what that says about your priorities.

你可能會覺得自己一直在考慮的項目非常好，所以不容錯過。但你必須思考該項目今後會對你的其他項目會產生什麼樣的影響。如果當前似乎並非是採取行動的最佳時機，那麼就你就得考慮一下，在大家都能接受的時間範圍內擱置項目是否有風險，如果有的話，會是什麼樣的風險。如果出現在兩個項目之間舉棋不定的情況，那就想一想，爲什麼要批准這個項目而否定那個項目，以及這樣做是否能體現你的優先事項安排。

Finally, do everything you can to limit your exposure to risk — protect the downside. Wise investors go to great lengths to limit their potential losses when it comes to stock portfolios, and you should employ a similar strategy when setting up a new business.

最後，盡一切可能來降低風險——以免出現不利情況。在股票投資組合當中，明智的投資者都會竭盡全力地去減少潛在的損失，而你在建立一家新公司的時候也應該採取類似的策略。

For example, when I was starting up Virgin Atlantic, the only way I got my business partners at Virgin Records to begrudgingly accept the risks involved in running a new airline was by getting Boeing to agree to buy back our 747 airliner after a year if things didn’t work out as we’d hoped. Ever since then, whenever we are looking into starting up a giant, capital-intensive venture like Virgin Galactic or our upcoming Virgin Cruises, our team always spends a lot of time finding inventive ways to protect the downside.

以我組建維珍大西洋航空公司時的情況爲例，如果要讓我在維珍唱片的那些生意夥伴勉強接受開設新航空公司的風險，唯一的辦法就是和波音達成協議：如果新公司一年後的業績未達到我們的預期，那麼波音將回購賣給我們的波音747飛機。從那時起，只要我們打算建立規模巨大的資本密集型公司，比如維珍銀河或者即將上馬的維珍遊輪，我們的團隊總會花大量時間來尋找獨出心裁的風險規避途徑。

These are just a few tips that I have used to help me make smart business decisions, and I hope that they will help you too. A final hint: If you have the time to take an approach that involves orchestrated procrastination, then do so. Doing more homework on a project is seldom a bad thing — as long as you don’t let the opportunity pass you by!

以上只是一些小竅門，我一直用它們來幫助自己做出明智的商業決策，希望對大家也能有所幫助。最後一點建議：如果你有時間來慢慢梳理整個項目，請一定要這樣做。只要別錯過機會，針對某個項目多做些準備幾乎不會帶來什麼不利影響。（財富中文網）