復星的方舟可靠嗎 Fosun International 40 days to go

Predicting the rain doesn’t count; building arks does. Hong Kong listed Fosun International brings this familiar Buffettism to mind. Fosun’s vessel, built rapidly, is bursting with a menagerie of acquisitions. Styling itself as Asia’s version of Berkshire Hathaway, a storm is brewing that will test Fosun’s seaworthiness.

預測下雨無濟於事；建造方舟才重要。在香港上市的復星國際(Fosun International)令人想起巴菲特的這個法則。復星的快速造船過程是通過大量併購實現的。該公司把自己定位成亞洲版的伯克希爾哈撒韋(Berkshire Hathaway)，一場風暴正在醞釀，它將考驗復星這艘大船的適航能力。

Fosun’s chairman, Guo Guangchang, one of China’s wealthiest men, has not reported for work recently. If his disappearance is only a rumour, Fosun has done little to dispel it. On the contrary, Fosun requested that the stock exchange suspend its shares on Friday, then much later issued only a brief comment saying the Mr Guo is assisting with “judicial enquiries”. The waters are rising fast.

中國最富有的人之一、復星董事長郭廣昌最近沒有上班。如果說他的失聯只是傳言的話，那麼復星幾乎沒有採取措施消除這種傳言。相反，該公司上週五請求證交所停牌，然後拖了很長時間才發佈簡短聲明稱，郭廣昌在協助“相關司法機關調查”。潮水正快速上漲。

With an equity value of $15bn, Fosun is indebted enough to warrant a junk rating from rating agencies S&P and Moody’s. Only a recent rights issue has brought net debt down from high levels; thus communication with the market is vital for Fosun.

復星的股權價值高達150億美元，其負債率高，足以被標普(S&P)和穆迪(Moody’s)等評級機構評爲垃圾級。只是最近的一次配股才使淨債務從高水平回落；因此，對復星而言，與市場的溝通至關重要。

Its debt swelled on the back of an acquisition spree, based on what it calls its “competitive advantage as a China expert”. More than 45 subsidiaries and investments sit under the listed company’s banner, spread among healthcare, steel and financials. Its latest targets have been in the latter industry. Fosun has spent over $2bn on insurers this year alone.

基於其所稱的“中國動力嫁接全球資源”理念，復星大舉併購，其債務隨之大幅飆升。這家上市公司旗下有逾45個子公司和投資項目，涵蓋醫療、鋼鐵和金融業。該公司最新的目標是在金融行業。僅僅在今年，復星就斥資逾20億美元投資於保險公司。

The shift towards financials is noteworthy. As of June, 60 per cent of Fosun International’s profits stemmed from this sector, especially insurance (a favourite of Mr Buffett). At the same point last year, financials contributed nothing. Fosun may think that owning financial companies outside of China will help fund acquisitions outside of the country’s closed capital system and capture cheap offshore financing.

這種向金融業的轉變值得注意。截止今年6月，復星國際的利潤有60%來源於金融部門，尤其是保險部門（巴菲特青睞的行業）。在去年6月，金融部門還沒有給復星國際帶來任何利潤。復星可能認爲，在中國境外擁有金融公司將有助於在本國封閉的資本體系之外爲收購提供資金，並獲得廉價的離岸融資。

The waters show no signs of ebbing, and without further clarification investors will have no choice but to assume a flood is on the way. The ark Mr Guo has built had better be sturdy.

洪水沒有退潮的跡象，在沒有進一步澄清的情況下，投資者將別無選擇，只能認爲洪水正在涌來。郭廣昌建造的方舟最好足夠結實。