明星經理人救不了雅虎 Buffett not Jobs is needed
Remember the line about the manager with a reputation for brilliance taking on a business with a reputation for poor economics? It is usually the reputation of the business that emerges intact.
還記得那句關於一位聲名卓著的管理者接管一家財務狀況聲名狼藉的公司的名言嗎？通常來說，不變的是那家公司的名聲。
Few companies have gone further than Yahoo in demonstrating the truth of Warren Buffett’s amusing dictum. Over the past three and a half years, the ailing US internet company has to all intents and purposes bet the ranch on an attempt to revive its fortunes under the leadership of the Silicon Valley superstar, Marissa Mayer.
沒有幾家公司比雅虎(Yahoo)更能證明沃倫巴菲特(Warren Buffett)這條有趣格言的正確性。過去三年半，這家每況愈下的美國互聯網公司實際上賭上了全部家當，希望在硅谷巨星梅里莎蔠爾(Marissa Mayer)的領導下重振雄風。
Nothing has been too much for the ex-Google executive. Billions of dollars have been lavished on takeovers and the financing of new product development. Ms Mayer’s eye-popping package alone could end up paying her more than $250m if she stays till next year.
這位谷歌(Google)的前高管從來不嫌多。數十億美元資金被揮霍在收購和新產品研發上。如果明年梅爾還在任的話，單單她那令人瞠目的薪酬方案最終就能使她拿到超過2.5億美元。
The reward for shareholders was supposed to come through Ms Mayer engineering a revival of Yahoo’s tired brand, repurposing it for the mobile age and launching a host of cool new apps. Yet while there has been activity a plenty, there is little of value to show for it. Fast forward to the present and Yahoo’s core internet business is still declining. Revenues are down by 9 per cent since 2012, and the company is once again leaking talented staff.
股東們原本應該從梅爾的一系列舉措——重振雅虎過氣品牌、調整發展方針以適應移動時代，以及發佈一系列炫酷的新app——中得到回報。不過，儘管梅爾動作不少，但是幾乎沒有什麼值得展示的成果。眼下，雅虎核心的互聯網業務仍然在日趨衰落。自2012年以來，雅虎收入下滑9%，該公司正再一次經歷人才流失。
A rising share price — the product of dramatic growth in the value of Yahoo’s stake in the Chinese internet firm Alibaba — cannot conceal the malaise afflicting the underlying business. Indeed, sum-of-the-parts analyses tend to suggest that Ms Mayer’s activities have come at a heavy net cost to Yahoo’s shareholders.
股價上漲——得益於雅虎所持中國互聯網公司阿里巴巴(Alibaba)股份的大幅升值——無法掩蓋其根本業務的萎靡不振。事實上，加總分析往往表明，梅爾的運籌使雅虎股東付出了沉重的代價。
Back out the value of the Alibaba stake, a minority shareholding in Yahoo Japan, and some cash and securities, and the core business is notionally valued at a negative $14bn — down more than $20bn from the $7bn-odd it was worth on the same basis when she was appointed. The brutal maths may also explain why Ms Mayer is flogging many of the shares she receives under her contract almost at the moment of vesting. According to the Equilar database she has sold stock worth some $50m to date.
除去阿里巴巴股份的價值、在日本雅虎(Yahoo Japan)所持的少數股份以及一些現金和證券，其核心業務的名義價值爲負140億美元——比梅爾上任時的70多億美元減少了逾200億美元。這道殘酷的算術題或許也解釋了梅爾爲何剛拿到按合同規定應得的公司股票後便大量出售。根據Equilar的數據，她迄今已經出售了價值5000萬美元左右的股票。
As the public temperature rises about Yahoo’s future, outsiders have predictably rounded on Ms Mayer, blaming her for the company’s poor performance. She has been accused of arrogance, waste and poor management. The real fault however lies with Yahoo’s board.
在人們對雅虎的未來議論紛紛之際，局外人不出意外地將矛頭對準梅爾，指責她造成了雅虎業績欠佳。人們指責她傲慢、浪費、管理不善。然而，真正有錯的是雅虎董事會。
It was always a dicey strategy, bringing in a star manager to attempt a complete corporate reboot. These things rarely come off — especially in Silicon Valley. It is not easy to behave like a footloose start up when you also have billions of dollars in legacy income to nurture. In any case, if there is a brilliant idea out there, a venture capitalist will most likely get to it first.
引入明星經理人以圖徹底重振企業始終是一種冒險策略。這類行動很少能成功——特別是在硅谷。在擁有數十億美元遺留收入要管理的情況下，很難像自由自在的初創企業一樣行事。無論如何，如果確實有什麼高招卓見，那風險投資者很可能第一個找上門來。
But the board also compounded the risk by the deal it struck with Ms Mayer. This was not simply extraordinarily lavish. It was also largely unconnected to the value of the core business she was managing. All of the $13bn increase in the group’s market value since 2012 has come from its ownership of minority stakes in other businesses — not least the shareholding in Alibaba. Ms Mayer has benefited richly therefore, even as she has done little to revive Yahoo’s own internet business.
雅虎董事會與梅爾達成的協議更是加劇了其中的風險。該協議並非只是格外大方，而且還與她管理的核心業務的價值基本不沾邊。自2012年以來雅虎增加的130億美元市值，全部來自於其在其他公司持有的少數股份——特別是在阿里巴巴持有的股份。因此梅爾收益豐厚，即便她沒采取什麼有效措施使雅虎自己的互聯網業務復甦。
Yahoo would have done better had it heeded Mr Buffett and adopted a more modest course. Silicon Valley is dotted with companies like Yahoo, no longer at the forefront of events but still possessed of sizeable audiences. By cutting out expensive innovation, declining search engines such as jog on quietly turning a profit. With its still large audience and $4bn in annual revenue, Yahoo could have done the same.
如果當初雅虎聽取了巴菲特的格言、採取更溫和的路線，它本可以做得更好。硅谷多的是雅虎這樣的企業——它們不再是焦點，但是仍然擁有規模可觀的用戶。通過停止昂貴的創新，等日益衰落的搜索引擎已經悄然實現盈利。在仍然擁有大量用戶和40億美元年收入的情況下，雅虎也能做到這一點。
Having bet the company’s future on the hope that Ms Mayer was some sort of latter day Steve Jobs, Yahoo now faces some hard decisions. The best way forward is to embrace the inevitable break up of the group’s structure.
由於將公司的未來寄希望於梅爾成爲第二個史蒂夫吠布斯(Steve Jobs)，雅虎如今面臨着一些艱難的抉擇。最好的出路是進行看來不可避免的資產分拆。
True, a shrunken Yahoo comprised mainly of its core business would not obviously have the resources to attract a capitalist with the appetites of Ms Mayer. But that is far from a disaster. Yahoo needs to curb the habits it developed under its famous boss for spending richly on acquisitions, wages and product development. Instead, it needs to focus on wringing the most cash from its existing assets. Headcount and wage costs need to fall fast.
誠然，主要由核心業務構成的縮水版雅虎顯然沒有資源可以吸引有着梅爾這樣胃口的資本家。但是這絕非災難。雅虎需要控制住在其明星老闆手下養成的在收購、薪水和產品研發上大肆揮霍的習慣。如今它的重點應該是從其現有資產中擠出儘可能多的現金。應該迅速削減員工總數和薪資成本。
There is a moral here for other mature tech companies. Don’t reach for the Steve Jobs solution; the idea that rebirth is just one superstar manager away. While it may produce a short-term price bump, the cost of such individuals is rarely justified by the results they deliver. Much better to do the simple things: stick to the knitting, cut costs, and live to fight another day
其他成熟科技企業可以從中吸取一條教訓。不要總想着找到第二個喬布斯，也不要相信只要有一個明星經理人就能實現企業復興。儘管這可能會帶來短期的股價上漲，但是這些人所取得的結果很少能證明啓用他們的代價是值得的。還不如把幾件簡單的事情做好：專心做自己的事情、削減成本、活下去繼續拼殺。
