对抗恐怖主义需培育社会韧性
Life goes on in Brussels, Nice and other places that have recently suffered terrorist attacks. Citizens’ resilience seems remarkable. But fear is here. It travels on the metro in Paris and on the tube in London. It sits on sunny café terraces. Friends reconsider their annual trip to Munich’s Oktoberfest.
在近来遭受过恐怖袭击的布鲁塞尔、尼斯等地，生活还在继续。公民的“韧性”看起来相当不错。但恐惧并未散去，它弥漫在巴黎、伦敦的地铁，驻足于阳光明媚的露天咖啡屋。我的朋友们正在重新考虑要不要去参加一年一度的慕尼黑啤酒节(Oktoberfest)。
Until recently, personal safety was a marginal concern to the vast majority of people in the EU. Now, terrorism challenges our way of life. We understand that violence in varying shapes and forms will be part of the world we live in.
直到最近，生活在欧盟(EU)的绝大多数人都不怎么担心自己的人身安全。如今，恐怖主义正在挑战我们的生活方式。我们知道，各种形式的暴力将成为我们所生活的这个世界的一部分。
Within months, the thinking about security in Europe has significantly changed. The EU recently published its global strategy, which sets out its core interests and principles. It rightly underlines that we cannot fend off threats abroad and that external and internal security are inextricably linked. Governments are stepping up internal security measures.
几个月时间里，欧洲关于安全问题的思路已经发生显著变化。欧盟最近公布了确立其核心利益及原则的全球战略。它准确地强调，我们无法阻挡来自国外的威胁，外部与内部安全密不可分。各国政府正在加强国内安全措施。
France has announced the creation of a national guard of volunteers from police and military reserves to help protect citizens. Germany has proposed enhanced surveillance and monitoring of refugees. These measures will improve responses in the event of a major attack and will help prevent other attacks. But given the changing nature of terrorist threats, governments cannot guarantee citizens’ safety. The global strategy acknowledges this by focusing on resilience: the capacity to recover quickly from disaster.
法国已宣布建立一支由警察和军队预备役人员组成的志愿者国民卫队，以协助保护本国公民。德国提出加强监控以及加强对难民的监视。这些措施将提升发生重大袭击时的反应能力，并将有助于阻止其他袭击。但考虑到恐怖主义威胁的多变性，各国政府无法担保本国公民的安全。上述全球战略通过聚焦韧性——迅速从灾祸中恢复的能力——承认了这一点。
We indeed need a better understanding of what determines our societies’ resilience — and how terrorists and others undermine it — rather than focusing primarily on security.
我们的确需要更好地了解是什么决定了我们社会的韧性（以及恐怖分子等群体如何削弱这种韧性），而不是只着眼于安全问题。
The greatest strength of western societies is their open, connected and diverse nature. This is also their weak spot when confronted by violence driven by religious extremism.
西方社会的最大优势在于其开放、互联以及多样化。但在面对宗教极端主义带来的暴力时，这些优势就成了薄弱点。
Pluralist societies need ethnic and religious groups to live together peacefully, with respect, tolerance and trust. But Islamist terrorism seeds distrust and conflict. If prejudice and marginalisation are the reaction to religious extremism, this can foster further radicalisation, as stigmatised minority groups may seek new, dangerous ways of self-identification. Policymakers need to engage with citizens, reinforcing integration and social cohesion, and to work against discrimination; not only to prevent further attacks but to increase resilience if they do occur.
多元化社会需要各民族、宗教群体和平地生活在一起，彼此尊重、宽容和信任。但伊斯兰恐怖主义散播猜疑和冲突。如果用歧视和边缘化某些少数族群来回应宗教极端主义，可能导致进一步的激进化，因为被抹黑的少数族群可能会寻求新的、危险的自我认同方式。决策者必须与公民保持接触，增强族群融合和社会凝聚力，反对歧视；这不仅是为了阻止新的袭击，也是为了增强社会的韧性——如果袭击真的发生的话。
Resilience is not a characteristic usually associated with countries or organisations. We are more used to thinking of it as belonging to individuals who manage to survive and thrive after a traumatic event. Psychologists have identified what makes someone resilient: positive attitudes, optimism, social support and networks of trusted friends. They emphasise the significance of economic stability and social equality. So the second task for policymakers is to provide realistic socio-economic perspectives for current and future generations, bearing in mind that globalisation and crises in Europe are likely to continue to affect its citizens for many years.
韧性并不是一个经常与国家或组织联系在一起的特征。这个词更常用于指一些人拥有的一种品质，这种品质让他们在遭遇痛苦经历后不仅挺过来、还变得更加强大。心理学家确认的让人具有韧性的因素包括：积极的态度、乐观、社会支持以及值得信赖的朋友圈。他们强调了经济稳定、社会平等的重要性。因此，决策者的第二个任务是为当下以及未来数代人提供以现实的方式看待社会和经济的视角，始终牢记全球化以及欧洲的危机可能在未来数年继续影响本国公民。
Until recently, Europeans have been passively resilient, patient in the hope that elected elites would find a way to offer them greater certainty in their jobs and in life. But as economic and societal inequality has risen, welfare promises have been broken. This may prove dangerous. As Jim Collins, a management consultant and author, has warned: “If there is anything that will destroy resilience, it is hope dashed and dashed again.”
直到最近，欧洲人一直在被动地保持韧性，耐心期待选举出的精英们会找到为他们的工作、生活提供更大确定性的方法。但随着经济、社会不平等的加剧，福利方面承诺已被打破。事实或许会证明这是危险的。正如管理顾问、作家吉姆•柯林斯(Jim Collins)曾警告过的：“如果有什么能够摧毁韧性的话，那就是一次又一次希望破灭。”
The current situation is fertile territory for those who seek strategically to undermine western liberal society. Beyond terrorism, Russian propaganda within the EU works to that effect. Trump-like populists in Europe and the US challenge western liberal democracy from within, and with it, our resilience.
对于那些试图有策略地削弱西方自由社会的人来说，当前的形势非常有利。除了恐怖主义，俄罗斯在欧盟内部的宣传也起到这样的作用。在欧洲和美国，类似特朗普的民粹主义者正在从内部挑战西方的自由民主制度以及与之联系在一起的社会韧性。
This is why democratic leaders have to join the battle of ideas and be more audible in defending their ideals. They need to fight nondemocratic, antiliberal and extremist propaganda proactively and show vision and the capacity to recast in adverse circumstances.
这就是为什么民主国家的领导人必须加入这场思想之战，更加旗帜鲜明地捍卫自己的理想。他们需要主动抗击非民主、反自由以及极端主义的宣传，并展示远见卓识以及在逆境中重新振作的能力。
Betting on passive resilience and on the hope that in the long run the western democratic model will win is risky and complacent. The disconnect between elites and people, mixed with widespread pessimism about the future, is a dangerous setting in which the populists’ siren song can destroy the “hydraulics” of resilience.
押注于被动的韧性并寄希望于西方民主模式从长远而言会取得胜利，这有些冒险和掉以轻心。精英与民众之间的脱节加上对未来的普遍悲观构成了一种危险局面，在这种局面中民粹主义者的“妖言”可能会瓦解韧性的力量。
There is a high chance of more attacks. Western societies need to rely on the processes of liberal democracy and the rule of law to overcome crises in a robust social and institutional environment. By doing so, we will not let terrorism paralyse our way of life.
未来发生更多袭击的可能性很高。西方社会需要在一个强健的社会和制度环境中依靠自由民主制度的各项程序和法治来克服各种危机。通过这种方式，我们不会让恐怖主义摧毁我们的生活方式。
