英国退欧好说不好做

Theresa May is no longer Theresa Maybe, as The Economist dubbed her. After months of gnomic statements, the prime minister appears to have locked herself in a dark room over Christmas and taken the hard decisions about Brexit. In her speech on Tuesday, she outlined a bold plan of intentions: the UK will leave the single market, regain full control over EU immigration and pursue trade agreements with the EU and other countries. In short, Mrs May confirmed that the government is pursuing a “Canada+” model. Both in the UK and elsewhere, a statement of intent is most welcome. Now, the really hard part is making it happen.

特里萨?梅(Theresa May)不再是《经济学人》(The Economist)所称的“特里萨?没准儿”(Theresa Maybe)了。在数月来净讲套话之后，梅似乎在圣诞节期间将自己关在小黑屋里，然后在退欧问题上做出了艰难决定。她在周二的演讲中概述了一个大胆的计划，说明了英国方面的意愿：英国将会退出单一市场，在欧盟移民问题上拿回全部控制权，并寻求与欧盟和其他国家签署贸易协定。简言之，梅证实英国政府将寻求一种“加拿大+”模式。无论是在英国还是在其他地方，意愿声明都最受人欢迎。如今，真正困难的部分是落实。

There was clarity too on a transition deal. Mrs May said she wishes to avoid a “disruptive cliff-edge” — and the markets responded favourably with sterling rebounding. There will be a “phased process of implementation” over a finite time but it is still unclear how this will work or what will change between the end of the Article 50 process and the ultimate break with the EU. This may be out of Britain’s hands — the EU27 nations will have their own thoughts about the terms of the transition.

梅还阐明了过渡协议问题。梅表示希望避免“置身悬崖边以致造成破坏性后果”——市场做出了积极的回应，英镑汇率反弹。英国退欧将会在限定时间内“分阶段实施”，但目前仍不清楚的是，将会如何分阶段退欧，或者从依据《里斯本条约》第50条(Article 50)启动的退欧进程结束到最终退出欧盟之间将会发生哪些方面的变化。这可能超出了英国的控制——欧盟其他27个国家将对过渡条款有自己的想法。

The largest unknown area is the UK’s future in the customs union, which provides for the frictionless movement of goods across Europe. Mrs May admitted that remaining a full member was off the table — she wants Britain to strike its own trade deals. But nor does she want to quit entirely. Instead, Britain may become “an associate member of the customs union in some way” — a rejigging of the notorious “have our cake and eat it” formula.

最大的悬念是英国在欧洲关税同盟的未来，后者使得商品可以在欧洲境内畅通无阻地流通。梅承认，保留关税同盟完全成员国身份不在讨论范围内——她想让英国签署自己的贸易协议。但她也不想完全退出。相反，英国可能“在某种意义上成为关税同盟的准成员国”——这是对出了名的“鱼与熊掌不可兼得”模式的调整。

This could prove to be the most contentious issue in the negotiations: Britain needs it to please important employers like Nissan because they use the UK as a base for exporting to Europe; the EU, meanwhile, can use it as leverage. Both sides know that pulling the plug on the customs union in its entirety could be hugely disruptive.

事实可能证明这是谈判中最具争议性的问题：英国需要关税同盟成员身份来取悦日产(Nissan)等重要雇主，因为它们将英国作为出口欧洲的基地；与此同时，欧盟可能利用它来作为筹码。双方都知道，英国完全退出关税同盟可能产生巨大的破坏。

Mrs May’s Brexit approach is to abandon all elements of EU membership and then claw some back, notably on customs and security. It is a strategy designed to satisfy the country’s political mood. She has to convince EU leaders that such an approach is in their interests, too. There is a precedent for this: during her time in the Home Office, Mrs May pushed for the UK to opt out of 130 EU Justice and Home Affairs measures. She ended up opting back in to 35 of them, including the European arrest warrant. The same approach is being taken with Brexit.

梅的退欧策略是全面放弃欧盟成员国身份，然后取回部分资格，特别是在关税和安全问题上。这项战略旨在安抚国内政治情绪。她必须让欧盟领导人相信，这种做法也符合欧盟的利益。她这套策略是有先例的：在英国内政部任职期间，梅推动英国选择退出欧盟司法和内政事务(EU Justice and Home Affairs) 130项措施。她最终选择重新加入其中的35项，包括欧洲逮捕令。她正在英国退欧问题上采取同样的策略。

Aside from the unnecessary threat that Britain will walk away if offered a “bad deal”, the tone and content of the speech was well judged. After plenty of stick brandished in Europe’s direction, there were lots of carrots in the talk of friendship and a new “strategic partnership”.

除了不必要地威胁如果欧盟给出“糟糕的协议”英国就不干了，她演讲的语气和内容还是恰当的。在多次朝着欧洲方向挥舞大棒后，谈到友谊和建立新的“战略合作”时她也拿出了许多胡萝卜。

For those who supported Remain in last year’s referendum, Mrs May has killed off their last hopes of being partly in, partly out of Europe. For Brexiters, their fears that the prime minister would not deliver on the referendum result have been calmed.

对于那些在去年公投中支持留欧的人而言，梅扼杀了他们对“部分退出、部分留下”的最后希望。而退欧派就不必再担心梅不履行公投结果了。

Today marks of the dawn of Brexit Britain. It could be a cold shower for politicians and the economy, but there seems to be no going back. It is time for everyone to pull together to make it work.

今日标志着英国退欧时代的开端。对政治人士和经济而言，这可能会是一次冷水浴，但似乎已无法回头。现在是所有人团结合作实现退欧的时刻了。