《穹顶之下》的影响不止于环保

A Chinese documentary critical of the country's dense smog has made waves online, but could augur positive economic benefits.

批评中国浓重雾霾的纪录片《穹顶之下》在网络上引发了多轮讨论热潮。不过，该片还可能预示着积极的经济影响。

The absence of negative ramifications for Under the Dome's producer, Chai Jing, has been widely interpreted as a sign of greater official tolerance for discussion of China's devastating pollution problems. Government censors have permitted the 104-minute film to stream on major internet portals while Chen Jining, environmental protection minister, said on Sunday he had texted Ms Chai to thank her for a film "worthy of admiration". Indeed, it is being compared to Rachel Carson's seminal work 'Silent Spring,' widely regarded as educating a generation of Americans in the 1960s about the importance of protecting the natural environment.

《穹顶之下》制作者柴静并未因此受到处理，这一现象已被广泛解读为中国官方对污染问题相关讨论将持更宽容态度。目前，中国政府的审查机关允许这部时长104分钟的影片在主要互联网门户网站上在线播放。此外，中国环保部长陈吉宁周日曾表示，他已给柴静发过短信，感谢她制作了一部“值得敬佩”的影片。事实上，这部纪录片正在被与雷切尔•卡森(Rachel Carson)的开创性著作《寂静的春天》(Silent Spring)相提并论。后者曾被广泛视为在1960年代教育了一代美国人，让他们认识到了保护自然环境的重要性。

But Zhiwei Zhang, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank, argues that the video could also have macro implications, both in terms of environmental regulation and protection as well as the media sector: “It was reported by Xinhua that the Minister of Environment Protection personally texted Chai Jing to thank her for the effort. This suggests to us that the government will likely take environmental protection more seriously, rebalancing the economy from merely concentrating on an investment-intensive model.

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)首席中国问题经济学家张智威称，该视频还可能在宏观层面产生影响，这种影响不仅涉及环境监管和保护方面，还包括媒体部门。他说：“据新华社报道，环保部长曾以个人名义给柴静发短信，赞扬她的努力。这一点暗示我们，中国政府可能会更严肃地对待环保问题，令经济摆脱投资密集型增长模式。

“Another important implication is the potential benefits of reforms in China. The media sector has been heavily regulated with little space for independent producers like Chai Jing. The popularity of her video shows that there is significant room for productivity growth if the government allows more private investment to enter sectors currently monopolized by the SOEs. As monopolized sectors are typically service oriented, such reform would channel more investment into environmental-friendly business, and help to contain pollution.

“另一个重要影响是，它可能为中国改革带来潜在好处。在中国，媒体部门始终受到严格监管，柴静这样的独立制作人没有什么发挥的空间。她的视频的热播，表明政府只要允许更多私人投资进入目前被国企垄断的部门，就能为提高生产率创造巨大空间。由于垄断部门通常是服务业的，这种改革将把更多投资导向对环境有益的企业，从而有助于遏制污染。”

Before getting ahead of ourselves, the steps - particular in the latter scenario - are likely to be small. Ms Jing financed the film herself and it already seems like the authorities are clamping down discussion of the film. As the FT reported earlier, the official Xinhua News Agency has deleted at least two original articles on the documentary from its website, including one about the environment minister's praise for the film.

不过，对此也不要高兴得太早了，上述影响的显现可能会十分缓慢——尤其是在后一个方面。事实上，柴静这部影片是她自筹资金制作的。此外，似乎当局正在打压对该片的讨论。正如英国《金融时报》此前报道的，中国官方的新华社(Xinhua)已从其网站上删除了至少两篇有关该纪录片的原创报道，其中一篇还曾提到环保部长对该片的赞扬。

Whatever is going on behind the scenes, however, nobody can deny the severity of the pollution issue in China - not least the officials in Beijing this week for the NPC meeting.

不过，不论幕后发生了什么，没人能够否认中国污染问题的严重性——本周参加人大会议的北京官员也同样不能否认这一点。