日本考慮加入亞投行 中方淡定迴應
Masato Kitera told the Financial Times he agreed with Japanese business leaders’ belief that the country would sign up to the China-led development bank by June.
日本駐中國大使木寺昌人(Masato Kitera)對英國《金融時報》表示，他同意日本商界領袖的看法，即日本將最遲在6月份加入這家由中國主導的開發銀行。“The business community woke up late, but now they have mounted a big campaign for the AIIB which appears to be very effective,” Mr Kitera said.
“商界醒悟得比較晚，但現在他們大舉發起了加入亞投行的活動，似乎很有效，”木寺昌人表示。
The $50bn AIIB has proved a flashpoint for international alliances, with Washington increasingly rattled as traditional allies — starting with the UK and including South Korea and Australia in recent days — break ranks.
500億美元的亞投行已被證明是國際聯盟的“閃點”，令華盛頓方面越來越慌亂的是，傳統盟友（從英國開始，近日還包括韓國和澳大利亞）一個接一個自行其是。A Japanese move to join the bank would be a reversal of rhetoric and, for China, the biggest coup yet given the fractious relationship between the two Asian powers. Japan also has strong links to the rival Asian Development Bank, the head of which it traditionally appoints, and has in the past questioned the need for a new bank.
日本申請加入亞投行，將標誌着日方説辭的逆轉，對中國來説，鑑於兩個亞洲大國之間的棘手關係，這也將是迄今最大的收穫。日本與亞投行的競爭對手亞洲開發銀行（Asian Development Bank，簡稱“亞行”）有很強的聯繫，亞行行長傳統上由日本任命。日本曾對成立一家新的開發銀行的必要性提出質疑。Barely two weeks ago, the cabinet secretary rowed back on more positive comments from Taro Aso, the finance minister.
僅僅兩個星期前，日本內閣官房長官還刻意淡化了財務大臣麻生太郎(Taro Aso)比較積極的言論。“We are cautious about joining,” said Yoshihide Suga, chief cabinet secretary. “Minister Aso’s position is the same.”
“我們對加盟持謹慎態度，”日本內閣官房長官菅義偉(Yoshihide Suga)表示。“麻生大臣的立場是一樣的。”The China-led development bank dominated discussions at the annual conference of China’s Boao Forum over recent days and has become a gauge both of China’s growing clout in international economic and financial matters and the corresponding decline of US influence.
亞投行在近日中國舉行的博鰲亞洲論壇年會上成為主要討論話題，中國主導的這家開發銀行還已成為一個風向標，説明中國在國際經濟和金融事務中的影響力不斷上升，而美國的影響力相應下降。Representatives of virtually every country in attendance at Boao also pledged support for the institution.
在博鰲，幾乎每一個與會國家的代表都承諾支持亞投行。Japan would have to weigh up various factors before making a decision to break with the US on the issue, not least the finalisation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, one of the biggest trade deals in history, and a visit by Mr Abe to Washington next month.
日本在這個問題上做出與美國分道揚鑣的決定之前，將不得不權衡各種因素，包括史上最大貿易協定之一《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，簡稱TPP）的最終敲定，以及安倍下月訪問華盛頓。No country was seen to be as supportive of the US position as Japan — in part because many officials in both countries saw the AIIB as a direct challenge to the Japanese-controlled Asian Development Bank.
此前日本被視為最鐵桿支持美國立場的國家，部分原因是美日兩國的不少官員認為亞投行是對日本控制的亞行的直接挑戰。But Japanese executives look on China’s ambitious plans to help build infrastructure in the region as a huge business opportunity, as well as a chance to help repair frayed relations.
但在日本企業高管看來，中國幫助亞洲地區建設基礎設施的雄心勃勃的計劃是一個巨大的商機，也是修復兩國間不佳關係的契機。This month, for example, a group of Mitsubishi Group executives based in China met Jin Liqun, who will run the infrastructure bank, to offer their support. Mr Jin, once a senior official at the ADB, is a familiar face to many Japanese. They say they have confidence, in part because of his participation, that the bank will adhere to best practice.
本月，三菱集團(Mitsubishi Group)常駐中國的一組高管會晤了將要執掌亞投行的金立羣，表達他們的支持。曾經在亞行擔任高級官員的金立羣，是很多日本人熟悉的面孔。他們表示，金立羣的參與使他們更有信心認為，亞投行將堅持最佳實踐。Neither the ADB nor other multilateral financial institutions have anything like the resources necessary to finance Asia’s infrastructure needs. And beyond Japan, the region lacks private sector institutions such as insurers with deep enough pockets to fund such large, long-term projects, while new capital requirements discourage banks from doing so.
無論是亞行還是其他多邊金融機構，都根本沒有滿足亞洲基礎設施建設需求所必需的那種資源。除了日本以外，亞洲還缺乏保險商之類的私營部門機構，擁有足夠雄厚的財力為大型長期的項目提供資金，同時新的資本要求使商業銀行不願這麼做。One former US official at Boao said that if the Japanese joined the AIIB, Washington would be forced to soften its stance and might choose to adopt observer status. So far, US officials have said they merely want to ensure the bank adopts best practice and transparency in its lending.
美國一名前任官員在博鰲表示，如果日本加入了亞投行，華盛頓將被迫軟化立場，可能選擇申請觀察員地位。迄今為止，美國官員表示，他們只是希望確保亞投行採用最佳實踐，在放貸中做到透明。The AIIB, as well as the New Development Bank (better known as the “Brics bank”) and the “one belt, one road” initiative, is also seen as a way for China to deal with its huge excess capacity in industries ranging from cement and glass to iron and steel.
亞投行、新開發銀行（New Development Bank，更為人熟知的名稱是“金磚國家開發銀行”）以及“一帶一路”倡議，也被視為中國應對多個產業（水泥、玻璃、鋼鐵）嚴重產能過剩的一種方式。Some officials in India, for example, privately say that they fear the projects will cause deepening problems for them as China attempts to export its deflation. But such voices are a minority in Asia.
例如，印度一些官員私下表示擔心，隨着中國企圖輸出自己的通縮，相關項目將對他們造成不斷加深的問題。但這種聲音在亞洲屬於少數。Additional reporting by Robin Harding in Tokyo
羅賓•哈丁(Robin Harding)東京補充報道
